Results carry over to phase two, so while defeat to the Windies might hurt Ireland, securing the second qualification berth would prove somewhat easier if HK hang on today.
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The Afghans need to hope that Nepal beat Hong Kong, which would get them into the Super Sixes, but with no points to carry over and the West Indies and Ireland still to play it's a huge challenge even then. Scotland and Zimbabwe are through but their game could be crucial for the overall qualification.
In the other pool, the Dutch have to beat the West Indies, and then hope that Ireland vs UAE is a one-sided mismatch (it doesn't matter which wins as long as the loser takes a big NRR hit). Otherwise both them and the Windies go through. PNG are eliminated without a win.
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The Afghans are victims of the format. 10% ahead of Zimbabwe in the rankings but likely to finish below them in a tournament staged in Zimbabwe.
OTOH for West Indies it may be a useful way to get some 50 over form, and the Super Six format protects them from the occasional bad day at the office which might have sunk them in a knock-out tournament.
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