MLB 2024: Stolen Bases and Treatment Tables

[danielmak]

We're a couple weeks away from the start of the season so seems like we need a new threat. This is as good as I can do with a thread title. I expect teams will run a lot more this season. And I heard at some point that almost every team needed 10 starting pitchers last season with almost half needing 15+ starters. The Dodgers and Atlanta didn't hit much in last year's post-season but both lost because starting pitching was non-existent.

I'll post my mostly wrong picks before the season begins. I'd like to see where Snell and Montgomery land, although history seems to show that starters who don't sign until this late usually have poor seasons. Montgomery could probably use the extra rest after a long post-season but the I can't think that the normally erratic Snell is going to benefit from this situation.

[Patrick Thistle]

I feel in my bones that the recent Slam Diego high spending car crash is finally over and the Padres are going to decline back into comfortable and comforting mediocrity this year.

Or finally win a World Series. No half measures.

[Exiled off Main Street]

Red Sox will finsh the season with a .480 win percentage. Man this team is ugly. However, this is written as a way to backward jinx. World Series here we come.

[danielmak]

The Dodgers and Padres fly to South Korea in two days and the season will begin soon, so I'm continuing with my annual fool's errand: picking winners.

I think picking playoff teams is probably easier than division winners, where the Dodgers and Atlanta are probably a lock and that’s it. But my general lack of confidence picking winners is exacerbated by a couple years into the new playoff system and watching the powerhouses sink because of pitching injuries.

AL East
Baltimore
Rays
Yankees
Jays
Red Sox

I am not confident in any of these teams. Baltimore has a lot of talent. I wrote last season that I was not confident in their starting pitching. Adding Burnes is a huge get but I don’t know what to think about the rest of the starting staff. I also think that some of the upstarts suffer from Twins syndrome: hot one season, cold the next, repeat. Rays just keep on keepin’ on. Jays have bit me in the butt too many times. If Cole is out for any length of time, Yankees are in trouble.

AL Central
White Sox
Cleveland
Tigers
Twins
Royals

White Sox under-performed. People talk about them blowing up the team. That actually hasn’t happened. They got rid of veterans who either fell (Lance Lynn) or were injured a lot (Grandol). But I should say that this division should have to play in AAA. It’s bad and I’m choosing among a lot of bad. Twins have the most talent but these guys are injured all the time.


AL West
Houston
Seattle
Rangers
Angels
As

I think Houston will run away with it so I guess I should have listed them above with Dodgers and Atlanta. Pitching injuries have me feeling like the Rangers will drop off.


NL East
Atlanta
Philadelphia
Mets
Florida
Nats

I think the Mets will surprise but not enough. Nats will be better but not enough. Marlins will fall back.


NL Central
Reds
Cubs
Cards
Brewers
Pirates

I think Reds and Cubs will be close. Reds upside is higher for me, but Cubs have more established talent. I would have preferred the Cubs signed someone like Montgomery (not knowing how well he has pitched at Wrigley). Cardinals signed a bunch of old guys and I’m not buying the supposed young talent. I don't see two teams coming out of the Central so ideally I am wrong with this one and the Cubs win the division.


NL West
Dodgers
Padres
D-backs
Giants
Rockies

Rockies will be horrible. D-backs pitching is solid, but their hot playoff run was counter to their season. Of course, I’d rather have a hot playoff run than winning 100+ and being out in the first round. Padres will rebound after shedding some superstars. I think they will finally play like they should have been playing before Preller forgot how to build a team. Giants will be better without Kapler.

AL Wild Card: Rays, Yankees, Rangers
NL Wild Card: Phillies, Padres, D-backs

WS: Atlanta over Houston

I could easily go Dodgers over Houston. I think the Dodgers pitching is better and Atlanta’s starters seem to wear out. Dodgers seem built better to overcome tired pitching and they have strategized to overcome late injuries (i.e., having Buehler start late, re-signing Kershaw who won’t be ready until late). But the Dodgers have multiple guys playing out of position and that is going to be a major problem once the playoffs begin. Muncy who is technically not playing out of position is not good at third. The team defense makes me very nervous--not during the season but during the playoffs.

[ursus arctos]

Montgomery has only pitched against the Cubs seven times in his entire career and was mauleeby the Baby Bears at Wrigley in at least two of those appearances.

[danielmak]

Montgomery has only pitched against the Cubs seven times in his entire career and was mauleeby the Baby Bears at Wrigley in at least two of those appearances.

I mentioned Montgomery because he's been consistently solid and was big in the playoffs last year. I think that experience carries over. Snell worries me more. He's been amazing twice. And good the rest of the time. I don't see the Cubs spending that money. Maybe they'll get in on what used to be called a pillow contract.

