Covid-19 pandemic

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

Mrs Thistle showed me a map of Tier 4 areas and "South East England" covered a lot more counties than I would have thought.

One of my sisters lives in Hampshire, and is less than a mile from the local authority boundary which now acts as a Tier 4 vs Tier 2 boundary (she is Tier 2).

[My Name Is Ian]

My ex-wife, an idiot, went to London on a booty call last night and now can't get back without breaking the law. I'd be minded not to let back into the house when she gets back. I've warned her before that "I need to get laid" isn't an acceptable reason to break lockdown rules and been ignored.

I'm not even certain what to do now, because I can't have her infecting me or the kids.

[Sporting]

My ex-wife, an idiot, went to London on a booty call last night and now can't get back without breaking the law. I'd be minded not to let back into the house when she gets back. I've warned her before that "I need to get laid" isn't an acceptable reason to break lockdown rules and been ignored.

I'm not even certain what to do now, because I can't have her infecting me or the kids.

Your ex wife lives with you or have I misunderstood?

[My Name Is Ian]

Yes we still live together and co-parent.

[Jimski]

Meanwhile In Labour (la-la) Land:

https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1340597091085774849

Listening to the unions and workers, as ever...

[ad hoc]

Mind you, opening on January 18th seems ludicrous to me too. Schools should probably be shut for the rest of the academic year

[Ginger Yellow]

Surely many of these people who left London are actually breaking the law?

As I understand it (subject to caveats about devolved administrations), the travel "rules" for the tier levels (up to 3 anyway, it may have changed for 4) are "just" guidance and not legally enforceable. It does seem likely they'll be breaking one or more of the legally binding restrictions once they get where they're going though.

[diggedy derek]

Ian, damn that must be a difficult situation.

[Jimski]

As I understand it (subject to caveats about devolved administrations), the travel "rules" for the tier levels (up to 3 anyway, it may have changed for 4) are "just" guidance and not legally enforceable. It does seem likely they'll be breaking one or more of the legally binding restrictions once they get where they're going though.

That's what I meant - I'm curious about where they can legally spend the night. (Unless they all have second homes, that is.)

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

As I understand it (subject to caveats about devolved administrations), the travel "rules" for the tier levels (up to 3 anyway, it may have changed for 4) are "just" guidance and not legally enforceable. It does seem likely they'll be breaking one or more of the legally binding restrictions once they get where they're going though.

All of the people crammed into the trains out of King's Cross last night should have been taken off the train at Stevenage, had their names and addresses taken, and told that they could resume their journey but would be breaking the law if they didn't report to a police station back in London by noon today to prove they weren't staying overnight outside tier 4. Because that's how it appears the law has been framed.

[My Name Is Ian]

Ian, damn that must be a difficult situation.

I don't like the uncomfortable positions her behaviour over the last few months keeps putting me in. I mean, she works in a care home, FFS.

[Patrick Thistle]

Mind you, opening on January 18th seems ludicrous to me too. Schools should probably be shut for the rest of the academic year

Based on what several parents have said to me, often in work meetings with lots of people present, I think there would be violence if schools weren't reopened. Many people barely coped having kids at home in the first lockdown.

(There may be some hyperbole when people describe it as "awful" or "horrific", but I know a family member who felt they were pushed to the edge of a breakdown by it.)

[Patrick Thistle]

I don't like the uncomfortable positions her behaviour over the last few months keeps putting me in. I mean, she works in a care home, FFS.

Ian, this sounds like a shit situation. I can see it was tolerable before it crossed into being dangerous.

[Sporting]

Many people barely coped having kids at home in the first lockdown.

I daresay some of these parents may have barely coped with having kids, period.

[My Name Is Ian]

Well, this is the last time it happens. I've already told her I'm not having anyone from Tier 3 or 4 anywhere near this house, and that if she travels into London during these restrictions I'll be moving out and taking the kids with me.

I'd held back before because had I mentioned it, it probably would been turned round and thrown back at me. But I haven't seen my new (not new any more) partner in eleven months because we are following the rules. The only rationalisation I can manage for about 90% of her behaviour is that she's a goddam sociopath.

[Sporting]

Ian, thanks for sharing with us what must be a very hard situation. Just one question: who owns the house?

[Patrick Thistle]

Stay strong, mate, and we're here if you need to express frustrations

[Satchmo Distel]

BBC World Service had an expert who stressed the difference between 'variant' and 'strain'. COVID-19 has not been around long enough to produce new strains, only new variants.

Unfortunately the government and media are using the two terms interchangeably

[Diable Rouge]

Looks like Ireland will follow the Belgian and Dutch lead by banning travel from GB.

[Fussbudget]

The WHO seems not to be too worried about The Strain That's Stolen Christmas

Viruses mutate regularly, and scientists have found thousands different of mutations among samples of the virus causing COVID-19. But many of these changes have no effect on how easily the virus spreads or how severe symptoms are.

Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO’s technical lead on COVID-19, told reporters after receiving notification from England this week that the U.N. health agency had “no evidence this variant behaves differently” and that it was similar to a variant initially reported among mink in Europe. She said scientists would study the virus strain to see if there might be any difference in how it prompts an immune response in people.

As I understand it, the idea that the new variant is more infectious comes on the one hand from the nature of the mutations they've observed when sequencing its genome (as some of them make the virus more effective at binding to ACE2 receptors), and on the other hand from the speed at which it has spread to become the dominant variant in London and the South East. So it hasn't been demonstrated beyond doubt, but it's a reasonable hypothesis.

Of course it's perfectly possible for this variant to be both more virulent and a convenient excuse for the government to cover their arses. For one thing, they would already have known about this new variant when they made the decision to go ahead with relaxing the rules over the Christmas period, as it was first identified 3 months ago and has been spreading rapidly in London and Kent since at least mid-November.

[My Name Is Ian]

Ian, thanks for sharing with us what must be a very hard situation. Just one question: who owns the house?

We rent it in joint names.

[Patrick Thistle]

Not going to say the word that sprung to mind when I saw this

https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1340659348905857024?s=19

[Satchmo Distel]

As I understand it, the idea that the new variant is more infectious comes on the one hand from the nature of the mutations they've observed when sequencing its genome (as some of them make the virus more effective at binding to ACE2 receptors), and on the other hand from the speed at which it has spread to become the dominant variant in London and the South East. So it hasn't been demonstrated beyond doubt, but it's a reasonable hypothesis.

Of course it's perfectly possible for this variant to be both more virulent and a convenient excuse for the government to cover their arses. For one thing, they would already have known about this new variant when they made the decision to go ahead with relaxing the rules over the Christmas period, as it was first identified 3 months ago and has been spreading rapidly in London and Kent since at least mid-November.

Yet the BBC will let Hancock et al spin the lie that this variant caught them by surprise, when in reality thay were gambling that it wouldn't hit the NHS until January.

OTOH we need to knock conspiracy theories on the head which claim the new variant is a lie. It's scientifically verified. Apologies if this has already been posted:

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/e...of-sars-cov-2/

N501Y seems to be the key factor.

[Diable Rouge]

https://twitter.com/vincekearney/status/1340665214279270407

[My Name Is Ian]

Starting to wonder whether this has all been deliberately teed up so we don't notice no deal Brexit.