Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

[anothergoal]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

Another question, if Harper decides to step down without a motion of no confidence, who takes his place? Is there something like the Vice President or the Chancellor of the Exchequer in Canada?

[Anton Gramscescu]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

She WHAT!?

She helped Harper evade the will of parliament? That's fucking insane.

ag, if you mean what happens if he personally steps down? The Deputy PM would presumably take charge on an interim basis until the party can choose a new leader. Usually, when a leader steps down, though, he stays in place until the new leader is chosen.

[WOM]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

We currently have no standing Deputy PM. Would the party nominate an interim leader?

[Amor de Cosmos]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

There's a deputy Prime Minister, but he wouldn't necessarily replace a resigning prime minister. Generally the cabinet would decide who the short term replacement would be I think.

Look at that, three different answers! Shows how much we know about our government eh?

[Anton Gramscescu]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

I can't imagine any possible precedent for this. So from now on GGs can be counted on to help minority governments time their confidence votes? That's appalling.

In practice, Jim Prentice is the Deputy PM and he would almost certainly be names interim leader unless he wanted the position permanently, in which case it would go to a more neutral figure. not that it matters one fucking whit anymore.

[Amor de Cosmos]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

I can't imagine any possible precedent for this. So from now on GGs can be counted on to help minority governments time their confidence votes? That's appalling.

Too right. But refusing to grant it might be worse in the short-term. The prospect of the GG's husband being labeled a separatist fellow-traveller (and worse) by Harper's propaganda machine would be very ugly. He'll be gone, it'll be later rather than sooner, but he's a dead man walking. I expect the Liberal leadership conference to be fast forwarded to mid-January.

[anothergoal]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

It is only delaying the inevitable, so why is Harper delaying the Parliament? Do you think there is any political advantage to this, like the Coalition loosing steam between now and January?

[Amor de Cosmos]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

Oh yes, that's what he's counting on and he's probably right. But the pure venom will last even if the coalition doesn't. No one will work with this guy now and I don't think that ever going to change. He'll almost certainly lose a confidence vote on his budget, however padded with goodies it is. If there's an election in early March, say, the Liberals will have a bright shiny new leader. And the NDP and Bloc will make out like bandits whatever happens. The best Harper can expect is another minority government which will fall again, before that happens though he'll likely be dumped by his party.

[WOM]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

Absolutely. The beauty is that he brought 99% of it on himself. He called for a fall election that wasn't necessary by saying that Parliament wasn't working. Which it was. Then he got another minority, and promptly began governing like he had a majority, introducing no stimulus package, trying to limit the rights of women to litigate for equal pay, taking away the rights of civil servants to strike, and cutting out the $1.95 per-vote public funding of political parties - which would have benefited him and decimated the coffers of the Libs and NDP.

He's a dead man walking, for sure. The only question is for how long.

[Anton Gramscescu]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

I'm not so sure he's dead man walking. He's now got - what? - seven weeks where his party advertsiing can KILL the Liberals. Seven weeks of IggyBob fratricide amongst the Liberals. You think this coalition, negotiated by a lame-duck Liberal leader, will hold for seven weeks of that kind of onslaught? I wouldn't bet the farm on it. It would require a lot of discipline and skill from a Liberal caucus that has shown little of either since the 2004 election.

[Reed John]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

Questions:

Was there an actual formal No Confidence vote after Harper introduced his Fuck You Budget proposal? Or was it just that everyone said "We're not voting for that piece of shit" so it was like a de facto no confidence vote?

How does one go about becoming the Governor General?

Does the Senate have any role in any of this?

Is there anyway that this constitutional kerfuffle could get so out of hand and convoluted that we might also find a way for it to force the ouster of Gary Bettman?

[WOM]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

He can advertise all he wants, and all it can effect is public perception. The public aren't, for all intents and purposes, involved in this. This will lie dormant over the holidays and will kick up again in early January. The Conservatives will table their real budget, the coalition can defeat it, and they can continue as planned. He's just bought himself a few more weeks.
All that will change is that it won't be about the budget anymore. It will be about his trustworthiness and his fitness to act in such rapidly changing circumstances, etc etc.
Or, if it's about the budget, it'll be that its too little, too late, or it's applied in the wrong areas. Doesn't matter, really. It's not about that, and we know that.
Maybe Stefan Dion could learn to speak passable English in the next six weeks and lead us out of the woods, onto a bright and shining path....

[Amor de Cosmos]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

You think this coalition, negotiated by a lame-duck Liberal leader, will hold for seven weeks of that kind of onslaught?

No it's unlikely the 'New Libs on the Bloc' will last, but that doesn't mean they can't, and won't, vote together to bring down the government in any case. Yes Harper has the money but he doesn't have the numbers and I don't see how he can get them. As far as I can tell no one thinks he's right in this, including most Conservatives.

[Reed John]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

So if the budget is voted down, but there isn't a coalition to take over, what happens then? Another election? If that happens could the conservatives, minus Stephen Harper presumably, win another minority government?

[WOM]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

That would indeed trigger another election. Yoy. You'd then have a three-time loser running against a caretaker leader. Nice. Perhaps, as mentioned above, the Libs will move up their leadership convention and have chosen a new head by end of Jan. I doubt it, though. And I've no idea who'd succeed Fat Steve.

