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    I agree it's tricky. I'm not too bothered by upsetting or antagonising the sceptics or the "with covid"/"of covid" hairsplitters. The science is what it is and as we have repeatedly seen, Covid is no respecter of opinions regardless how sincerely they are held.

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      Originally posted by matt j View Post
      I think if TAB's political analysis of Ireland is correct, then the problem with the IHME projections is probably the ratio they are applying..(and/or that their other data on Ireland just disagrees with TAB - and we'll have to wait for stories of 'missed' deaths in the country).
      Like I said, I could easily see delayed treatment make up the gap entirely by itself. So much treatment was delayed, for so long.

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        Yeah, let's all rely on "common sense". No way that could fuck up.

        https://twitter.com/Zubhaque/status/1391871926981775371?s=19

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          The Dutch have been systematically underreporting Covid deaths, this has been well known, even by the Dutch authorities themselves. They just make sure it doesn't get broadcasted to the people.

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            Originally posted by Patrick Thistle View Post
            Yeah, let's all rely on "common sense". No way that could fuck up
            My heart sank reading the front pages last night, one of the usual suspects outdid the Telegraph by saying we would win with "British Common Sense". It's like at work when a new policy is introduced and any gap or anomaly is covered by saying "well people are just going to have to use their common sense" when what they really mean is "f***, we never thought of that".

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              Is it the same sort of common sense that dictates that the best way to check your eyesight is to drive all the way up north? If so, we've got it in spades.

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                Originally posted by jwdd27 View Post
                "No dancing at weddings" is an oddly specific prohibition to come out of the latest easings.
                Actually, that was one of my thoughts for the "One Small Thing" thread.

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                  We've just reached 160 million confirmed cases of Covid-19 worldwide. The last 10 million cases took 13 days again. Though this week we've recorded slightly fewer cases than the previous week (5% less).

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                    Japan recorded its highest ever daily tally of new cases (7,766) and its equal highest daily death tally (121) on Sunday. A friend who lives out there says that there's not much testing going on so I don't know what the real case numbers are like. She also says that the country's constitution prevents the government from issuing edicts demanding that places close. The government can only request or advise, but most companies and individuals will comply with such a request. Seems quite civilised. The Olympics are due to start on July 23rd. The government really, really doesn't want to cancel them again.

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                      In the UK, deaths from Covid-19 are still going down, but new cases are creeping up. Currently we've had 12% more cases in the previous 7 days than in the 7 days before that. It's one month since the last change in restrictions on April 12th, e.g. outdoor dining and non-essential retail allowed and the opening of hairdressers and nail salons and the like. So, we may be seeing the effect of that. As it stands, restrictions are set to ease further next Monday 17th May. Changes include allowing hugging, and opening indoor hospitality, cinemas and play centres. I think our best hope to stop further increase in case numbers is if we have a run of really good weather and most people stay outside still.

                      Checks weather report: rain predicted in local area every day until 21st May (which is as far as the report goes). Oh dear.

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                        I see nothing to indicate a return to settled weather, if anything there could be further stormy and cold weather towards the last third of May...

                        The cases creep up might also be due to the Indian variant, the UK is the second most affected country after India.

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                          Nauru is the first country to have vaccinated it's entire population (n=12000). It has had zero cases but still has a Coronavirus task orce.

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                            Testing, tracing and vaccination was 1.9% of UK GDP in 1Q21. For comparison, that's three times as much as agriculture.
                            Last edited by Ginger Yellow; 12-05-2021, 10:05.

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                              Originally posted by Balderdasha View Post
                              In the UK, deaths from Covid-19 are still going down, but new cases are creeping up. Currently we've had 12% more cases in the previous 7 days than in the 7 days before that. It's one month since the last change in restrictions on April 12th, e.g. outdoor dining and non-essential retail allowed and the opening of hairdressers and nail salons and the like. So, we may be seeing the effect of that. As it stands, restrictions are set to ease further next Monday 17th May. Changes include allowing hugging, and opening indoor hospitality, cinemas and play centres. I think our best hope to stop further increase in case numbers is if we have a run of really good weather and most people stay outside still.

