Trump's Card

[Tubby Isaacs]

Thanks very much indeed. No further questions, Your Honour.

[Satchmo Distel]

Florida seems equally bleak given that Trump could win it despite his policies being likely to fuck the labour supply and environment. The one silver lining is the Puerto Rican influx into the crucial I4 corridor, which was already happening but will now accelerate. Whether that overcomes gerrymandering and voter suppression is anyone's guess; I think Florida is already excluding more people from the franchise due to past felonies than just about any other state.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Do lots of people still retire to Florida, or am I thinking too much of Seinfeld there? That's a useful demographic boon to Republicans there.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Crikey, I didn't realize how close Rick Scott came to losing, even in 2014.

Looking at wiki, I found this

Political scientist Gary C. Jacobson argues that the voters treated the election as a referendum on the economy and especially on Obama’s presidency. The result was the most partisan, nationalized, and president-centered midterm election in at least 60 years

They centred the campaign on the President? Why would that be, eh?

[WOM]

Do lots of people still retire to Florida, or am I thinking too much of Seinfeld there? That's a useful demographic boon to Republicans there.

Um, yes. They really do. And it's easy to say "well, fuck retiring to Florida like my grandparents did". And then you realize that it's going to be -30 for the next 3 or 4 months from Minnesota to rural Quebec, and suddenly golfing and walking on the beach doesn't really sound so bad after all.

And yes, it's a deeply Republican (old, white, affluent-ish) state in tone and manner. Guns, trucks, flags, fear of foreigners, etc.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Can't they get people to retire to poorer parts of the country? Wales does fairly well from people selling up in the South East and buying nice places to retire to. It's useful income, and not overwhelming in most areas.

What's the golf like in Kentucky?

[WOM]

Can't they get people to retire to poorer parts of the country?

Poorer people do, like Alabama and some of the more westerly Gulf states. But really, why?

[Flynnie]

Florida has no state income tax and no state inheritance tax, which are two mighty big carrots to dangle in front of people.

It ain't a rich state even with the retirees. Neither is Arizona (which also attracts a lot of retirees - hence why Florida and Arizona fight each other for Spring Training venues). You gotta have a lot of services to deal with the old folks that you might not have otherwise, and it's not an appealing place to live if you aren't one foot in the ground. Crappy schools, the summers are brutally hot and sticky (or just hot in Arizona), most work is low paid. I think Arizona has a little bit of tech, and Florida has two sizable college towns in Gainsville and Tallahassee, but most of it sucks.

[ursus arctos]

It's quite difficult to change long-established retirement migration patterns, as the population is by definition conservative and risk-adverse. North Carolina has done well out of attracting better off retirees from the Northeast to the area around Asheville, but that can be quite expensive, as can retiring to the South Carolina or Georgia coast. In addition, most retirees won't have friends or family already in the area, whereas they will in Florida (or Arizona if one is focused on the Midwest).

The traditional centres also have a broader range of accommodation, including affordable housing, frequent cheap flights "home" and larger communities for those with specific needs, be they medical or otherwise (there aren't any retirement communities in North Carolina with Kosher kitchens).

[caja-dglh]

Sounds like a very considered opinion there, UA. So North Carolina is the way to prise you away from NYC?!?

I am not sure Tubby quite gets Florida. You can live there as cheap as you like. I have family that has retired there and basically live in a trailer park. I have no idea why anyone would want to do that, but they are happy. You can live in Florida for as little expense as you want, much like any state. The surprising part is exactly what living standards people are comfortable with to achieve their end goal.

[ursus arctos]

I'd rather die, but a few of my partners have built "dream houses" in Western North Carolina.

To be to fair Tubbs, I'm not sure that anyone "gets" Florida. It's a profoundly strange place.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

what about this, it's a really rich third world society. does that cover it?

[San Bernardhinault]

I'd rather die, but a few of my partners have built "dream houses" in Western North Carolina.

And how is Mr Vanderbilt doing?

[Tubby Isaacs]

I've got Florida now. It's Bournemouth with better weather, right?

Another thing I don't get is that people don't seem to bother with State GDP growth, or connect it with national politics. I had the impression that they did years ago, when I recall Bill Clinton supporters saying he'd do for America what he'd done for Arkansas. I now know that they don't.

Still, I like them.

https://muninetguide.com/2016-state-gdp-growth/

[San Bernardhinault]

Florida isn't really one place. I mean, that's true for any US state bigger than Rhode Island, but it's very true in Florida. Miami is Miami. The coast north of Miami is full of old Jewish retirees and Donald Trump. The panhandle is basically Alabama but less reasonable. Tampa is a few million people living around strip clubs in strip malls. Everywhere inland from the coast is huge amounts of very cheap, very flat land with no infrastructure, perfect for poor retirees. Orlando is mostly a ton of amusement parks and the low-wage staff who service them. Jacksonville seems to be an industrial port town. It's all a bit weird, but it's not coherent (in either sense).

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Junior soprano is always going down to Boca. Where is that? I bet it's amazing.

[caja-dglh]

I would put it a bit more like moving to the Costa del Sol. It is a true aspiration for many people but can be performed on a wide variety of budgets. And when you get there it is just warm with no real redeeming character of its own.

UA is right - it truly doesn't make sense as a place.

[caja-dglh]

Junior soprano is always going down to Boca. Where is that? I bet it's amazing.

A bit north of Fort Lauderdale (home of cruise liners). The South East part is where the money is. Go further up and you get to Daytona Beach which is Nascar and all that comes with it. Nice beaches though.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Is this Jones Act stuff as shameful as it looks?

[Tubby Isaacs]

[ursus arctos]

The Jones Act is inherently shameful and has always been so.

People are only now beginning to notice.

[San Bernardhinault]

The Jones Act is the kind of thing Trump would try to bring in if he could, but wouldn't be allowed to by Congress.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The Jones Act is inherently shameful and has always been so.

People are only now beginning to notice.

Is it right that he waived it immediately with Texas and Florida, but not Puerto Rico?

[ursus arctos]

Yes.

The Administration's original argument with regard to Puerto Rico is that the bottleneck was port infrastructure, rather than a shortage of American-flagged merchant shipping.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Ouch.

But no-one cares because they're Hispanics, right?