MLB 2024: Stolen Bases and Treatment Tables

[ursus arctos]

I also think that HP is spot on with the role of inequality in this.

There is a growing segment of the US population, especially men, who don't see a viable route to comfort, let alone affluence, in the contemporary economy. This the attraction of the many different threads of "moonshot" culture, be it gambling, crypto, meme stocks, "influencing", etc.

It is profoundly depressing, and is very much compounded in the gambling context by the growing rejection of progressive taxation in many states in favour of increasing reliance on "alternative" sources such as "sin taxes".

HP is also correct about the role of Nevada gaming interests in California.

That said, I do think that California on the whole is less committed to sports gambling than other states because it is less committed to sports, and more committed to other types of moonshots.

dglh is also spot on in noting that there has been virtually no engagement with the coming wave of societal ills linked to problem gambling.

[San Bernardhinault]

Yes. I basically agree with all of you. Also that California may not need the extra revenue from sports gambling as urgently as other states.

[danielmak]

I found ex-lawyer Calcaterra's analysis to be thorough

https://cupofcoffee.beehiiv.com/p/cu...RRRUxU5W_nMR4I

His three theories at the end present two very bad outcomes for Ohtani. As a fan who expects everything to go wrong, I fear that one of these two will end up being the truth.

[ursus arctos]

As he says, the second (Ohtani covering Ippei's debts) is by far the Occam's Razor option

[danielmak]

Yes. I basically agree with all of you. Also that California may not need the extra revenue from sports gambling as urgently as other states.

I know it's dangerous to compare the politics of most other states to Illinois,** but I will. Illinois politicians were opposed to legalized gambling and legalized weed. In fact, there was a straw poll query on the ballot in 2018, if I remember the date correctly, that polled whether voters generally favored legalizing marijuana. The vote was sealed so voters could not see the results. Then the economy started to get worse and the politicians scrambled to find new tax revenue. I have never seen a faster shift from adamant opposition to something to legalization. This happened in months. Around the same time, Indiana legalized gambling. Politicians realized all of those tax dollars could travel 15-90 minutes and end up in Indiana pockets. Within a year (??) we could buy weed and whatever minimum wage money was left could be gambled away.

Gavin Newsome inherited a massive surplus from Jerry "moonbeam" Brown. Shocking that a guy once nicknamed Moonbeam and once ousted for being too liberal for California could save money that Newsome has drained to a multi-billion dollar deficit.*** He haggles over the amount of billions but the reality is that he went from a surplus to a crazy deficit. Because Californians have wisely taken a lot of voting out of the politicians' hands via a crazy quantity of ballot measures, and they seem to vote down most things that raise taxes and also don't seem to love bond measures, the state is going to have to find new tax revenue somewhere. They claim they will raise taxes on the rich. That's laughable. Rich people hire accountants and lawyers to diminish their tax bills. The conclusion from all this: Debt + no real new tax revenue from residents = a quest for new tax revenue. Weed has already been legalized, other drugs probably don't generate much tax income since legalizing stimulants for a growing meth-addicted population won't equal tax dollars, politicians won't touch prostitution, can't add any more taxes to gasoline without pissing off voters, soda and sugar taxes tend to fund health programs (FYI, Cook County in Illinois passed such a measure and it lasted two months because people were pissed). All that's left is gambling. Purchase your Draft Kings stock now because legalized gambling in California will be a massive win for the gambling industry.

**Most posters in this thread live in the US but some don't, so I'll explain this qualifier. The joke in Illinois is that someone is basically in political office for life unless they are sent to prison for whatever they have done to ensure their lifetime appointment.

***I am aware that no single political figure is responsible for a strong economy or a weak economy, a surplus or debt but governors and presidents become figureheads because they can either sign or block budgets.

[caja-dglh]

Mets join in on the deferred payment game with JD Martinez who sadly didn't elect to take his deferred payments on July 1 like any right-minded individual would.

[danielmak]

I saw highlights of Ohtani's press conference. I don't know if I'm buying all of this. I have never sent a wire transfer, but I have talked with a few folks who have and they say it's a very complicated process to set up the first transfer. And a lot of info is required. It's hard to see how a guy who is so in control of the world around him that he would be giving bank account info to a translator, even if the translator was like a brother. I think that digging in on this story that money was stolen is going to prove to be a mistake. And it makes no sense that the first time the translator shares everything, it's in English and to the team in the clubhouse.

