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    Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
    All of the leaks so far today is that he is NOT going to declare an emergency
    OK, that's my bad for relying on Twitter

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      It is of course possible that he will, but there is a pretty strong legal consensus that he would get slapped down by the first District Court anyone filed in (drafts have been prepared) in much the same way as he was on Travel Ban 1.0. Iím not at all sure that they want their basis for any decision to be subject to judicial review. Thereís also a lot of chatter that GOP Senators have told him that it would be bad politics.

      it is hard for me to see it being anything other than a shitshow

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        He was definitely floating some trial balloons, sending out Lewandowski and Sanders with talking points to defend property grabs and other overreaches (Lewandowski compared it on MSNBC to building freeways).

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          Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
          It is of course possible that he will, but there is a pretty strong legal consensus that he would get slapped down by the first District Court anyone filed in (drafts have been prepared) in much the same way as he was on Travel Ban 1.0. Iím not at all sure that they want their basis for any decision to be subject to judicial review. Thereís also a lot of chatter that GOP Senators have told him that it would be bad politics.

          it is hard for me to see it being anything other than a shitshow
          I'd guessed that he'd declare "National Emergency", allow the Senate to vote for a nice long continuing resolution, then get slapped down in the courts. That would mean they'd get out of the shutdown bind, and be able to blame it on the courts rather themselves.

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            They donít need an emergency for Eminent Domain, but it would be hilarious for them to try that on a bunch of Texas ranchers.

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              They need an emergency to artificially create the fake impression of "funding for the wall" for a long enough gap for a budget to get passed.

              At that point the funding can disappear again, but Trump hasn't "caved" to the Democrats.

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                They controlled all three branches for two years. The only thing that has happened is that they have lost control of the House.

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                  Trump could be damaged by having hyped up a state of emergency only to have been forced to back down from it. Makes him look weak with Fox and chums, ultimately.

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                    Paul Manafort was a naughty boy not just before the Trump campaign but during the Trump campaign, and in contact with Russian spies, and in relation to Trump Campaign material.

                    We know this because Paul Manafort's lawyers seem to be utterly incompetent and unable to properly redact content in a court filing.

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                      Not Nate Silver's biggest fan. But this one is good.

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                        This made me laugh (in a nervous sort of way)

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                          Tweet from the BBC's Head of Politics successor to Robbie Gibb once a Federation of Conservative Students activist in their Hang Madela era who now head of Media for Theresa May

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                            Rosenstein is going to leave DOJ after Barr is confirmed as the new AG.

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                              Let's hope Mueller moves things along before confirmation hearings happen.

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                                He certainly is working very hard on that.

                                The Manafort/Kilimnik story is a genuinely big deal.

                                ďThe most innocent possible explanation here is that Trump hired an international criminal who was trying to give campaign information to a Russian oligarch in exchange for debt relief, and using a Russian intelligence asset as his go between,Ē says former Department of Justice spokesman Matthew Miller. ďBut itís hard to see what good polling data would be to a Russian oligarch, so it raises the question of whether Manafortís actual goal was to get the information to the Russian government itself.Ē Whether this was all about Manafort and his finances or whether this was part of a larger quid quo pro between Trump and the Russians isnít yet clear.

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                                  Yeah - that definitely looked like a proper "big deal" thing. That is evidence of the Trump campaign appearing to be working directly with the Russian government.

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                                      They keep managing to find new ways to be evil.

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                                        It appears that Washington is coming around to the bullshit gamesmanship that I was proposing upthread.

                                        Trump declares national emergency. Trump hasn't caved to libtards. Democrats haven't caved to bullshit hostage taking by the President. Everyone has "won". At which point congress can pass funding bills without wall money and the government gets back to work. The "emergency" promptly gets shut down by the courts.

                                        The fact that it's incredibly illegal helps almost everyone:

                                        Democrats are OK with this, because they know it's going to get shut down in the courts and there won't be a wall
                                        A lot of Republicans are actually quite happy with this, because once its shown to be illegal it creates a legal benchmark limiting executive overreach which they generally dislike when it's not done by Trump
                                        Even Trump's probably not unhappy, given that the wall is only really a mnemonic and he didn't much care about it anyway, and it being held up in courts until he's out of office/in his next term means that his base is appeased and not nagging him for action.

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                                          Not so fast

                                          What we're not looking to do right now is national emergency," he said Friday afternoon, surrounded by law enforcement officials at a White House roundtable. ďIím not going to do it so fast.Ē

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                                            I just find it so hard not to react to the stupidity of the phrase "Do a national emergency"

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                                              I wonder if he's backed down from SB's strategy because there's a risk the SCOTUS would actually allow him to proceed with the emergency measures, which would give huge powers to a future Dem President?

                                              He doesn't have much power in this game unless voters blame Democrats for the shutdown, which appears not to be happening. Eventually some GOP senators in areas affected by the shutdown (although it mainly affects Dem areas, naturally) ought to be getting twitchy.
                                              Last edited by Satchmo Distel; 12-01-2019, 00:45.

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                                                You'd think that the one thing that you'd want a leader to "do fast" is declaring an emergency.

                                                "The building is on fire, yes, and I think as time goes on I might say that this is an emergency, but for now let's just sit here and wait to see if there are any benefits to being trapped in a burning building"

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                                                    He is delusional about believing the public will blame the Dems for the shutdown but who's gonna tell him when he only has bootlickers around him?

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