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    Originally posted by San Bernardhinault View Post

    So what would Labour try to change in their renegotiation?
    Customs union for sure, that is something everybody knows and understands. They can scribble that in tomorrow. That would significantly turn down the heat on the backstop.

    Regulatory alignment for worker’s rights and the environment. Useful considering Johnson’s plans.

    this hasn’t been explicitly mentioned, but I’m pretty sure we’re out of most regulatory agencies after Brexit, like medicines and EURATOM, and I think Labour would seek to remain members. Probably also stuff like Erasmus. Again, that’s stuff you can scribble in.

    ”Close single market relationship”. What does this mean? Who knows. It might be some fudge around FOM like the Swiss option that Ian Dunt has written about where jobs get posted locally (but for anybody there, regardless of citizenship) before going out across the EEA. But Labour aren’t as wedded to migration as May was (no one is, even Johnson) and they aren’t going to take the piss like Davis and Johnson have. I expect they will negotiate in a more collegial style and probably get a few things to take home and dress the windows in exchange for basically signing up to the four freedoms of the single market.

    Does it beat Remaining? Of course not, but I really do not feel the devil-May-care (autocorrect but I’m not changing that) attitude of not being concerned about this. There’s every chance Leave wins again and I would prefer not to declare economic war on the EU, nor sign up to a deal that leaves gaping holes for the things Tories want versus what Labour wants.

    Comment


      Originally posted by Flynnie View Post

      Customs union for sure, that is something everybody knows and understands. They can scribble that in tomorrow. That would significantly turn down the heat on the backstop.

      Regulatory alignment for worker’s rights and the environment. Useful considering Johnson’s plans.

      this hasn’t been explicitly mentioned, but I’m pretty sure we’re out of most regulatory agencies after Brexit, like medicines and EURATOM, and I think Labour would seek to remain members. Probably also stuff like Erasmus. Again, that’s stuff you can scribble in.
      If I'm not mistaken, this is all stuff that comes after the Withdrawal Agreement/May's Deal.

      Sure, there's less bellyaching about the backstop with Labour because they want to be in the CU, but with the WA as it stands the backstop results in Britain defauling to being in the Customs Union if there's no end result with the Irish Border problem resolved.

      Being in the CU means that the backstop doesn't get implemented, but the backstop still needs to be in place before negotiations even start.

      Comment


        Originally posted by Nefertiti2 View Post
        If you say „ referendum „ what are the choices on the ballot going to be?
        No withdrawal agreement for exiting the EU has yet been agreed by Parliament.
        If by deadline x [that being the extension (if one is offered!)], this is still the case, should Britain:
        i) Leave anyway without a deal, or
        ii) Revoke article 50 notification and remain in the EU?


        And this time it should be legally binding.

        And yes, there is a very good chance this will be won by Leave again. And this time it would be explicitly No Deal.

        What that offers is a potential flip of the table on the No Dealers. Rather than rejecting things and sitting on their hands as the clock works in their favour, they actually have to say what they can live with as their time is running out.

        After that is played out, then Labour can head off to Brussels to see if they can negotiate a set of terms that is acceptable to them and then get the Tory leavers to grudgingly back it. Or effectivly block Brexit.

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          So you’re prepared to risk no deal?

          O think that’s insane.

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            And I think that's really where we stand - Labour are absolutely committed to - and by far the best choice for - avoiding No Deal. They are clearly not committed to avoiding Brexit. If my main goal was to prevent a No Deal Brexit, I would accept Labour's position in a flash. But it's not. I am wedded to the idea of remaining in the EU. Labour's position is pretty flimsy and underwhelming if your goal is to prevent Brexit rather than No Deal.

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              But you are prepared to take the risk of no Deal -51/49 in the last opinion poll-rather than exclude No Deal and have Remain on the ballot.

              Theres on other way to say this.

              you‘re fucking mad.

