The battle for Spain

[Lang Spoon]

Fuckin Podemos man.

[Discordant Resonance]

Infighting within the Spanish left has re-erupted in recent days, with Podemos splitting from the Sumar coalition, largely as the former felt disenfranchised following the allocation of ministries, and a clash of personalities between Yolanda Diaz (Sumar) and Ione Belarra (Podemos). Diaz is in by far the more powerful position, still commanding 26 MPs to Belarra's 5, and while Podemos will sit with regional parties in a mixed Cortes group, they have promised to keep the coalition in office.

[Discordant Resonance]

The PNV are reminiscent of nothing less than vintage FF in terms of wiliness in negotiations, and maintaining an iron-clad grip on power in the face of various challenges.

[Discordant Resonance]

And, rather improbably, Sanchez has secured the backing of every regional party, bar the right-wing Navarrese grouping:

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1722912573878632785

[Lang Spoon]

Sanchez's government has reached a deal with Junts on a Catalan amnesty, which could see him re-elected as PM within days.

Watch Vox (and the PP less explicitly) ramp up the violence so.

[Lang Spoon]

Interesting that support for Catalan independence remains roughly virtually the same as six years ago, even after everything that subsequently occurred:

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1708450742955057251

https://electomania.es/ep-1oct-el-no...y-en-cataluna/

same as Scotland so (though yes and no has seen churn since Brexit- the 45 yes include pro EU former No, and the 55 include Scexit favouring Indy weirdos).

[Discordant Resonance]

Sanchez's government has reached a deal with Junts on a Catalan amnesty, which could see him re-elected as PM within days.

[Discordant Resonance]

Interesting that support for Catalan independence remains roughly virtually the same as six years ago, even after everything that subsequently occurred:

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1708450742955057251

https://electomania.es/ep-1oct-el-no...y-en-cataluna/

[Sporting]

VOX are pure fascists.

[Discordant Resonance]

https://twitter.com/EoghanGilmartin/status/1704079718172029425

[ursus arctos]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.pol...ependence/amp/

[Discordant Resonance]

In a blatant attempt to canvass for PNV support, both the PP and Vox have proposed that the former would form a minority government, with the latter staying in opposition, but given the cat's paw scenario that would ensue, the Basques sensibly and immediately rejected the idea.

[Discordant Resonance]

Sumar propose that Basque, Catalan and Galician could be officially used in parliamentary debates, which has been a long-running bone of contention, but will undoubtedly be viewed by some as an appeal by the present government to the regional parties.

[Discordant Resonance]

Vox have been fairly open about wanting to abolish the Generalitat, so would have few worries on that score.

[Lang Spoon]

Aye, but I don't trust Junts to do anything but give the advantage back to PP/Vox.

[ad hoc]

It's better than Vox holding it

[Lang Spoon]

Those Pijos holding the balance of power isn't great.

[DCI Harry Batt]

So it seems that overseas votes have put the two blocs neck and neck, meaning that Junts would have to vote in favour (or at least one of them would) rather than just abstain.

[Lang Spoon]

I'm old enough to remember the fuckin PP ruling with the connivance of the PNV. "Frankenstein Government".

[DCI Harry Batt]

Jordi Turull, Together’s secretary-general and one of nine leaders jailed for his role in the breakaway movement, said the party would demand two things: a proper referendum on self-determination for Catalonia and an amnesty for all those facing criminal proceedings over the 2017 vote

Junts starting out at a maximal position, obvs.

