I agree it's tricky. I'm not too bothered by upsetting or antagonising the sceptics or the "with covid"/"of covid" hairsplitters. The science is what it is and as we have repeatedly seen, Covid is no respecter of opinions regardless how sincerely they are held.
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Originally posted by matt j View PostI think if TAB's political analysis of Ireland is correct, then the problem with the IHME projections is probably the ratio they are applying..(and/or that their other data on Ireland just disagrees with TAB - and we'll have to wait for stories of 'missed' deaths in the country).
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Yeah, let's all rely on "common sense". No way that could fuck up.
https://twitter.com/Zubhaque/status/1391871926981775371?s=19
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Originally posted by Patrick Thistle View PostYeah, let's all rely on "common sense". No way that could fuck up
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Japan recorded its highest ever daily tally of new cases (7,766) and its equal highest daily death tally (121) on Sunday. A friend who lives out there says that there's not much testing going on so I don't know what the real case numbers are like. She also says that the country's constitution prevents the government from issuing edicts demanding that places close. The government can only request or advise, but most companies and individuals will comply with such a request. Seems quite civilised. The Olympics are due to start on July 23rd. The government really, really doesn't want to cancel them again.
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In the UK, deaths from Covid-19 are still going down, but new cases are creeping up. Currently we've had 12% more cases in the previous 7 days than in the 7 days before that. It's one month since the last change in restrictions on April 12th, e.g. outdoor dining and non-essential retail allowed and the opening of hairdressers and nail salons and the like. So, we may be seeing the effect of that. As it stands, restrictions are set to ease further next Monday 17th May. Changes include allowing hugging, and opening indoor hospitality, cinemas and play centres. I think our best hope to stop further increase in case numbers is if we have a run of really good weather and most people stay outside still.
Checks weather report: rain predicted in local area every day until 21st May (which is as far as the report goes). Oh dear.
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I see nothing to indicate a return to settled weather, if anything there could be further stormy and cold weather towards the last third of May...
The cases creep up might also be due to the Indian variant, the UK is the second most affected country after India.
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Testing, tracing and vaccination was 1.9% of UK GDP in 1Q21. For comparison, that's three times as much as agriculture.Last edited by Ginger Yellow; 12-05-2021, 10:05.
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Originally posted by Balderdasha View PostIn the UK, deaths from Covid-19 are still going down, but new cases are creeping up. Currently we've had 12% more cases in the previous 7 days than in the 7 days before that. It's one month since the last change in restrictions on April 12th, e.g. outdoor dining and non-essential retail allowed and the opening of hairdressers and nail salons and the like. So, we may be seeing the effect of that. As it stands, restrictions are set to ease further next Monday 17th May. Changes include allowing hugging, and opening indoor hospitality, cinemas and play centres. I think our best hope to stop further increase in case numbers is if we have a run of really good weather and most people stay outside still.
Checks weather report: rain predicted in local area every day until 21st May (which is as far as the report goes). Oh dear.
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Originally posted by Balderdasha View PostBahrain has had the second highest rate of new cases per million population worldwide over the last seven days. I find this more concerning as Bahrain has administered more doses of Covid-19 vaccine per 100 population than the UK (79.17 for Bahrain vs 77.19 for the UK as of May 7th 2021). Bahrain is moving to introduce a third vaccine boosting campaign: https://amp/s/gulfnews.com/amp/world...-19-1.79052338
I wonder if this means that the current low numbers in the UK are due more to lockdown measures than the vaccination roll-out.
Like most of the Arabian peninsula, they have outsourced most work to migrant labour from the Indian subcontinent who live in cramped conditions well out of view so I wouldn't be surprised if these jump in infections is to do with the so called Indian variant. Speaking to a lot of the migrants, it is very difficult for them to a vaccinated and the BeAware app (the local Covid app) is not the easiest to navigate.Last edited by Tactical Genius; 12-05-2021, 22:17.
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So do the new cases matter as much? Are the cases as serious if people are vaccinated (in countries where they have the access to be vaccinated if they choose to do so)? I am ware the implications will be different for countries where vaccination is more difficult or not accessible to many people.
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There are a number of variables that have a significant bearing on the answer to that.
One is the presence and prevalence of variants of concern
Another is the lethality of those variants (which varies and isn't completely understood yet)
And a third is the identity of the vaccines that have been used and their efficacy, particularly against variants
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Originally posted by Balderdasha View PostIn the UK, deaths from Covid-19 are still going down, but new cases are creeping up. Currently we've had 12% more cases in the previous 7 days than in the 7 days before that. It's one month since the last change in restrictions on April 12th, e.g. outdoor dining and non-essential retail allowed and the opening of hairdressers and nail salons and the like. So, we may be seeing the effect of that. As it stands, restrictions are set to ease further next Monday 17th May. Changes include allowing hugging, and opening indoor hospitality, cinemas and play centres. I think our best hope to stop further increase in case numbers is if we have a run of really good weather and most people stay outside still.
Checks weather report: rain predicted in local area every day until 21st May (which is as far as the report goes). Oh dear.
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They're sufficiently worried about the 'Indian variant' that they're accelerating the vaccination programme to all over-16s in Bolton. There seems to be a hotspot there and it's spreading much more rapidly than the original virus did.
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- Mar 2008
- 19102
- Revelling In The Hole
- England, Chelsea and Tooting and Mitcham. And Surrey CCC. And Wimbledon Dons Speedway (RIP)
- Nairn's Cheese Oatcake
I heard on the news last night that there had been a request to roll out vaccinations to all adult age groups in the area. Excellent news if that's been authorised.
The rate in Erewash near Derby is, or certainly was until recently, even higher than Bolton.
Still isolated hotspots though. I wouldn't expect the infection rate to drop significantly until the vaccination programme makes inroads into those in their 20s, which won't be for a while yet.
The weekly ONS study is still the most reliable guide to national infection rates and the trend remains downwards. Tomorrow's is worth looking out for.
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Hungary is the first, and so far only, country to have reached a death rate of more than 3 deaths attributed to Covid-19 per 1,000 population. This means more than one in every 333 people in Hungary have died from Covid-19. My children's school has more than 500 people in it. At that level, almost everyone is likely to know someone who's died from Covid-19, though there may be heavier concentrations in some areas than others.
If the world ever reached the same death rate, we'd see more than 23 million deaths due to Covid-19.
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