[ursus arctos]

That just isn't true for domestic wire transfers, particularly when one has anything like Ohtani's wealth.

And I strongly believe that Ippei was much more an LA style "personal assistant" than he was a "translator".

[caja-dglh]

Yeah - there are enough people who successfully wire their down-payment for a house to a fraud rather than the correct law firm / title company. The diligence is near 100% on the person sending the funds. The idea that Ohtani outsourced "all stuff in English" to Ippei seems sadly believable.

[ursus arctos]

One of the reasons our co-op still requires physical certified cheques.

[ursus arctos]

A good question from The Athletic

How does this (as reported by Fabian Ardaya) happen? “Every communication from the Dodgers, agent Nez Balelo or his representatives at CAA went through Mizuhara, even without Ohtani present. That meant no one from the Dodgers or CAA supposedly ever talked to Ohtani directly about the looming story involving Mizuhara before the interpreter addressed the club after Wednesday’s season opener.” (Emphasis mine.)

[danielmak]

This was the thing I was trying to get at in the second part of my message last night but perhaps buried in the wire transfer stuff. Ohtani's press conference suggested that he had no idea what was going on. He's in the clubhouse in Korea and Mizuhara is addressing the team in English. Ohtani is there and can only track so much of what is going on. The whole thing is just crazy. I take your point above, UA, that he was functioning like a personal assistant, but I would think Ohtani is also tracking his money in some capacity and meeting with other people who are keeping track of his money. I'd think maybe his parents are involved in some way even if out of the limelight. If we remove the idea that Ohtani is the gambler and Mizuhara is taking the fall (and I still believe that's a big possibility) then thing that resonates for me is that people seem to think that Ohtani has a network of support around him but he really does not. His wealth and superstar status obscure the fact that he's not really capable of managing his life outside of playing baseball.

[ursus arctos]

I realize that it can be hard to get one's head around, but I can assure you from personal experience that people of Ohtani's wealth and income level often don't pay attention to their finances and would genuinely not notice a transfer of USD 500,000 (or even multiple transfers totalling USD 4.5 million, especially if money was coming in).

And the cases I am aware of are all of native speakers.

[danielmak]

MLB Network is reporting that Jordan Montgomery has signed a one year deal with the D-backs, who have a vesting option for a second year if Montegomery hits an innings expectation.

[ursus arctos]

Mike Trout homers in his first at bat of the season.

The Angels lose 11-3.

Won't be the first time this season.

[danielmak]

Mike Trout homers in his first at bat of the season.

The Angels lose 11-3.

Won't be the first time this season.

No, it won't. I feel bad for the Angels even if Arte Moreno wanted that stupid name Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and he's been star struck by body types that are easily injured. The fact that he went for it last year rather than trading Shohei to get something, is admirable. And it will be another year without Mike Trout in the playoffs (and probably another year with Rendon injured).

Dodgers hammered the Cardinals, with only Goldschmidt standing out.

[ursus arctos]

15 minutes before first pitch at the A's home opener

[Hot Pepsi]

It’s a goddamned crime.

[jefe]

It filled in more by about the 3rd, but the way the cameras were constantly taking low and tight shots whenever possible was very funny.

[Exiled off Main Street]

Tyler O'Neill set a MLB record last night. He homered for the Red Sox which meant he has now homered in 5 consecutive Opening Day games. (obscure records Inc)

[Exiled off Main Street]

Dan Shaughnessy today....

Picked-up pieces while finally understanding the message Fenway Sports Group has delivered to loyal Red Sox fans around the world …

From this point forward, you walk alone.

▪ Sadly, that’s it right there, folks. After a couple of decades of all-in, four-championship, money-is-no-object ownership, Red Sox boss John Henry evidently has decided that the Sox are no longer a top priority, but merely a part of “a global sports, marketing, media, entertainment and real estate portfolio.” FSG is out of the winning business with its baseball team in 2024, and Sox fans have every right to feel abandoned.

Red Sox Nation was once like FSG’s prized Premier League soccer team, whose fans locked arms, raised a pint, and sang, “You’ll never walk alone.”

No more. If you still care about the Red Sox, you very much walk alone.

It should be clear to all by now: The Red Sox brass is not going to spend money or make much effort to improve this team. The message to Alex Cora, his staff, and fans, is unambiguous: This is your team. Figure it out. We don’t care if you finish last for the fourth time in five years and the seventh time in 13 years, we are not going to spend another penny to make it better. We are done.