(I want to share the FT link, but it's too weird, so here's the whole piece)

Spain’s election stalemate has given a kingmaker role to a fugitive living in Belgium whose Catalan separatist party could determine whether Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez stays in power. Simply by abstaining, the seven MPs of Together for Catalonia — a party under the sway of a man prosecutors sought an arrest warrant for on Monday — have the power to give Sánchez’s Socialists a route back to government from Spain’s inconclusive election. The opposition People’s party, the pre-vote favourite, is also embarking on talks with small regional groups in parliament in a bid to secure a governing majority. But it is the Socialists who have the best chance of success — if they can win over Together for Catalonia. The party, also known as Junts, takes a hardline stance on separatism and still refers to its founder Carles Puigdemont as “president”. He has been in self-imposed exile in Brussels since Spain triggered a European arrest warrant against him for leading Catalonia’s 2017 bid to break away from Spain. As Spain was digesting the election results on Monday, Spanish prosecutors asked a judge to reissue the warrant for Puigdemont, a member of the European parliament, after he was stripped of his immunity by an EU judge earlier this month. Prosecutors say he could face six to 12 years in prison for embezzlement linked to a disputed independence referendum six years ago. “One day you are decisive [to forming] a Spanish government, the next day Spain orders your arrest,” Puigdemont, who regularly appears at party meetings via video link, wrote on Twitter.

On Monday, the leftwing Sumar party, which would join Sánchez’s Socialists in a coalition government, authorised its official Jaume Asens to begin talking to Together about a possible deal to give the prime minister another term. But Puigdemont’s allies were quick to signal publicly that Together would set a high price. “We are not here to save the kingdom of Spain but to serve Catalonia,” said Míriam Nogueras, Together’s parliamentary spokesperson. “We will not make Sánchez prime minister in exchange for nothing.” Jordi Turull, Together’s secretary-general and one of nine leaders jailed for his role in the breakaway movement, said the party would demand two things: a proper referendum on self-determination for Catalonia and an amnesty for all those facing criminal proceedings over the 2017 vote, which judges had ruled illegal. Sánchez controversially pardoned the nine people who had been jailed in an effort to cool tensions in 2021, but hundreds more still face investigations or penalties over the 2017 vote, including bans from public office, according to pro-independence group Òmnium Cultural. It would be constitutionally impossible for Sánchez to allow an independence referendum and difficult to offer a full amnesty. “But those are maximalist demands,” said Pablo Simón, a professor of politics at Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. “Together is starting out hardline, then let’s see what happens.”

Forming a government requires an absolute majority of 176 seats in Spain’s 350-seat congress. Sánchez could reach 172 with his existing coalition partner, now under the banner of Sumar, and other Catalan and Basque separatist parties that have consistently voted with him since 2018. But he would need the support of Together, which has seven seats, to bridge the final gap. Another option for Puigdemont’s party would be to abstain from the investiture vote, which would reduce the majority Sánchez needs to 172. MPs from Together voted against Sánchez when he formed a government in 2019 but have supported some of his legislative initiatives since then. In this year’s election, the PP campaigned fiercely against Sánchez for the “Frankenstein” government it said he had created, building a coalition with radical leftists that relied on votes of Catalan and Basque separatists. The addition of Together to the mix would intensify the criticism.

Last year, Together quit a regional coalition government with the other main pro-independence party, the more moderate Catalan Republican Left (ERC), accusing it of not fighting hard enough for the region’s secession. Both parties performed poorly in the general election, with Together losing one seat and the ERC losing six. Sánchez became the head of a caretaker government on Monday. Congress will convene on August 17 and the king will then meet party leaders to determine who has enough support to become prime minister. An investiture vote is not likely until September, but if no one can form a government new elections could be called for December or January.

[Felicity, I guess so]

A colleague, who should know better, asked me what I thought of the results.

"¡No pasarán!" I replied, to which they said "Yeah but the left will have to get a coalition with a bunch of weird independantists..."

[Discordant Resonance]

This being Spain we're talking about, both the Socialists and the PP will spend months in fruitless discussions and votes, and then Sanchez will dissolve the stillborn Cortes in October, in order that the election is held roughly a week before Christmas.

[DCI Harry Batt]

I need some rolling fevered speculation.

[Sporting]

No idea!!!

[DCI Harry Batt]

Is that likely to be days, weeks, months?