Grey faced crumpled looking cunt. Retire or die.
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I'm hoping that Salvini will come out with one of his typically measured and rational statements on what he thinks of the Brexiteers, but I've been disappointed before.Comment
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Could a Democratic Party-Five Star alliance work, given the latter are rather less dogmatic than Lega?
Forza down to 8% in the latest poll:
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeEle...18730856280075Comment
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It would require a change in leadership, which is problematic given that the PD is essentially a Renzi faction that didn't exist before him and could well not survive his departure.Comment
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Now Di Maio wants talks with Mattarella and is giving out about Salvini:
https://mobile.twitter.com/FerdiGiug...36281720119299Comment
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This wouldn't be the only place where this was true.
https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1001502789749665792
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Solid piece from Bloomberg
So, in the absence of a commitment to the euro zone, the best chance of clarity would be if the next election became a showdown over the single currency. If the euroskeptics won the day, they would have the popular mandate to hire the finance minister of their choice. But, again, this is unlikely to happen given that the populists have thrived through holding an ambiguous position. In the meantime, investors will continue to take flight and Mattarella will still have an impossible job.Comment
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10-yr back down below 3%, FWIW.Comment
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Bond auction results are out. 2.32% on the five-year and 3% on the 10-year, but they didn't get as much as they wanted on the 10-year — EUR 5.6bn total.Comment
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Interesting graph here from Repubblica showing how the percentage of State debt held by individual Italians has fallen considerably, while the percentage held by foreigners has grown
It is in Italian, but shouldn’t be that hard to figure out. It’s also worth noting that a lot of individual Italians now have significant holdings in the Italian banks and institutions that remain very large holders, so they are not at all insulated from risk.
New elections in the fall are looking increasingly likely.Comment
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So Foreigners hold 1/3 of italian debt. What proportion of that €700 billion is held by ECB, IMF and World Bank. Also I wonder what proportion of that is held by other EU countries.Comment
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It's not clear to me that ECB (in its guise as manager of the PSPP) would count as foreign under these stats. I think, though I stand to be corrected, that the bonds are technically bought by the relevant national central banks). Somewhat relatedly, when I'm given investor distributions for (different kinds of) bonds, the ECB shows up as a German investor, presumably because it's headquartered in Frankfurt — that doesn't mean that's how it would show up in official stats, though. Looking at the chart in this article, overseas official investors (eg IMF, World Bank, EBRD, EIB, maybe ECB) hold around 15% of the stock. Note that the ECB's share of recent issuance will be much higher, though.Comment
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Legally though, the ECB can't hold (under the PSPP) more than 25% of any one government bond or more than a third of the total outstanding from any one country.
None of this covers bonds held by the ECB as repo collateral for its ordinary monetary operations.Comment
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Looks like my hunch was right. From a CEPS paper:
A second reason for suspecting that the recent T2 imbalances have a ‘technical’ nature emerges
if one looks more carefully at the individual components of the Eurosystem. One needs to
distinguish between the national central banks (NCBs) and the European Central Bank as the
separate legal entity of the system. The often-repeated statement that ‘the ECB’ is buying €60
billion worth of bonds per month is not actually correct. Only a fraction (10%) of the Public
Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) is implemented by the ECB, with the remaining 90% of the
purchases implemented by the NCBs. The ECB buys only the bonds of multinational or
international institutions, whereas the NCBs are supposed to buy only their own government’s
bonds.Comment
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Which accounts for the recent spike in the red portion of the graph ascribed to the Banca d’Italia.Comment
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This is lesson No. 94 in why macro-economic stats are useless without market context.Comment
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Sounds like a lot of Italian investors are going to be getting scary letters soon.
Also, I had no idea Estonia had such a large retail participation in bank debt.Comment
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What does that link basically mean. It just sounded like a lot of ominous cello music to me, so I know it's not good.Comment
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It's part a fudge on what regulators should do when resolving banks with large amounts of retail bondholders, and part a warning to anyone who sold (or will sell) those bonds that they have to immediately tell retail clients that they could lose all their money. There's also a strong hint to national regulators that they shouldn't let people sell them to retail clients.Comment
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It appears Di Maio is meeting Mattarella tonight, is proposing that Savone remain in government, but that there would be a different Finance Minister.
https://mobile.twitter.com/YanniKout...67750489419777Comment
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Salvini has already walked that back. M5S are flailing and the Lega senses blood in the water.
There’s also zero reason for Mattarella to take that deal.Comment
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There’s no possible coalition without Lega, is there?Comment
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Above everything else, an 81 year old Finance Minister, fuck sake. Italy needs a really really strong flu epidemic if it’s ever going to be ok.Comment
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No coalition, but if Five Star formed a minority government, external support from Forza and Fratelli d'Italia could keep them in power - the Chamber numbers are here:
https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki...es_current.svgComment
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Oh for the days when Lega were racist Bossi scumbags toward anyone south of the Po and not just foreigns. This pan Italian evil is really fucking depressing.Comment
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