The Brexit Thread

[ursus arctos]

And chaser

[URL="https://twitter.com/goodclimate/status/1173649554895511553?s=21"]https://twitter.com/goodclimate/status/1173649554895511553[/URL]

[Lang Spoon]

Kuennsberg as The Voice Of U.K. is so infuriating and depressing it's unreal. The BBC is a worthless piece of shit. Rte were shitebag bastards when Ireland started the crash spiral but they were never as craven as this. She is barely a journalist, the Beeb sliding toward Russia Today shite.

[Nefertiti2]

This is really good, from Danny Dorling


because Turnout was so important it was the South East what won it

[URL]https://twitter.com/ta_mills/status/1173704712245391360?s=21[/URL]

[Lang Spoon]

There's always that total fuckin eejit Swinson for comic relief but.

[Nefertiti2]

Maitlis as fearless as Kuennsberg

[URL]https://twitter.com/mwardjourno/status/1173713237109542917?s=21[/URL]

[Nefertiti2]

Whilst That Nice Jo Swinson is still supporting austerity

[URL]https://twitter.com/johnmcdonnellmp/status/1173710890442661890?s=21[/URL]

[Lang Spoon]

I hope George C's imaginary friend is misinformed and she loses her seat like a mofo.

[George C.]

Nothing imaginary... about Swinson hanging on. Or shooting the messenger.

Sadly.

[Lang Spoon]

I'm still amazed yer pal does surveys for the non political Scottish govt.

[George C.]

Like was said before his bosses have lost interest in polling most seats, bar marginals, well the last I heard.

[Lang Spoon]

As an aside that Cunt from Hard Talk is as much a cunt on refugees/"economic migrants" as any kuenssberg fuckface. Fuck the fuck off Stephen Suckur. As Both Sides a cunt as Gavin Cunting Bastard Esler in times gone by.

[Lang Spoon]

Like was said before his bosses have lost interest in polling most seats, bar marginals, well the last I heard.

And the Scottish Civil Service engage him
in this?

[Lang Spoon]

Cos the Scottish Govt just means devolved civil service governed by Holyrood Pols.

[George C.]

And the Scottish Civil Service engage him
in this?

He doesn't have that detailed information, just says done a lot of 'nuts & bolts' jobs for the Scottish government, including working with various industries.

Personally reckon he's a pretty small cog in a big wheel, he can spot certain trends based on data seen, but that's it.

[Lang Spoon]

But you referred to him polling for the Scottish Govt, not the SNP. I'd be very surprised if the U.K. govt (and not the Tories) were conducting private polling in marginal constituencies. Either seems questionable.

[Lang Spoon]

Certainly this would not be tolerated of the civil service in the 26 County State.

[ursus arctos]

That Dorling piece is illuminating, but I would like to see him do more work trying to explain why so many Home Counties residents voted Leave.

There is a similar lack of attention here to relatively well off suburban Republicans who voted for Trump, but a series of plausible drivers have been developed even for that understudied population.

[Antepli Ejderha]

Spin, spin sugar.

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1173610626049966080

People will believe that nonsense I'm afraid.

[Antepli Ejderha]

Hard to tell the BBC from the Sun

[URL]https://twitter.com/stevepeers/status/1173609919939010561?s=21[/URL]

Is Steve Peers from the Sun?

Johnson has seemingly got away with his comments on the child abuse inquiries. I only read this yesterday and it happened on Friday, imagine if Corbyn had said anything similar.

It's not a lie it's an alternative fact etc. As Johnson never does interviews where he will be properly scrutinised he'll do this again and again.

[Nefertiti2]

Tom Newton Dunn is from the Sun. Peers is an academic.
the Sun has a bit of a split personality depending who they’re talking to

[URL]https://twitter.com/greenslader/status/1173870942386348034?s=21[/URL]

[George C.]

But you referred to him polling for the Scottish Govt, not the SNP. I'd be very surprised if the U.K. govt (and not the Tories) were conducting private polling in marginal constituencies. Either seems questionable.

Apparently he did some poll about the hypothetical support for another Indy referendum and about SME readiness for Brexit, for the SG. Plus other more benign topics.

The rest is more overt polls, largely in marginal seats, probably for SNP, Tories & LDs, the last about parachuting various individuals into 3 way marginals.

[Etienne]

Anthony Wells has put a reasonably long blog post up on https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ about the methodological differences between pollsters. Obviously as someone who works for YouGov he is sympathetic to how they are dealing with false recall, but I think it's a fairly clear explanation of the issues.

[ursus arctos]

Interesting piece. Pollsters are generally much more aware of the limitations and common pitfalls of their craft than media reports of their results would lead one to believe.

Am I right in understanding that all of the polls mentioned are primarily using a pre-defined sample that is largely consistent over time?

[George C.]

Ever since 2015, UA, have been collectively far more self aware.

As ever, is supposed to represent an 'exact' demographic of the current population whatever that is, albeit usually based on obsolete data.
And, er, tweaked 'to fit', thus.

[Janik]

Well the piece that linked a page or two ago about the difference between what people said they had voted in 2017 immediately after the election and now (with a 20% 'shy Labour' outcome to that bit of research) noted that the panel was unchanged.