Suddenly Red Sox fans are like characters from “Eleanor Rigby.” They are all the lonely people. And I am writing the words of a sermon that no one will hear.

After Tom Werner’s pledge in early November for a “full throttle” offseason, the Sox have arrived in Seattle to open their season this week with a certain-to-break-down starting rotation of Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford, Garrett Whitlock, and Tanner Houck. Aggregate career won-lost record: 105-123.

These are the Boston Red Sox, people.

In 2004 — when the Red Sox were committed to bringing you championships — their starting staff was Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, Derek Lowe, Tim Wakefield, and Bronson Arroyo.

Boston baseball’s winter of neglect was downright demoralizing.

After announcing that some ticket prices would indeed rise again, Henry (who also owns the Globe) skipped the annual Winter Weekend fan festival in Springfield, then went to Saudi Arabia in January to discuss FSG’s $3 billion golf investment with Yasir Al-Rumayyan, who manages Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, which finances the LIV golf tour. Henry hasn’t participated in a Red Sox press conference since trading Mookie Betts in 2020 (which the Sox said was “a baseball move”).

Boston’s still-life winter was packed with cost-cutting and a quest for payroll flexibility over established talent. How else does a team ignore Adam Duvall (21 homers, .834 OPS in 92 games for the Sox in 2023) and sign C.J. Cron to a $2 million minor league deal? Duvall signed with the Braves for $3 million. The Sox released Cron and will go with contract-friendly Bobby Dalbec (.204, one homer in 2023).

The best example of ownership’s neglect unfolded when new Sox starter Lucas Giolito was lost for the season after elbow surgery and the front office did not even pretend to try to get Cora another quality arm. Agents and GMs were astounded when the Sox made zero effort to get “in on” Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. The price was too high even for the immortal Michael Lorenzen — who went to the Rangers for $4.5 million.

The Sox settled for 36-year-old journeyman Chase Anderson (seven teams in 10 seasons; 1-6, 5.75 ERA last year), who makes $1.25 million.

Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow explained the move to the Globe’s Alex Speier, saying, “We have to make the moves that make sense for us working within all of the constraints. It’s really easy to talk about about the financial ones, but there are more.”

“Constraints”?

Maybe fans should go Full Bres-LowBall when they’re at the Fenway ticket window deciding whether to pay some of the highest prices in baseball for the product the Sox are putting on the field. Try telling the person behind the window that you’re working within the “constraints” of your monthly budget. You may have to choose between making your car payment or watching some Triple A players learning on the job in the big leagues.

Cora certainly appears to be in on the joke. We have never seen a manager more comfortable going into the last year of his contract. When the 2024 season is over, Cora is going to cash in with a team willing to spend money.

Here’s the New York Times’s preseason assessment of your team: “The Red Sox once again appear to be a last-place club that didn’t make much effort to get better in the short term.”

Strap yourselves in for the big 162. The Sox are young and hungry and maybe they’ll be fun to watch. The pitching philosophy is better-structured than it was the past two years and the spring training vibe was positive. But they are a largely starless lot who’ve made more errors than any other team in baseball over the last four seasons and have very little pitching at the minor league levels.

It’s pretty obvious that ownership is counting on tourists and pink hats filling the old ballpark for what Werner sells as “the Fenway experience.”

Mercy.

Bad times never seemed so bad.

You’re on your own, Red Sox fans. From this point forward, you walk alone.

[Hot Pepsi]

It filled in more by about the 3rd, but the way the cameras were constantly taking low and tight shots whenever possible was very funny.

There was a big protest in the parking lot.

Of all the big billionaire-owned leagues, I hate MLB the most by far.

[ursus arctos]

Part of it is that they shit on the fans at least 81 times a year

[danielmak]

I think I heard the date correctly but maybe not: At least one team has gone from a losing season to making the playoffs every season since 2005.

Losing would be below .500 so for 2024 that would not include teams like the Cubs, Reds, Yankees, or Padres. Those teams are all picked to contend this season among various experts, and did not make the playoffs in 2023. But all had winning records in 2023.

[ursus arctos]

I would think that the Tigers, Mets and Giants would be the best placed to continue that streak.

Speaking of the Mets, Christian Yelich and a number of his teammates took the 7 train from their midtown hotel to Citi Field for today's game.

Yelich went 3 for 4 and the Brewers won 3-1.

The message for rival clubs visiting the forces of darkness is clear. There are another 80 home games they can lose.