The Brexit Thread

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

Hope against hope, if there's one thing that comes out of this shitbath, it's the end of idea of the all powerful Crown manifesting itself in the Executive pissing over the rest of the Parliament that once passed for a Brit Constitution. Not optimistic but.

It won't last, once someone gets a workable majority they'll go back to pissing on Parliament again, and will get away with it. That might take a while though, as I can't see how either main party will pull off a sizeable majority in the next election, even though the media will be going all out on the 'strong and stable' and 'Britain is sick of coalition politics' lines.

[Jimski]

Not disagreeing with the point from Nef's link, but it's a bit weird to use raw number of signatures instead of percentage of consitituents in that table: Na h-Eileanan an Iar really has no place on that list, and some constituencies with very low rates of signature like Boston and Skegness or Bradford East don't show up because they have a bigger population.

You can re-order it on percentage of electorate at https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/

[Flynnie]

Uh-oh. There goes the rather unpleasant theory that it's Leavers that will be dying off in the next few years.

Not really, if you read the study it’s basically 90 year olds that are pro EU and their 75 year old counterparts are vehemently anti EU. So we will still see a net decline in Leavers as Dr Death knocks on the door.

[Nocturnal Submission]

Just how far in the future are you thinking that a second referendum might be???

[Flynnie]

Just how far in the future are you thinking that a second referendum might be???

Curtice had 2021 before Remain would have a majority due to demographic shifts and that wouldn't even include EU citizens who have naturalised as a result of Brexit.

[Nocturnal Submission]

Current polling, as assessed by Curtice, has Remain with a decent lead at present: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47693645

[Ginger Yellow]

FT reporting that JRM is on the verge of backing the deal. Which would be pretty hilarious after all his mouth.

[ad hoc]

FT reporting that JRM is on the verge of backing the deal. Which would be pretty hilarious after all his mouth.

Yeah I read somewhere last night that he told an erg meeting that if the DUP backed it he would.

[ursus arctos]

What is most surprising about that is the margin is still quite small, notwithstanding the fact that about two-thirds of Leave voters expect Britain to get a "bad deal".

On Rees-Mogg, the FT report intimates that he will back it independent of what the DUP do, having concluded that the only alternative is "No Brexit".

[Ginger Yellow]

Yeah I read somewhere last night that he told an erg meeting that if the DUP backed it he would.

The logic of the comments cited in the FT piece is independent of the DUP vote, but of course JRM and logic don't exactly go together.

[ad hoc]

This will add a new level of complexity to the Irish border https://www.reuters.com/article/us-e...-idUSKCN1R71FS

[ursus arctos]

This could be its own thread, but is there an OTF consensus as to why the BBC's coverage has become as right-leaning as it has?

It is obvious to me that the rabid opposition to the EU of several national newspapers is primarily attributable to the views of their owners, which are in turn primarily driven by their personal economic interests, especially with regard to taxation. It may be that the Murdoch press are more of a hybrid similar to Fox News in the US, where the owner's original right-wing views have been made more virulent as he has discovered that "throwing red meat to the base" is an extremely lucrative strategy.

I originally thought the BBC veered right out of not unjustified fear that failing to do so would result in redtop rage and a reactive reduction in funding and independence from the Tories, but now wonder if it also reflects in part the demographics of the BBC audience, which I would think is older than the population as a whole. In that context, I note that the World Service (or at least the bits I listen to) seems to be rather more balanced than its parent, perhaps reflecting its more international (and internationalist) audience.

[diggedy derek]

Go for its own thread.

[ad hoc]

Over recent years they have installed a number of right wingers of various degrees at pretty much all the management positions in the News department. Nef and Lucy Waterman know a lot more than i do (though they probably don;t entirely agree with each other)

[ursus arctos]

I will start a separate thread.

[ursus arctos]

The Bruges Group seems nice (click through to read the whole thread)

https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1110521942350721024

https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1110526375293865984

[Diable Rouge]

The Bruges Group seems nice (click through to read the whole thread)

https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1110521942350721024

https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1110526375293865984

The last Blueshirts were withdrawn from battle, after being shot at by their own allies.

[Satchmo Distel]

There's a view that the indicative votes with scare the ERG to get in line behind the WA, although it will look awkward if the WA passes by a smaller majority than the winning IV did. The WA will look illegitimate because it has been steamrollered through by coercion and negative voting (to avoid the more popular alternative).

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

The blueshirts thing is pure Roderick Spode.

[loose cannon]

It's hilarious that after two years of stasis and prevarication, Brexit is being reduced to a multiple choice for Parliament

[Janik]

I just saw the twitter timeline of the Woman who started the revoke petition. She is calling people who support it "hobbitses". And she really doesn't appear to intend that to be demeaning...

Oh Christ.

Anyway, carry on.

[Lang Spoon]

least it wasn't a fuckin Rowling reference.

[Flynnie]

What is most surprising about that is the margin is still quite small, notwithstanding the fact that about two-thirds of Leave voters expect Britain to get a "bad deal".

On Rees-Mogg, the FT report intimates that he will back it independent of what the DUP do, having concluded that the only alternative is "No Brexit".

Leave is a religious shibboleth at this point.

That said, I think minds are wavering. My wife’s family are staunchly working class South Londoners, but they all voted Remain because they’re first generation Irish Londoners and so things like peace in the North really matter to them, plus they remember when the anti-migrant uproar was focused on their parents. But my mother and uncle in law are reporting that their white British friends down the pub who voted Leave are all having second thoughts. It’s all the things they didn’t think of - their business needing a part that can only be sourced in Slovakia, a trusted colleague moving back to France, their German spouse fretting over being able to bring over their elderly mum, the plummeting pound badly denting their chances of retiring to somewhere sunny (and the realisation that that destination may not want retiring Brits of modest means).

They arent sure whether their friends will vote Remain in a second referendum, not many want to admit in public they screwed up, but they could sure see them staying home on election day at the very least.

[Diable Rouge]

Corbyn still clinging to unicorns - a CU with input into trade deals, and alignment with the Single Market:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...cock-live-news

[Satchmo Distel]

Is there a schedule for tomorrow's Commons business, including the Indicative Votes, yet? When does May speak? Speculation is that she has to give a date that she'll step down if she wants to get the WA through.