                              Checks weather report: rain predicted in local area every day until 21st May (which is as far as the report goes). Oh dear.
                              I think now that the numbers have fallen to a much lower level they'll probably get noisier. I wouldn't see this necessarily as a meaningful rise. But there will also be a level of infection which the disease maintains if a certain portion of the population does not vaccinate and if that keeps the total below herd immunity. Presumably schools and children will be a pool of infection - even if the infection rate is much lower than before - until they get vaccinated; and they will infect some unvaccinated adults or some adults where the vaccination is ineffective. But what won't happen is getting the exponential chain-reaction effect. If numbers tick up, that should be all that they do at this point.

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                                So there will be an Enquiry into the pandemic to examine what went wrong and why so many people died in the UK.

                                But not imminently, of course, because that would be [checks notes] ... upsetting for the NHS.

                                'K then.

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                                  SAGE meeting about rising Indian variant case tomorrow...

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                                    We've had confirmed Indian variant cases in Wales.

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                                      Originally posted by Balderdasha View Post
                                      Bahrain has had the second highest rate of new cases per million population worldwide over the last seven days. I find this more concerning as Bahrain has administered more doses of Covid-19 vaccine per 100 population than the UK (79.17 for Bahrain vs 77.19 for the UK as of May 7th 2021). Bahrain is moving to introduce a third vaccine boosting campaign: https://amp/s/gulfnews.com/amp/world...-19-1.79052338

                                      I wonder if this means that the current low numbers in the UK are due more to lockdown measures than the vaccination roll-out.
                                      Oh dear, that's not good.
                                      Like most of the Arabian peninsula, they have outsourced most work to migrant labour from the Indian subcontinent who live in cramped conditions well out of view so I wouldn't be surprised if these jump in infections is to do with the so called Indian variant. Speaking to a lot of the migrants, it is very difficult for them to a vaccinated and the BeAware app (the local Covid app) is not the easiest to navigate.
                                      Last edited by Tactical Genius; 12-05-2021, 22:17.

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                                        Bahrain relying a lot on Sinopharm vaccines, which are not very good.

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                                          So do the new cases matter as much? Are the cases as serious if people are vaccinated (in countries where they have the access to be vaccinated if they choose to do so)? I am ware the implications will be different for countries where vaccination is more difficult or not accessible to many people.

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                                            There are a number of variables that have a significant bearing on the answer to that.

                                            One is the presence and prevalence of variants of concern

                                            Another is the lethality of those variants (which varies and isn't completely understood yet)

                                            And a third is the identity of the vaccines that have been used and their efficacy, particularly against variants

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                                              Originally posted by Balderdasha View Post
                                              In the UK, deaths from Covid-19 are still going down, but new cases are creeping up. Currently we've had 12% more cases in the previous 7 days than in the 7 days before that. It's one month since the last change in restrictions on April 12th, e.g. outdoor dining and non-essential retail allowed and the opening of hairdressers and nail salons and the like. So, we may be seeing the effect of that. As it stands, restrictions are set to ease further next Monday 17th May. Changes include allowing hugging, and opening indoor hospitality, cinemas and play centres. I think our best hope to stop further increase in case numbers is if we have a run of really good weather and most people stay outside still.

                                              Checks weather report: rain predicted in local area every day until 21st May (which is as far as the report goes). Oh dear.
                                              Yeah, they rose again slightly yesterday too. That's three successive days of a week-on-week rise. Worth keeping an eye on. The rate per 100k in the UK is still over 20. At one point (in what seems the distant past), your area went on amber alert if it went above 25.

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                                                They're sufficiently worried about the 'Indian variant' that they're accelerating the vaccination programme to all over-16s in Bolton. There seems to be a hotspot there and it's spreading much more rapidly than the original virus did.

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                                                  I heard on the news last night that there had been a request to roll out vaccinations to all adult age groups in the area. Excellent news if that's been authorised.

                                                  The rate in Erewash near Derby is, or certainly was until recently, even higher than Bolton.

                                                  Still isolated hotspots though. I wouldn't expect the infection rate to drop significantly until the vaccination programme makes inroads into those in their 20s, which won't be for a while yet.

                                                  The weekly ONS study is still the most reliable guide to national infection rates and the trend remains downwards. Tomorrow's is worth looking out for.

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                                                    Hungary is the first, and so far only, country to have reached a death rate of more than 3 deaths attributed to Covid-19 per 1,000 population. This means more than one in every 333 people in Hungary have died from Covid-19. My children's school has more than 500 people in it. At that level, almost everyone is likely to know someone who's died from Covid-19, though there may be heavier concentrations in some areas than others.

                                                    If the world ever reached the same death rate, we'd see more than 23 million deaths due to Covid-19.

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