The battle for Spain

[Discordant Resonance]

It appears the right will fall short, and finish on 169 seats, which, given none of the regional parties will shoot themselves in the foot by supporting them, might as well be 69 seats, so fresh elections seem inevitable.

[Nefertiti2]

90.77% counted
PP-EPP: 32.5%
PSOE-S&D: 32.1%
VOX-ECR: 12.4%
Sumar-LEFT|G/EFA: 12.2%

ERC-G/EFA: 1.9%Junts-NI: 1.7% EH Bildu-LEFT: 1.5% PNV-RE: 1.2% BNG-G/EFA: 0.6%

[Discordant Resonance]

This will be the first time Bildu ever won more seats than the PNV, although a predecessor called Amaiur performed similarly in 2011. Esquerra collapsed due to a stalemate in negotiations between Catalonia and the central government, with its supporters accordingly abstaining, and the PSOE thereby gaining in the region.

[DCI Harry Batt]

So basically it all comes down to what Junts do?

[ursus arctos]

I'm not a Spanish expert but it doesn't look like a stable result to me.

My bet would be on another election within a year

[Nefertiti2]

Looks as though Catalonia voted PSOE and kept the far right out- for the moment anyway

[Discordant Resonance]

I'm not a Spanish expert but it doesn't look like a stable result to me.

My bet would be on another election within a year

Almost certainly.

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

Disaster at least postponed, some cause for relief given the results feared/expected today.

[Sporting]

Some good analysis here:

https://english.elpais.com/spain/202...ties-open.html

https://english.elpais.com/spain/202...labyrinth.html

However, this comment:

"The Catalan independence movement came out seriously damaged after Sunday’s vote. The 23 deputies it gathered four years ago between the pro-independence Catalan Republican Left (ERC), Junts and CUP has been drastically reduced to 14"

seems to ignore the abstentionists.

"As always, the tiny hamlet of Villarroya (in the northern region of La Rioja) was the first to close the polls after its seven registered residents once again broke their own record, and in just 26 seconds exercised their right to vote."

[DCI Harry Batt]

So what's the chat?

[Sporting]

A lot will depend on how negotiations go with Junts.

[DCI Harry Batt]

Is that likely to be days, weeks, months?

[Sporting]

No idea!!!

[DCI Harry Batt]

I need some rolling fevered speculation.

[Discordant Resonance]

This being Spain we're talking about, both the Socialists and the PP will spend months in fruitless discussions and votes, and then Sanchez will dissolve the stillborn Cortes in October, in order that the election is held roughly a week before Christmas.

[Felicity, I guess so]

A colleague, who should know better, asked me what I thought of the results.

"ĄNo pasarán!" I replied, to which they said "Yeah but the left will have to get a coalition with a bunch of weird independantists..."

[DCI Harry Batt]

Jordi Turull, Together’s secretary-general and one of nine leaders jailed for his role in the breakaway movement, said the party would demand two things: a proper referendum on self-determination for Catalonia and an amnesty for all those facing criminal proceedings over the 2017 vote

Junts starting out at a maximal position, obvs.

(I want to share the FT link, but it's too weird, so here's the whole piece)

Spain’s election stalemate has given a kingmaker role to a fugitive living in Belgium whose Catalan separatist party could determine whether Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez stays in power. Simply by abstaining, the seven MPs of Together for Catalonia — a party under the sway of a man prosecutors sought an arrest warrant for on Monday — have the power to give Sánchez’s Socialists a route back to government from Spain’s inconclusive election. The opposition People’s party, the pre-vote favourite, is also embarking on talks with small regional groups in parliament in a bid to secure a governing majority. But it is the Socialists who have the best chance of success — if they can win over Together for Catalonia. The party, also known as Junts, takes a hardline stance on separatism and still refers to its founder Carles Puigdemont as “president”. He has been in self-imposed exile in Brussels since Spain triggered a European arrest warrant against him for leading Catalonia’s 2017 bid to break away from Spain. As Spain was digesting the election results on Monday, Spanish prosecutors asked a judge to reissue the warrant for Puigdemont, a member of the European parliament, after he was stripped of his immunity by an EU judge earlier this month. Prosecutors say he could face six to 12 years in prison for embezzlement linked to a disputed independence referendum six years ago. “One day you are decisive [to forming] a Spanish government, the next day Spain orders your arrest,” Puigdemont, who regularly appears at party meetings via video link, wrote on Twitter.

