The Brexit Thread

[Lang Spoon]

Me no speaka the cricket.

[Lang Spoon]

I'm pretty sure the Irish government would be fine with the UK staying in the customs union instead.

But then no mythical trade deals. That’s what obsesses the Spectator types, the lure of remaking the (at least) Anglo Empire. Except this time all the cards are held by the stout sheepherders of New Zealand, the dirty chicken stackers of the US. God knows what those greasy Canadians would try to pull given the chance. If they’re getting antsy about Oirish bullying them, imagine when the whiteish ex empire screws every last bit of innovative jam out the Brits?

[Nefertiti2]

Don't know where to post this but anyway- interesting local election result

Bishops Frome and Cradley (Herefordshire) result:

GRN: 45.3% (+13.9)
CON: 28.8% (-39.8)
LDEM: 24.1% (+24.1)
LAB: 1.8% (+1.8)

Green GAIN from Conservative.

[Nefertiti2]

not such good news in stroud, bizarrely

Chalford (Stroud) result:

CON: 45.2% (+8.6) HOLD.
LAB: 25.4% (-6.1)
GRN: 20.6% (-11.3)
LDEM: 8.8% (+8.8)

[Lang Spoon]

It’s a pity Labour don’t have to spend much time really listening to that vote (they’ve nowhere else to go under FPTP).

[Nefertiti2]

the financial times on buyers remorse

I asked Peter Kellner, the former president of YouGov and a veteran pollster, whether he thought “buyer’s remorse” could grow. He said any answer needs to start with an examination of who the leavers are.

Some two-thirds of leavers, he said, are committed Brexiters with deep-seated views about the EU, immigration and sovereignty that are unlikely to shift. The remaining third are what he calls “instrumental” leavers. They do not have a particularly strong view of the EU but think Brexit means the NHS will get more money, that living standards will rise and that the*UK*will be back on the route to prosperity.

“That latter group is key,” he says, “because if they start to shift in numbers then the entire game starts to change.”

Mr Kellner’s initial guess is that any new shift to the remain side will be limited. “A lot of people still have a ‘cake and eat it’ view of Brexit. They think the negotiations in Brussels will end up all right and that things will end up looking much as they are.”

It should also be pointed out that many voters believe that the financial costs are being needlessly imposed by the EU on the*UK. Back in April, a*Guardian/ICM poll*suggested that at least two-thirds of voters would oppose the*UK*paying an “exit bill” to the EU of £10bn or more.

Where Mr Kellner believes there could be a dramatic shift is if the Brussels talks break down next year, or if it appears that the UK will end up with a painful deal. “Then you will see a contest between two camps,” says Mr Kellner. “On one side will be the Remainers, who will say: ‘You were lied to at the referendum and need to turn back.’ On the other side will be Leavers, who will argue that Britain’s problems have been brought on by those evil people in Brussels and we need a clean break from Europe.”

In short, we could see a significant shift in favour of remain next year — and a second referendum — if the Brussels talks become deadlocked. But it is also possible, of course, that UK public*opinion will rally further behind calls for Britain to simply walk away without a deal.

[Snake Plissken]

Polly Toynbee reckons Corbyn's coming through on Brexit, does she? Does this look like the Twitter feed of someone who's doing that? It's almost like he's playing a panel game where a horn honks if he says the word.

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn

He may well still come through, of course.

Toynbee is wrong on everything. If she says his position on an issue is now similar to hers then she is the one doing the moving.

[Etienne]

Nef, you really can't extrapolate anything from individual by-elections. They are 70% about which local candidate has put in more effort. Much as I'd like to think the Greens are going to sweep the West Midlands (and they have had some good recent results in Herefordshire) it's not imminent.

[Nefertiti2]

Nef, you really can't extrapolate anything from individual by-elections. They are 70% about which local candidate has put in more effort. Much as I'd like to think the Greens are going to sweep the West Midlands (and they have had some good recent results in Herefordshire) it's not imminent.

True, just thought it was an interesting outlier

Anyway, back to Brexit
Liam fox has been talking about trade. Apparently if anything goes wrong British business will be to blame.

"I can agree as many trade agreements as I like, but if British business doesn’t want to export, then that doesn’t do us any good."

[Etienne]

But it's the remainers who are "talking down the country"

[Ginger Yellow]

Bloomberg reporting that Britain's "offer" on the border is to give Ireland a "process veto" in phase two. Which it already has.

[Nefertiti2]

Flying rights next




Brexit negotiators are taking a tough stance on aviation that would dramatically restrict UK airline operating rights unless Britain follows*the bloc’s laws and courts, according to leaked planning documents.*

The EU’s 27 remaining member states have begun preparing for talks on future EU-UK relations, outlining models of co-operation in aviation, fisheries and research that strictly adhere to precedents in existing arrangements with non-EU countries.*

In the area of aviation in particular,*the European Commission*sees little room for creativity or “bespoke” arrangement that the UK is hoping to negotiate, according to a presentation to the EU member states seen by the Financial Times.*

If Britain left the single market, the paper states,*UK-owned airlines would automatically lose existing flying rights in Europe’s “fully liberalised” aviation market, and would no longer be entitled to EU recognition of approvals for parts or certificates for airworthiness.