[ursus arctos]

Reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole will miss at least the first month or two of the season due to an elbow injury, report Jon Heyman and Mark Sanchez of the New York Post. Cole underwent an MRI earlier this week after experiencing difficulty recovering between spring starts and throwing sessions. The Yankees haven’t made a formal announcement on the injury or a timetable yet. Heyman reports that initial imaging on Cole’s right elbow has not detected a ligament tear, though there’s some inflammation and swelling still present. Cole’s MRI has been reviewed by multiple parties, including renowned surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache. Per the report, ElAttrache did not see a ligament tear but nonetheless suggested an in-person visit to personally examine Cole.

[danielmak]

Cole is a generational ace. Without him, the Yankees are going to have to hit their way to wins. I expected some loss of time, which is why I picked them to finish third in the east. I have low expectations for Rondon, who rarely makes most of his expected starts.

I have yet to read a good explanation for the unique ways that pitchers blow out their arms in MLB. One good explanation is that kids have shifted to single sports when they used to be multi-sport high schoolers. Another is that pitchers throw harder and do more damage at an earlier age. That also makes sense. But the weird twist for me is two-fold: (1) We don't really hear about minor league prospects getting injured (they played one sport and they throw harder than they should). (2) Japanese pitchers seem to be fine until they get to MLB and then almost all end up with the same injuries. Maybe the 6 day rotation saves them in Japan? Either way, it's sad.

[Ginger Yellow]

Another is that pitchers throw harder and do more damage at an earlier age. That also makes sense. But the weird twist for me is two-fold: (1) We don't really hear about minor league prospects getting injured (they played one sport and they throw harder than they should). (2) Japanese pitchers seem to be fine until they get to MLB and then almost all end up with the same injuries.

Naively, the speed thing seems like it has to be part of it. Have the minors/Japan seen the same increase in average fastball speed over the last couple of decades?

[ursus arctos]

Japan has increased, but it is still notably below MLB

https://Twitter.com/yakyucosmo/status/1654675094432800768?s=61&t=xvOireV8JOIS_CpbTtDBow

#2 in NPB would have been 70th in MLB. #10 would be 194th.

[danielmak]

In other news, I saw a report that Cease has been traded to the Padres. I feel more confident that the Padres will be a better team this year and less confident in my pick that the White Sox would win the AL Central. But I won't edit the post. AL Central seems impossible to pick either way. But I can't see the White Sox winning that division without Cease or without Cease pitching like he did two year ago.

[ursus arctos]

The NL West has become a pitching El Dorado

[scratchmonkey]

My neighbor Ronnie hypothesizes that the Giants are seeing everything going down south of Bakersfield and are concentrating on making just enough signings to placate people while keeping their powder dry and trying to continue building up the farm.

[caja-dglh]

the White Sox are trying an interesting strategy of trading away talent while trying to blackmail the city into gifting them another stadium.

[Hot Pepsi]

That’s a tried and true strategy.

[Hot Pepsi]

I’m at Umass Lowell vs Penn State.
9-6 after first inning. Not a pitching clinic.

[San Bernardhinault]

I feel terrible for never having been to a UMass Lowell home game. And now, writing that, I remember the US convention for who the home team is and it all makes more sense.

[ursus arctos]

Lowell only joined the UMass system in the 90s, but is now it's second largest institution, with almost 20,000 students.

They appear to have been successful in using intercollegiate sports as a significant driver for growth.

[Hot Pepsi]

UML - 14
PSU - 21

Final

[ursus arctos]

Dodgers maul KBO doormats Kiwoom 14-3

Padres in a much more competitive match vs the South Korean national team, leading 1-0 in the eighth.

[jefe]

The children are annihilating the Grapefruit League. I am quietly enthused.

[danielmak]

MLB Network news crawl showing that Snell has signed a two-year deal with the Giants. Opt out after the first year. I get the move. He needs to show that he's a dominant pitcher more often than every 5-6 years. But the Giants are also kind of screwed. He is starting so late that it's hard to see him being effective for a while. I would think they might want a 3 year deal with an opt out after year 2. Either way, this is an improvement for them although probably not until May.

[Incandenza]

Would have liked to seen him leave the division, but oh well.

[Incandenza]

I wonder how an interpreter has access to millions of dollars belonging to his client. I'm hoping for the team and Ohtani's sake that this is the case, and not just a convenient explanation.

https://twitter.com/BillShaikin/status/1770563305842913372

[ursus arctos]

Yikes

On the field, today was a good illustration of why they are going to be a problem.

You just can't give that lineup that many at bats, but not doing so is much easier said than done