On Monday, the leftwing Sumar party, which would join Sánchez’s Socialists in a coalition government, authorised its official Jaume Asens to begin talking to Together about a possible deal to give the prime minister another term. But Puigdemont’s allies were quick to signal publicly that Together would set a high price. “We are not here to save the kingdom of Spain but to serve Catalonia,” said Míriam Nogueras, Together’s parliamentary spokesperson. “We will not make Sánchez prime minister in exchange for nothing.” Jordi Turull, Together’s secretary-general and one of nine leaders jailed for his role in the breakaway movement, said the party would demand two things: a proper referendum on self-determination for Catalonia and an amnesty for all those facing criminal proceedings over the 2017 vote, which judges had ruled illegal. Sánchez controversially pardoned the nine people who had been jailed in an effort to cool tensions in 2021, but hundreds more still face investigations or penalties over the 2017 vote, including bans from public office, according to pro-independence group Ōmnium Cultural. It would be constitutionally impossible for Sánchez to allow an independence referendum and difficult to offer a full amnesty. “But those are maximalist demands,” said Pablo Simón, a professor of politics at Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. “Together is starting out hardline, then let’s see what happens.”

Forming a government requires an absolute majority of 176 seats in Spain’s 350-seat congress. Sánchez could reach 172 with his existing coalition partner, now under the banner of Sumar, and other Catalan and Basque separatist parties that have consistently voted with him since 2018. But he would need the support of Together, which has seven seats, to bridge the final gap. Another option for Puigdemont’s party would be to abstain from the investiture vote, which would reduce the majority Sánchez needs to 172. MPs from Together voted against Sánchez when he formed a government in 2019 but have supported some of his legislative initiatives since then. In this year’s election, the PP campaigned fiercely against Sánchez for the “Frankenstein” government it said he had created, building a coalition with radical leftists that relied on votes of Catalan and Basque separatists. The addition of Together to the mix would intensify the criticism.

Last year, Together quit a regional coalition government with the other main pro-independence party, the more moderate Catalan Republican Left (ERC), accusing it of not fighting hard enough for the region’s secession. Both parties performed poorly in the general election, with Together losing one seat and the ERC losing six. Sánchez became the head of a caretaker government on Monday. Congress will convene on August 17 and the king will then meet party leaders to determine who has enough support to become prime minister. An investiture vote is not likely until September, but if no one can form a government new elections could be called for December or January.

[Lang Spoon]

I'm old enough to remember the fuckin PP ruling with the connivance of the PNV. "Frankenstein Government".

[DCI Harry Batt]

So it seems that overseas votes have put the two blocs neck and neck, meaning that Junts would have to vote in favour (or at least one of them would) rather than just abstain.

[Lang Spoon]

Those Pijos holding the balance of power isn't great.

[ad hoc]

It's better than Vox holding it

[Lang Spoon]

Aye, but I don't trust Junts to do anything but give the advantage back to PP/Vox.

[Discordant Resonance]

Vox have been fairly open about wanting to abolish the Generalitat, so would have few worries on that score.

[Discordant Resonance]

Sumar propose that Basque, Catalan and Galician could be officially used in parliamentary debates, which has been a long-running bone of contention, but will undoubtedly be viewed by some as an appeal by the present government to the regional parties.

[Discordant Resonance]

In a blatant attempt to canvass for PNV support, both the PP and Vox have proposed that the former would form a minority government, with the latter staying in opposition, but given the cat's paw scenario that would ensue, the Basques sensibly and immediately rejected the idea.