[Anton Gramscescu]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

Reed:

Two types of votes are automatically confidence votes: one is on the Speech from the Throne and the other is on the budget. This was neither (although arguably it was part of the response to the Speech from the Throne). But opposition parties can propose no-confidence at any time. They get a day a week or every two weeks (I forget) to put their motions on the agenda, so they are free to do it then. Dec. 8 was to have been one of those days, I think.

Governor Generals are appointed by the Prime Minister. They have often been retired pols - increasingly, they are aging cultural figures. By convention, they alternate between an anglophone and a francophone. The current GG is a Haitian-bron Quebecois TV presenter. The previous GG was a Hong-Kong born Ontario TV presenter. The one before that was a retired but connected pol from the Maritimes known as "the Codfather", whose odious son is the sacrificial francophone in the Liberal leadership race. I could go on, but I can see you're falling asleep.

The Senate has no role in this. A PM neeeds the confidence of the house, not the Senate. The Senate could theoretically keep sending back bils to the House to fuck up a PM, but the last time that happened was 95 years ago. If they ever really tried to oppose an elected government it would be lights out for the Senate and tey have enough self-preservation instincts to avoid this.

Re: Bettman, no, but I think the first political party to propose banning Bettman from entering Canada on the grounds that he is an undesirable alien would pick up at least two or three points in the opinion polls.

[Anton Gramscescu]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

Reed: I'm farily sure Steve's here to stay - but his route to power just changed.

He was going to be the guy who rebuilt the Mulroney coalition - marrying the cowboys with the Quebecoois on the grounds that they both dislike Ottawa. He was assiduous in wooing Quebec. Last night, he tossed that strategy overboard by saying it was illegitimate for the Bloc to be propping up government and leaving Canada "in the hands of separatists". So now his route to power has to involve winning enough seats in the Rest of Canda to win a majority.

Outside of Quebec, there are 233 seats. He needs 155 for a majority. That's a tall order. He needs to seriously whip up anglophone hatred for separaists to do it. If he succeeds, it might just start another constitutional crisis...

[Amor de Cosmos]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

So now his route to power has to involve winning enough seats in the Rest of Canda to win a majority.

Won't happen. Everything I'm hearing out here is down on him like a ton of bricks. Most of the open-mouth radio populist right-wing types consider what happened this morning a gutless thing to do. He might be able to lie, bribe and sweet talk some of them back into line but not all of them.

[Reed John]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

So the Conservatives would keep Stephen Harper going into another election even though it's clearly his fault that all this is happening? My sense is that the populace thinks all of this is really stupid and partisan and not the time for Ottawa to be behaving like a High School student council, so insofar as they blame Harper for triggering this, it would seem they'd want him out. But maybe I'm just not following the story correctly.

Has Bettman ever been to Canada? I'm not sure he has.

[Amor de Cosmos]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

So the Conservatives would keep Stephen Harper going into another election even though it's clearly his fault that all this is happening?

There are no obvious alternatives but expect that to change real soon.

Has Bettman ever been to Canada? I'm not sure he has.

Oh yes, he slinks across the line now and again.

[Anton Gramscescu]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

Reed of the Valley People wrote:

So the Conservatives would keep Stephen Harper going into another election even though it's clearly his fault that all this is happening? My sense is that the populace thinks all of this is really stupid and partisan and not the time for Ottawa to be behaving like a High School student council, so insofar as they blame Harper for triggering this, it would seem they'd want him out. But maybe I'm just not following the story correctly.

Maybe. But would the Conservatives want him out? He had a spectacularly bad week, but he's still the best guy they've got - and they don't have a lot of bench strength.

[Reed John]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

If there's a new election, the question the Conservatives would have to ask is, I suppose, "is having Harper at the top going to cause us to lose any ridings?" and "is there somebody else who would be less damaging?"

What is the length of a GG's term?

[Amor de Cosmos]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

What is the length of a GG's term?

Recently it's been about six years, but that's a convention rather than a designated term I think.

"is having Harper at the top going to cause us to lose any ridings?"

Unquestionably.

and "is there somebody else who would be less damaging?"

Yes, but no one knows who he/she is yet.

Harper's been running a US presidential style government. He's a control freak who's managed from the top down. No one else, with the recent exception of his finance minister, has gained any sort of public profile. That will inevitably change I believe. The pressure on him from within his party will eventually be as great as from without. Maybe it'll take another election for the names to emerge but they will.

[WOM]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

Five years, but it can be extended to seven by the Queen on the advice of the Prime Minister.

As for Harper, he's a favourite of the Conservatives, but a fairly polarizing figure to the rest of Canada. I don't think this whole affair has won him many friends. The main complaint amongst the masses is "I just don't trust him". There's always been this low-level fear that, if he were to get a majority, he'd do all sorts of un-Canadian things like roll-back same sex marriage and...I dunno...make us all go to church. By behaving like a majority and trying to cut off his opposition's election funding last week, I think he's confirmed a lot of peoples' fears. It's also possible he's alienated a few 'let's give him a chance' centrists.

So, while I don't know if he's done himself a lot of harm, I'm certain he's not done himself a lot of good.

[Reed John]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

If that's the case, then it suggests that the last election was their last chance for him to get them a majority. Why keep a guy who has hit his high water mark?