The Brexit Thread

[Tactical Genius]

I'm not sure the long extension is guaranteed.

A no deal Brexit isn't in anyone's interest so an extension of sorts will be given. It's just the presentation of such that doesn't make either side look weak.
The EU are well aware of the British propensity for extreme violence when they feel wronged so will tread carefully.

[Lang Spoon]

I think the main reason for a long extension fudge is protecting Ireland from the shitwinds rather than a fear of teh Brits descending on the continent or JRM and the fuckin army turning Britain into 70s South American regimes.

[Diable Rouge]

Looks like it could be 1 or 2 a.m. before there's white smoke.

[Toby Gymshorts]

Kate Hoey on Newsnight states that "Parliament shouldn't be involved in Brexit".

She's an absolute fucking moron.

[Lang Spoon]

Her hair is bigoted

[tuckwat]

October 31st

[ursus arctos]

At least most people will already be in horror costume

[Satchmo Distel]

New PM in place by then?

[tee rex]

New PM in place by then?

Meeting President Pence and King Charles.

You know, when people talk politics we often reach for precedents and analogies but this one has me stumped. It's not really the same as delaying an election, a bit more like a troop withdrawal. Definitely happening, forever postponed. What a mess.

[San Bernardhinault]

Now we're making it past the Euro Elections, there's no particular barrier to ever extending the extension forever, right?

[Nocturnal Submission]

I'm not even sure what the point of the extension is. It's not as though the complexities of the situation have suddenly become apparent to us and we suddenly need to absorb them and come up with an agreed response. All an extension does is take some of the tension out of the immediate situation but leaves us exactly where we were before.

You didn't ask me, but here's my proposal . The following votes in the HoC to be decided by a simple majority. Abstentions irrelevant.

Begin.

Leave or Remain/Referendum.

If Leave, vote on three most popular choices in most recent indicative vote.

Winner of indicative vote V May's deal.

Result binding.

If Remain/Referendum, vote on revoking A50 V second referendum.

Result binding.

If referendum, proceed through Leave-related voting process (above).

Winner of indicative vote V May's deal decision is the Leave option on the second referendum ballot paper.

End.

[ursus arctos]

Now we're making it past the Euro Elections, there's no particular barrier to ever extending the extension forever, right?

Only the fact the fact that the chances of getting each of the 27 to agree to that are infinitesimal.

[Satchmo Distel]

Is there a subtext, at least from Macron, that there will be no extensions beyond October 31st under any circumstances?

And unlike Teresa May's red line of June 30th, he has the power to make it stick.

[Lang Spoon]

There is consumption for domestic audience then realpolitik. I'm guessing Macron would go past October if there were elections or a new Ref. In theory this could be infinite postponement till the other 26 grow tired of protecting Ireland.

[tee rex]

Apparently they're still talking, or drinking, into the small hours.

Typical sneaky Europeans, waiting until the people who tell Britain what to think have gone to bed.

[Snake Plissken]

I'm not even sure what the point of the extension is. It's not as though the complexities of the situation have suddenly become apparent to us and we suddenly need to absorb them and come up with an agreed response. All an extension does is take some of the tension out of the immediate situation but leaves us exactly where we were before.

You didn't ask me, but here's my proposal ..

And how, exactly is that going to accomplish the most important thing in this whole saga? I refer, of course, to keeping the Tories in power.

[ursus arctos]

I believe that it is slowly dawning on May that that goal (which has been her only lodestar other than ending freedom of movement) may simply not be feasible any longer.

When the likes of the Telegraph start praising Francois as the perfect MP, it is difficult to see how that portion of the party will ever recognise reality.

[Belhaven]

I am also curious what they think will happen six months down the road to change the present situation. If the national interest had been top priority a cross-party agreement could have been reached a long time ago.

[Satchmo Distel]

Slight favourite now might be No Deal on October 31st under a new PM. The other EU states will have made their preparations and some safety net for Ireland will be in place. Labour does not have to bale out May and the Brexiteers are not budging.

If France were willing to go beyond October 31st, they'd have agreed it yesterday.

[Levin]

Did the UK agree to give up their Commissioner in the end? I saw some talk about that yesterday.

[Sean of the Shed]

This should become as normal as calling Neil Warnock Colin Wanker

https://twitter.com/NoRemainNoGain/status/1116046872660140032?s=19

[ursus arctos]

It appears not to have featured as a condition to the extension as finally agreed by the EU27

[Nocturnal Submission]

That'll be a relief for Francois.

[Moonlight Shadow]

Actually, 1st of November is when new commissioners start their stint at the EC, so the 31st of October makes sense...

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Another six months of this shite. Maybe we'll be swallowed by a black hole first