The Brexit Thread

[Nefertiti2]

Nup, Corbyn is warmed over social democracy slightly to the left of Merkel in a wider European context. If he was as transformative as fuckin Wilson let alone Clem I'd be happy, he's milquetoast dressed up as Full on Left. (And of course Attlee had an empire to bleed to pay for Socialism, outside the EU even the timidity of Corbyn's programme is undoable).

You are a very strange fellow.

[Nefertiti2]

I don't agree. Any labour leader in this position would face the same difficulties - namely that a governing party isn't going to call an election they're going to lose.

The Tories can't get rid of May, May doesn't think she'll be in a better position if she calls an election and the Tories plus DUP have a parliamentary majority.

The ERG lot aren't going to prefer Corbyn's brexit to No Deal so they, having exhausted their other options - having failed to remove May - are content to wind down the clock.

The Continuity Remain Tories are also unlikely to prefer Corbyn's brexit deal to May's. They presumably want an Article 50 extension or a second referendum, and neither of those are going to happen with a Corbyn majority - which would see them lose their seats to the bargain. So they're left running down the clock in the hope that the parliamentary arithmetic switches in favour of a second referendum.

The only faction I could see that might support a labour leader other than Corbyn is the DUP - but even so I think they're in a similar position to the ERG.

I think the Tories might split for Continuity Neo liberalist Labour.

[Nefertiti2]

"Speaking of which, how long after the VONC fails do we see the first “Corbyn shouldn’t have called it” article from someone who was telling him to call it three weeks ago?"

I'm guessing before the VONC

Been going on all day,

meanwhile for some members of the board this is significant,

https://twitter.com/flying_rodent/status/1085464544414257153

[Lucy Waterman]

There’s no cohesion to Corbyn’s opponents in the PLP, so such an entity doesn’t exist (except as a useful rallying point in the minds of Corbyn supporters).

[Lucy Waterman]

Basically, if there was someone capable of effectively splitting the Labour Party, Corbyn wouldn’t have won the leadership in the first place.

[Nefertiti2]

the parliamentary labour party tried to split twice-the first time immediately after the referendum (one reason IMO why the Tories were able to dominate the terms of reference)

[johnr]

There's a few of the EU folk saying that the red lines are the problem. It's May that's enforcing them, cos of her right wing. It's still Corbyn's fault for some here, baffles me tbh.

The PV - at least before a GE changes the numbers, not to mention the lack of clarity around the questions - has always been unicornology and cakeism.

[Lucy Waterman]

the parliamentary labour party tried to split twice-the first time immediately after the referendum

Yes. And didn’t manage it, either time.

[Bizarre Löw Triangle]

I think the Tories might split for Continuity Neo liberalist Labour.

I think any Labour Party pursuing this strategy would run into the same obstacles.

The only way I could see it happening would be if Labour were way ahead in the polls and lead by a Continuity Remain figure from the party's right - I could see a handful of remain-minded Tories in marginal seats crossing the floor to collapse the government. But I'm not convinced a figure from the party's right would be way ahead in the polls.

[johnr]

I'm sure that there's people on this thread asserting that there will be no more negotiations, and that the EU aren't going to move at all, in any way, whatsoever (I'll have to check back through the thread to be sure). Here's Barnier, who seems to hint at a disagreement with them.

[Moonlight Shadow]

The assertion is that EU won't budge if red lines remain unchanged, if red lines are shifted/erased, of course the EU is ready for more talks. They have said that months ago...both of those things.

[Kevin S]

Have to say this is some top-notch tweeting from whoever is doing the Education Select Committee twitter today:

https://twitter.com/CommonsEd/status/1085478294403891201

[ad hoc]

The assertion is that EU won't budge if red lines remain unchanged, if red lines are shifted/erased, of course the EU is ready for more talks. They have said that months ago...both of those things.

But the red lines are May's. But people here are saying there will be no more negotiation of any sort, for example, in response to a Labour proposal. But labour would have different "red lines"

[johnr]

Indeed. I think the general terminology has been that Corbyn - and by extension Starmer - has been a relentlessly fucking thick stupid delusional cunt, or something, for even considering that something could be done differently. They can be joined in that club by Barnier now, I guess.

[anton pulisov]

EU knows all too well that there is no single deal that will get through the Commons.

Brexit is done.

UK needs to move on.

[anton pulisov]

There's a few of the EU folk saying that the red lines are the problem. It's May that's enforcing them, cos of her right wing.

Yes, May's red lines are dumb. What are Corbyn's red lines? Or, more to the point, in what ways does Corbyn want to do the deal differently?

[johnr]

One of May's red lines is the CU. Labour's isn't.

[Moonlight Shadow]

Indeed. I think the general terminology has been that Corbyn - and by extension Starmer - has been a relentlessly fucking thick stupid delusional cunt, or something, for even considering that something could be done differently. They can be joined in that club by Barnier now, I guess.

Seeing as their red lines are only marginally different than May's, I'm not entirely sure how much scope there would have been for the EU to re-negotiate. A tweek on the WA to take into account a permanent custom union otherwise, with SM/FoM gone, the essence of the WA deal changed very little.

Just refer back to Barnier's chart with all the various outcomes...

[George C.]

I don't agree. Any labour leader in this position would face the same difficulties - namely that a governing party isn't going to call an election they're going to lose.

The Tories can't get rid of May, May doesn't think she'll be in a better position if she calls an election and the Tories plus DUP have a parliamentary majority.

The ERG lot aren't going to prefer Corbyn's brexit to No Deal so they, having exhausted their other options - having failed to remove May - are content to wind down the clock.

The Continuity Remain Tories are also unlikely to prefer Corbyn's brexit deal to May's. They presumably want an Article 50 extension or a second referendum, and neither of those are going to happen with a Corbyn majority - which would see them lose their seats to the bargain. So they're left running down the clock in the hope that the parliamentary arithmetic switches in favour of a second referendum.

The only faction I could see that might support a labour leader other than Corbyn is the DUP - but even so I think they're in a similar position to the ERG.

I can see all of this happening. Sadly.

Though no real provision for a No Deal Brexit mentioned.

[Diable Rouge]

One of May's red lines is the CU. Labour's isn't.

Yes, but if the SM remains a red line for Corbyn, then trade barriers with both Ireland and the rest of the EU mean a return to borders.

[Satchmo Distel]

Article 50 extension must be a strong probability because it's that or No Deal on March 29th.

[Satchmo Distel]

Yes, but if the SM remains a red line for Corbyn, then trade barriers with both Ireland and the rest of the EU mean a return to borders.

It's not clear if the party conference backs Corbyn on that red line:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8570961.html

Corbyn could abandon it if he wanted to, I would infer.

[Patrick Thistle]

If the UK extends Article 50, does there have to be a specified exit date? Or can it be extended indefinitely?

[Snake Plissken]

Doubtful. The EU have to agree and there are elections in May.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Only 71MPs sign a letter for a second referendum the day after the May disaster. I think that one's likely dead.