Covid-19 pandemic

[anton pulisov]

All I can say is



And hope for the best

That said....

I can fit some statistical extrapolations to stuff if people would like.

[ursus arctos]

[URL="https://twitter.com/covid19tracking/status/1247281815888560129?s=21"]https://twitter.com/covid19tracking/status/1247281815888560129[/URL]

[That Night In Barcelona]

The replies on Twitter are saying that Indiana has done very little testing and most businesses seem to have remained open as 'essential'.

[Bruno]

Ohio (next door to Indiana) has admitted 371 in ICU. There are 5 million fewer people in Indiana.

[ursus arctos]

Indiana is of course the state that brought us both the "head" of the "task force" and the Surgeon General (who had served in the same role for Pence back home)

Ohio, of course, only has a number of the best medical facilities in the world.

[San Bernardhinault]

Ohio also, somehow, seems to have accidentally found itself with a Republican governor who's not a complete moron (even if he is still an arsehole on many matters).

[Bruno]

My sources tell me the Clinic docs are happy with DeWine's leadership on this.

[San Bernardhinault]

It seems that - apart from his idiotic attempt to leverage this into an abortion ban - he's done a relatively competent job by anyone's standards, and an absolutely stellar one in comparison to other Republican leadership.

[Bruno]

It seems that - apart from his idiotic attempt to leverage this into an abortion ban - he's done a relatively competent job by anyone's standards, and an absolutely stellar one in comparison to other Republican leadership.

There's just been a ruling on that from the Sixth District, and the facilities are to stay open. The state's appeal was that "the [health] director's order [against 'non-essential surgeries'] is designed to preserve PPEs for those responding to the COVID-19 pandemic."

[San Bernardhinault]

It's obviously nonsense, because abortions are obviously essential (unless you think they're not urgent and it's fine to wait until the pandemic is over and the pregnancies are in their third trimester...)

[Bruno]

Obviously the term "essential" is under dispute, yeah.

The state's Sixth U.S. District Court of Appeals said the temporary restraining order [on the closure order] is narrowly tailored and that healthcare providers are to determine if a surgical abortion procedure can be safely postponed to maximize healthcare resources to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. The appeals court said if a healthcare provider determines that the surgical procedure is medically indicated and cannot be delayed, based on the timing of pre-viability or other medical conditions, the procedure is deemed legally essential to preserve a woman's rights to constitutionally protected access to abortions.

The court denied the stay of the temporary restraining order saying, the “case-by-case basis” determination does not permit “blanket ‘on-demand provision of elective abortions,’” and that 'Plaintiffs may not perform surgical abortions if they can induce the same abortion medicinally or perform abortions that can be delayed without jeopardizing the mother’s health, life, or ability to exercise her Fourteenth Amendment right to a pre-viability abortion'." With that clarification, we are not persuaded that the TRO threatens to inflict irretrievable harms or consequences before it expires, and it requires no affirmative action by the State.

[San Bernardhinault]

117 more today, up to 1326. I think this is the first time that a Sunday's increase beat a Saturday increase. Although as a percentage it's not that different. 249 in hospital. 94 in ICU. The ratio of positive tests to ICU cases (in San Diego) has remained constant between 7 and 8 percent since I started checking. Today it's right at the bottom of that range.

A mere 78 new cases today, taking us up to 1,404 in the county. 269 of whom are in hospital and 102 of whom are in ICU. We keep our fairly low death toll at 19.

That's the lowest new total for 8 days - it's possibly still Sunday under-reporting, but it looks like we're out of exponential growth for the time being and it's either linear or even reversing.

There's no data that I can find on recovered patients or patients leaving ICU.

[Hot Pepsi]

I think the US will give up early.

[ursus arctos]

Today is dystopian hellscapes

https://twitter.com/iamjohnpollock/status/1247361898418515969

The Ultimate Fighting Championship is the leading Mixed Martial Arts Franchise.

White is an enthusiastic supporter of the President (of course he is).

[ursus arctos]

Austria, which has been relatively spared with the exception of the Ischgl cluster, is the first EU country to announce a significant loosening of its "lockdown"

As of 14 April, smaller stores with less that 400 square metres of retail space will be allowed to re-open, as will garden and DIY centres. Larger stores are scheduled for 1 May, with the hotel and restaurant industry slated to re-start operations on 15 May.

[Janik]

Call them the guinea pigs. Let’s see if they can stick to that timetable or are rushing to end things too early.

Meanwhile, a health warning on investing too much emphasis in the daily stats - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52167016
Sorry to Balderdasha and her sterling work collating these.

One hopes the health authorities have swifter access to more accurate unofficial stats that don’t get released publicly, as that is required information to make informed operational decisions. It wouldn’t be secretiveness either, but would make sense; an untested patient dies, the doctor notes it as probably COVID-19 related but needs confirming. That case goes to the unofficial private stats as a death due to the disease, but can only be announced as part of the public record of cases when the confirmation has happened and the diagnosis is 100% sure.

[Patrick Thistle]

A surgeon at Cardiff's main hospital has died from Covid.

[Balderdasha]

Call them the guinea pigs. Let’s see if they can stick to that timetable or are rushing to end things too early.

Meanwhile, a health warning on investing too much emphasis in the daily stats - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52167016
Sorry to Balderdasha and her sterling work collating these.

One hopes the health authorities have swifter access to more accurate unofficial stats that don’t get released publicly, as that is required information to make informed operational decisions. It wouldn’t be secretiveness either, but would make sense; an untested patient dies, the doctor notes it as probably COVID-19 related but needs confirming. That case goes to the unofficial private stats as a death due to the disease, but can only be announced as part of the public record of cases when the confirmation has happened and the diagnosis is 100% sure.

No need to apologise. I know there'll be spikes and troughs. I don't expect the data I have access to to be entirely accurate. I still find it interesting to drill into some of the numbers!

[Balderdasha]

And on that note, global deaths have been slightly lower over the last few days. 4,200 ish at the weekend, and 5,227 yesterday.

What I think we might be seeing is the death rate in Europe slowing down a little as the lockdown measures take effect, whereas some of the other countries coming up the ranks haven't hit their peak death rates yet, and possibly don't have enough testing to confirm causes of death.

I very much doubt that this will be the peak of global deaths.

[Snake Plissken]

Yup, that's a good point. The areas with the highest rate of infection seem to be the wealthier parts of the country where families had spent their half term in Europe, skiiing in Italy and so on so perhaps London is just ahead of the curve.

I do often wonder what the reaction would be if the spread had come from someone more - how can I put this delicately - more associated with the holidaying habits of the less affluent members of British society.

[Nefertiti2]

Joinzoe the app gathering statistics in the UK is starting to put its data onl;ine

[Furtho]

[URL]https://twitter.com/saitomri/status/1247441201956933632[/URL]

Guh. Looks like the dinner was on 31st March.

[Nefertiti2]

Hospices on the brink

https://twitter.com/unitetheunion/status/1247413726145380353?s=20

[Balderdasha]

Deaths worldwide are over 75,000 now.

[Balderdasha]

Hungary has over 800 cases.