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    The irony of UKIP and Brexit potentially splitting European votes between them, and leaving more seats to Remainers as a result:

    http:/twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1115320751459057664

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      Again it seems that May is just running down the clock here.

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        To what end, though?

        If the EU offers her a long extension, isn't that more likely to get a majority than either her deal or no deal?

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          I think the end game is stopping the Tory Party splintering. She has to keep the ultras in the party, and that means she can't stab them in the back. They have to have got to the position of a Brexit-with-Deal without the ultras voting for it. Running down the clock theoretically forces the non-lunatics in Westminster to vote for her WA because the No Deal alternative is so disastrous. That allows the Brexit Ultras in the Tory Party to not be responsible for Britain staying in the Customs Union, and therefore not be betrayed by May. I think that's the goal.

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            It's always been about the Tory Party splintering. Right from promising the bloody referendum in the first place, it was always about the Tories and their MPs. And we've ended up with someone in charge who has been described as "married to two things, her husband and the Party" and what is right for the country can be damned.

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              It's looking increasingly likely that no long extension will be granted.

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                Unless May agrees to a Customs Union.

                The EU have treated the UK with kid gloves so far, that looks like the first proper punch.

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                  My settled status application did not take long, 6 days and I got confirmation it was granted yesterday....Can't fault the process but I was a dead easy case really.

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                    Excellent news, MS. Very pleased for you.

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                      Surprised how speedy it was but do note I had been granted ILR in 99 (before Switzerland signed the FoM agreement with EU) so I was probably a piss easy case to deal with. That said, the app itself worked well for me, nothing complicated for someone like me, with traceable HMRC data and a biometric passport, which the app can scan and the whole process was completed in 30 mins.

                      I would suggest to anyone who needs to apply to renew their passport and get a new biometric one if they haven't one yet, it will save a lot of bother with the recording of the biometric data (cost/travel to a scanning centre) and you are then quiet for 10 years (the onus is on you to keep your details up to date on the website, change of id needs to be recorded as well as mobile number, email adress, postal adress, ec). On the website, you have a section to send an email to your employer informing them of your status and I suppose anyone who asks if you are legal. Again, pretty straightforward. I rather be issued a dedicated ID card though or get a stamp in my passport.

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                        Tusk backs one-year extension with conditions, as trailed:
                        This is why I believe we should also discuss an alternative, longer extension. One possibility would be a flexible extension, which would last only as long as necessary and no longer than one year, as beyond that date we will need to decide unanimously on some key European projects. The flexibility would allow to terminate the extension automatically, as soon as both sides have ratified the Withdrawal Agreement. The UK would be free to leave whenever it is ready. And the EU27 would avoid repeated Brexit summits. Importantly, a long extension would provide more certainty and predictability by removing the threat of constantly shifting cliff-edge dates. Furthermore, in the event of a continued stalemate, such a longer extension would allow the UK to rethink its Brexit strategy.
                        Some of you have raised concerns that the UK's continued presence as a departing EU country would pose risks for the functioning of the EU27 at a time of key decisions on its future. To address them we would need to agree on a number of conditions: no re-opening of the Withdrawal Agreement; no start of the negotiations on the future, except for the Political Declaration; the UK would have to maintain its sincere cooperation also during this crucial period, in a manner that reflects its situation as a departing member state. We should remember, however, that the United Kingdom will remain a member state with full rights and obligations. And, in any event, the UK can revoke Article 50 at any time, as stated by the European Court of Justice.

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                          Which will allow Macron to declare victory when it is pared back to 31 December.

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                            Are any of those "conditions" meaningful or enforceable? They're either things that weren't going to happen anyway - like renegotiating the WA - or completely vague and unenforceable - like maintaining sincere cooperation.

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                              Andrea Leadsom was blithering on about reopening the WA only this morning. Just because it can't happen isn't going to be enough for the Brexit fantasists, especially if they have the opportunity for another 12 months of bleating and whining about it. So, yes, the EU absolutely will want that stuff in writing - probably in large type - so they can just point at it and tell the children to go away.

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                                The key clause perhaps is that if the UK does not participate in the EU elections, it has to leave on June 1st. May definitely does not want to be in those elections.

                                Last edited by Satchmo Distel; 09-04-2019, 19:10.

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                                  I was hoping they would refuse any extension forcing parliament into a binary choice, no deal or revoke. I think revoke would win.

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                                    The problem is that the EU can't be seen to be dictating to that extent. I mean, the UK really needs an intervention right now but they can't do it.

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                                      Originally posted by Satchmo Distel View Post
                                      The key clause perhaps is that if the UK does not participate in the EU elections, it has to leave on June 1st. May definitely does not want to be in those elections.
                                      The law organising them in the UK comes into effect tomorrow, so she only avoids them if the WA is passed.

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                                        In that case we are look at a load of Farages being elected and throwing such an amount of shit in the EU Parliament that the UK is thrown out.

                                        Infact I'm surprised that the draft is not stronger on this: one tantrum and you're gone.

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                                          I don't know that's guaranteed Satchmo - turnout has historically been very low, the last three years might have some impact on that.

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                                            It's actually not so clear cut that the loons will benefit that much, for a start there us two competing parties now and the pro-European movement is quite fired up.

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                                              There isn't any procedure for expelling a Member State.

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                                                Plus non-British EU citizens can vote in the EP elections unlike the R and GEs.

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                                                  Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
                                                  There isn't any procedure for expelling a Member State.
                                                  No, but if I were, say, France, I would want it written into the extension of A50 that either side could terminate the extension early.

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                                                    I suspect the Leavers lose MEP seats, not gain them. The last European Parliament election was UKIP's best ever performance in any election, and had dismal turnout. That will not be true, plus there's the split party business going on. It's possible some of the Tory MEPs who actually take the job seriously might be replaced by Brexiteers, but I have a feeling the Tory brass's desire for some order will check that to an extent. At best you'll get Hannan types who as far as I can tell don't scream and yell and make a fool of themselves in the chamber like Farage does.

                                                    I also think the Tory Brexit MPs know this, which is why they're waving their arms furious about having a Parliamentary election. Britain returns a largely pro-Remain MEP intake and the case for a second referendum gets much stronger.

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