              Comment


                Originally posted by Nefertiti2 View Post
                So you’re prepared to risk no deal?

                O think that’s insane.
                Bluntly, I don't see a choice any more, and there hasn't been for months, if not years. Because let's think through what actually happens if any second referendum, in whatever form, is put forward without No Deal as one of the two options. Let's say, for point of argument, the choice is Corbyn's putative deal (which, as Prime Minister of the country he doesn't advocate instead going for a ludicrous "On this huge constitutional issue that will define how the country operates for the next several decades, I dunno, you tell me!" position) or revoke. No Deal Leavers would say effectively none of the above. How? They boycott. Knowing that half the country isn't bothering, the other half's motivation to vote drastically diminishes. The chances of the winning position getting >17.4 million votes that it would require to have legitimacy? F*ck all.
                Last edited by Janik; 17-09-2019, 23:31.

                Comment


                  Originally posted by Nefertiti2 View Post
                  But you are prepared to take the risk of no Deal -51/49 in the last opinion poll-rather than exclude No Deal and have Remain on the ballot.
                  Yeah, Labour needed to be publicly pushing for a second referendum that could take No Deal off the table months and months ago, basically soon after May's WA failed to get through twice. Back then it wasn't the case that Leavers = No Dealers. The intervening time has allowed that gap to close to the point where they are now indistinguishable. But, well, they weren't listening to those voices calling for that back then, were they?

                  Comment


                    And, to be clear, my suggestion for a question does have a safety net built in; May's Withdrawal Agreement. It is still a document on the table, it can be brought back, voted through and becomes the law, committing Britain to a transition period, backstops and the like. To reverse her phrase, May's Bad Deal is better than No Deal (for all it's flaws, does anyone really doubt that??). If my suggested referendum question was run following an extension to mid-March, and was won by No Deal then the opponents of that would have to bite the bullet and accept that May's work was the least worst scenario they can hope for. Remember, about the only thing we know commands a majority of the current House of Commons is no to No Deal.

                    They wouldn't even need to topple the clown from his car to do this. In fact it would be better to vote it through with him still in charge. He could be the Prime Minister who oversaw Britain's leaving of the EU with a deal he didn't want that tied him to conditions he professed to hate.

                    Comment


                      I dunno.

                      Just #RevokeArticle50 in the Commons and see what happens. Still 2.5 years until another GE is really necessary. More Leavers will have expired by then.

                      The Tories can back NDB in 2022, LDs et al their Remain position and Labour can just make something else up nearer the time.
                      Last edited by George C.; 18-09-2019, 00:52.

                      Comment


                        As always, the right thing to do is not what Gonzo recommends.

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                          Like you have anything useful to say, Donnie.

                          Even Sw*nson's a useful idiot in comparison.

                          Comment


                            I love you too.

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by San Bernardhinault View Post
                              And I think that's really where we stand - Labour are absolutely committed to - and by far the best choice for - avoiding No Deal. They are clearly not committed to avoiding Brexit. If my main goal was to prevent a No Deal Brexit, I would accept Labour's position in a flash. But it's not. I am wedded to the idea of remaining in the EU. Labour's position is pretty flimsy and underwhelming if your goal is to prevent Brexit rather than No Deal.
                              Is this the bit where I point out that the Lib Dems position as of under Cable (and Swinson has been very equivocating about), is that a second referendum does include No Deal as an option.

                              The party of Remain has a worse position than the alleged Leave of Labour. Up is down, black is white.