Ownership restrictions would also apply, forcing groups such as Ryanair and International Airlines Group to*buy out British shareholders to*ensure they were 50 per cent owned and controlled by EU nationals, in order to continue operating routes within the EU.*

“UK red lines mean exit from the single market,” the commission presentation said. “All rights, obligations and benefits derived cease. No traffic rights — end of market access; ownership & control rules — third country restrictions kick in; end of mutual recognition of certificates; end of participation in European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA).”*

“Air freedoms [are] granted by way of international agreement. What is not expressly agreed is prohibited,” the paper adds.*

If strictly applied in a no-deal Brexit scenario, such an approach would lead to the grounding of many UK flights — something British ministers have dismissed as scaremongering. The paper notes there are no World Trade Organisation fallback options for aviation and makes clear that “old bilateral agreements between member states and the UK are not revived”.*

Does anybody seriously think the Spanish government, which would see hotel bookings collapse in 2019, is going to intervene to stop the planes flying? Of course they’re not


The UK sees more scope for a closer relationship, even outside the remit of European courts. Chris Grayling, Britain’s transport minister, has said Britain is likely to remain a member of the EASA “at the end of the negotiations” and maintain similar flying rights.

“Does anybody seriously think the Spanish government, which would see hotel bookings collapse in 2019, is going to intervene to stop the planes flying? Of course they’re not,” Mr Grayling told the BBC.*

In an explanation of the types of aviation agreement*possible, the commission paper notes that full market access — including “up to nine freedoms of the air” — would require “full transposition and application of the EU acquis [of aviation law]” and “alignment with European Court of Justice interpretation of EU acquis”.*

The business model of UK-based carriers currently relies on the full range of nine flying rights, including*provisions that allow airlines such as*EasyJet or*British Airways to fly from Madrid to Berlin or from Milan to Rome.*

A second co-operation model outlined is based on the Common Aviation Area agreements with Georgia and Moldova. That model would only require partial application of EU law and no EU court rulings — more acceptable conditions for the UK government.*

But the commission argues that in this case, UK operators would be allowed to operate flights to or from EU destinations only if they start or end in Britain, the so-called third and fourth freedoms of the air. EU ownership restrictions would also apply.*

The third model identified by the commission negotiators would offer the type of market access enjoyed by US or Canadian airlines. These include lighter regulatory obligations and no role for European courts.

EasyJet and some other UK carriers have already begun to establish European offshoots in an attempt to minimise potential disruption after Brexit.*

Big European carriers such as*Lufthansa and*Air France*see the potential to exploit Brexit talks to squeeze out budget carrier rivals such as EasyJet and Ryanair. Diplomats say France and Germany have taken firm positions on the requirements for UK access to the aviation market in preliminary discussions."*

[Duncan Gardner]

There's now a Green Gang of Four on Herefordshire county council All women I found that essence rare indeed...

[Nefertiti2]

There's now a Green Gang of Four on Herefordshire county council All women I found that essence rare indeed...

Congratulations, Duncan.

[wiblflibl]

Yes, that's Entertainment!

[Snake Plissken]

“Does anybody seriously think the Spanish government, which would see hotel bookings collapse in 2019, is going to intervene to stop the planes flying? Of course they’re not,” Mr Grayling told the BBC.*

So, we're the only country who go to Spain for holidays?

[Nefertiti2]

That Britain's negotations seems to be dependant on Chris Grayling saying"Does anybody seriously think..."

Did anybody seriously think that someone as incompetent as Chris Grayling would be Justice Secretary?

[Tubby Isaacs]

There's now a Green Gang of Four on Herefordshire county council All women I found that essence rare indeed...

Next door ward to my parents gained last night, DG.

[Duncan Gardner]

So, we're the only country who go to Spain for holidays?

About 23% of foreign tourists last year were from Britain says wiki

Tubbs- Ellie chowns who won yesterday has represented us in the election tv debates

[E10 Rifle]

There's a bit of local internal planning and development stuff going on in Stroud that's working, unfairly it would seem, against Labour. My sources tell me.

[Nefertiti2]

The new position on Brexit lasted about 40 minutes:

via Jessica Elgot

'No 10 just told reporters that any possibility of Northern Ireland staying in the customs union is "matter for the negotiations".'



'Bit of a row back here, Number 10 says this was not intended to signify a change in position, emphasise UK is leaving customs union and single market.'

[Pérou Flaquettes]

True, just thought it was an interesting outlier

Anyway, back to Brexit

Liam fox has been talking about trade. Apparently if anything goes wrong British business will be to blame.

In your link Nef:

Dr Fox's broadside, in an interview with the House magazine, echoes his claim last year that Britain has "become too lazy and too fat", and that bosses prefer playing golf on Friday afternoons to working.

Classic. Liam "shared values with Duterte" Fox reverting to type and insulting all and sundry, not just ordinary workers like his mates Raab, Patel & co routinely do (Britannia Unchained)
(mind, give her her due, Patel is certainly no shirker, even during her holiday she grafts like a mule - could explain why she does a half-ass job - she's very keen on busman’s holidays too). I wonder what Raab, Truss & co do during their hols... Visit sweatshop factories in China for inspiration?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Fox has lectured business before.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37324491

During his speech to activists on Thursday evening he said there needed to be a change in British business culture and said people had got to stop thinking about exporting as an opportunity and start thinking about it as a duty.
"This country is not the free-trading nation it once was. We have become too lazy, and too fat on our successes in previous generations," he said.
He added: "Companies who could be contributing to our national prosperity - but choose not to because it might be too difficult or too time-consuming or because they can't play golf on a Friday afternoon - we've got to be saying to them if you want to share in the prosperity of our country you have a duty to contribute to the prosperity of our country."

[Ginger Yellow]

we've got to be saying to them if you want to share in the prosperity of our country you have a duty to contribute to the prosperity of our country

Could say the same thing about the cabinet.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Kate Hoey goes to Switzerland to have her picture taken in front of the customs infrastructure she thinks they don't have.