The Brexit Thread

[johnr]

I'd hope "business" might show up this time.

I think 'business' would be seen by some on the Leaver side as 'the establishment'.

[Lucy Waterman]

Clearly the best outcome is that brexit gets cancelled (not postponed). Brexit is both economic suicide and poisonous racist dogshit. However, the only way I can see it being cancelled now is if the government (perhaps in some kind of cross party grand coalition style alliance) revokes it. A second referendum sounds like a really bad idea, to be honest.

Yes, this. The political establishment (Labour and Tory) need to stop dicking around for the same short-term, popularity-courting reasons that got us into this shit in the first place - and do what the vast majority of them think is the right thing.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I think 'business' would be seen by some on the Leaver side as 'the establishment'.

It would, but locally focussed stuff could work. Where the firms had OK reputations to start with.

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

A little bit of control taken back by Parliament - government defeated 303 to 296 on the Yvette Cooper amendment to the Finance Bill, that any further budgetary impacts of No Deal are to be voted by Parliament.

Said to be the first government defeat on a vote at this stage of a Finance Bill since 1978. The DUP supported the government but 20 Tories revelled (and conversely 3 Labour MPs).

[Nefertiti2]

https://twitter.com/How_Upsetting/status/1082758088875225089

[Diable Rouge]

At last, an article of BBC product that both illuminates, and is intellectually rigorous:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0001xs9

[Ginger Yellow]

A little bit of control taken back by Parliament - government defeated 303 to 296 on the Yvette Cooper amendment to the Finance Bill, that any further budgetary impacts of No Deal are to be voted by Parliament.

Said to be the first government defeat on a vote at this stage of a Finance Bill since 1978. The DUP supported the government but 20 Tories revelled (and conversely 3 Labour MPs).

On the other hand, by making no deal even less palatable, this vote makes Remain less likely and May's deal more likely.

[Ginger Yellow]

FT reckons IAG's EU27 ownership wheeze isn't going to fly

[Tubby Isaacs]

Can't they just repeal this vote in the event of No Deal? I don't get it at all.

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

Can't they just repeal this vote in the event of No Deal? I don't get it at all.

As far as I can tell its impact in practice is that the government can't amend taxes to cover the cost of No Deal, it could still use Treasury Reserves or direct departments to use existing funding. But it's obviously a clear marker for future votes and unusual in itself that there was that scale of rebellion on a Finance Bill issue.

[Diable Rouge]

Also, Bercow has selected a Grieve amendment for debate, which would force May to outline her plans by Friday week, assuming she is defeated on Tuesday.

[Ginger Yellow]

Seriously? That's pretty pathetic. There's no good reason she shouldn't do it immediately. After all she already delayed the vote.

[Tubby Isaacs]

As far as I can tell its impact in practice is that the government can't amend taxes to cover the cost of No Deal, it could still use Treasury Reserves or direct departments to use existing funding. But it's obviously a clear marker for future votes and unusual in itself that there was that scale of rebellion on a Finance Bill issue.

You can do an extra finance bill, surely? I think we had an extra "emergency budget" in 2010. Osborne was talking about a post Brexit "punishment budget" too.

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

You can do an extra finance bill, surely? I think we had an extra "emergency budget" in 2010. Osborne was talking about a post Brexit "punishment budget" too.

They can do it at any time, but it would still need to be voted on. They can use Reserves without a specific vote so that would be the quickest way of funding No Deal preparations.

The issue of the Grieve amendment mentioned above is about to cause a big row, starting around 1pm.

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

Seriously? That's pretty pathetic. There's no good reason she shouldn't do it immediately. After all she already delayed the vote.

She currently has about five weeks of can-kicking time, so compressing it to three days is progress in itself.

[Tubby Isaacs]

They can do it at any time, but it would still need to be voted on. They can use Reserves without a specific vote so that would be the quickest way of funding No Deal preparations.

The issue of the Grieve amendment mentioned above is about to cause a big row, starting around 1pm.

I don't see why she'd lose a vote, that's the thing. It would be like passing a finance bill, wouldn't it?

[Ginger Yellow]

UK commitments to NI on backstop.

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

I don't see why she'd lose a vote, that's the thing. It would be like passing a finance bill, wouldn't it?

I don't think I'm saying anything different - it's a bit of symbolism and in practice it would get blown away in the chaos of No Deal becoming a reality, but it's still something that would have to be specifically overturned in Parliament and not just a given. When I referred to 'future votes' I meant the upcoming ones on Brexit generally, not specifically on if that issue came back.

[Nefertiti2]

https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1082987502472957952

[Tubby Isaacs]

I don't think I'm saying anything different - it's a bit of symbolism and in practice it would get blown away in the chaos of No Deal becoming a reality, but it's still something that would have to be specifically overturned in Parliament and not just a given. When I referred to 'future votes' I meant the upcoming ones on Brexit generally, not specifically on if that issue came back.

Ah right, thanks. What's confusing me is the way it's been hyped as "voting against no deal" by some.

Some positive news - Gardiner has "clarified" his stuff the other day was a personal view. So hopefully the leader will drop talk of renegotiating too. We might be getting somewhere.

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

It'll get lost in the business motion row, but:

Tory MP apologises for Paddy Ashdown 'from the grave' remark Lib Dem MP Layla Moran says that when she paid tribute to former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown, the MP for North West Leicester "shouted 'from the grave'".

And back to the action - the business motion row is heating up. There may not be many kicks left in the can after all.

[hobbes]

Another loss. By 11 this time.

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

Tories circulating motion of no confidence in the Speaker, who was elected by Parliament in 2017.

[Nefertiti2]

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1083031865735430146

[Ginger Yellow]

I mean, if a majority of MPs want to do that they can, in principle, whether it's in the statute book or not. All this does is reinforce the EU 27's belief that the UK government is not to be trusted to stick to its deals, and hence the backstop is necessary. Very, very stupid, tactically.