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by Janik View Post
                                It's still a bunch of equivocating arse. What is he going to campaign for if such a referendum ever happened? Remain, or the deal to leave he has just re-negotiated? Presumably the later, i.e. taking Britain out of the EU, because otherwise he would be doing a Grieve and voting against his own proposal. Which is never a good look. And whatever side he backs in such a referendum, the intent if something else wins is for him to stay on as Prime Minister to implement the policy he has specifically campaigned against and that has effectively been imposed on him. Tail wagging the dog. We saw with Cameron just how absurd and impossible that is. It's as pie-in-the-sky unworkable as, well, all the previous Labour policies that were also trying to be all things to all men have been. At some point they will get the splinters out, but it's going to take years.
                                Corbyn won't be campaigning for either. Smart move https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-in-referendum

                                Comment


                                  Originally posted by Janik View Post

                                  So, johnr, how do you square your response to ale with the Guardian story in Nef's tweet? Are Labour pro-Remain and proposing negotiating a deal they won't believe in and don't want to win, in which case how will anyone pro-Leave ever believe they were negotiating it in good faith? Or are the actually pro-Leave, albeit on what they would consider substantially better terms? Which is still pro-Leave however you try and twist it.

                                  See above.

                                  Comment


                                    Originally posted by johnr View Post

                                    Corbyn won't be campaigning for either. Smart move https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-in-referendum
                                    This is some definition of the word 'smart' that I was not previously aware. I never knew it meant ridiculous, unworkable and ineffectual. He would be taking no position on a deal that he had just negotiated. Hello Mr. Grieve! Your ideas are intriguing to us and we wish to subscribe to your newsletter.
                                    Why would anyone pro-Leave believe he had negotiated in good faith in that scenario if he can't even back the deal himself? And he would be effectively a Prime Minister saying "dunno" about a massive constitutional issue. The person meant to be running the country effectively abdicating from the role and becoming the least influential person in the nation. Not a leader but the ultimate follower. The optics of that are blatantly godawful and clearly unsustainable.

                                    Its a unicorn of a position. It looks pretty enough until one engages ones brain about what it actually represents.

                                    Comment


                                      'Why would anyone pro-Leave believe he had negotiated in good faith in that scenario if he can't even back the deal himself?'

                                      Genuinely, I know a few that will. Was talking to two last night.

                                      Do you think we should have another referendum?

                                      If so, what should be on the ballot?


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                                        See above for my question and implied timeline i.e. before attempting to renegotiate so not putting oneself into this ridiculous situation.

                                        Comment


                                          Got it.

                                          However, I think your analysis is wrong. No dealers are not the same as Leavers, except as seen in the frantic media narrative. In addition to the two people I was talking to last night - who wouldn't vote No Deal, being Lexiters - I know personally of at least five relatives who would vote No Deal, but would also vote for a deal to leave. They just want out, and anything that says 'out' is fine by them. Fwiw, four out of the five are Tory voters.

                                          Comment


                                            Has anyone stopped to ask if the EU are prepared to a) allow the UK govt to negotiate a trade deal before passing the withdrawal agreement which so far they have completely refused to do b) that they are prepared to offer the UK an extension for the several years required to do this? c) that the EU is remotely interested in the idea of the UK being aligned with the Single market.

                                            This is nonsensical bullshit, and anyone who doesn't immediately see that this is nonsensical bullshit doesn't have the sense that they were born with. Labour are a fucking embarrassing disgrace.

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                                              Yes. Because clearly the EU are sick of dealing with the Tories and have been talking to Labour in a professional and constructive manner.

                                              So why does that make Labour "an embarassing fucking disgrace". They've not been involved in the negotiations!

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                                                I guess Berba means that

                                                a) it's likely that the EU wouldn't offer a Labour Govt any better terms overall than they offered May or Johnson, and

                                                b) Labour either realise this and are being dishonest, or don't and thus don't understand how the EU works

                                                Comment


                                                  Yes, but as he has been told repeatedly, Labours red lines are not the Tory red lines. Plus the Labour approach is going to be a hell of a lot more collaborative and amenable to the EU. (Although in reality will end up with "exactly like being in the EU except not having any of the benefits like the rebate, say in the regulations etc etc")

                                                  Comment


                                                    Exactly. It's nonsensical to compare anyone else to the Tories arrogant, deluded approach.

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