Return of the Lira? Italian general election, 2018

[Tubby Isaacs]

Accompanying article by Martin Sandbu.

https://www.ft.com/content/279fe9e8-...1-e01af256df68

Generous title: "Give Italy’s new rulers a chance". He seems so reckon they'll at some point specify some savings, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

[Diable Rouge]

Ferdi Giugliano nails it:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...196698624.html

[Tubby Isaacs]

Paul Krugman has fouled up on this. "Faith in the Euro trumps democracy".

[Diable Rouge]

Cue the Irish Central Bank dusting off plans for An Punt Nua.

[Diable Rouge]

Matthew Goodwin talking piffle about "redemptive" populist forces vs "pragmatic" supernationalism.

[Tubby Isaacs]

How far has he got into the script for ID?

He can't be far off turning up at Saskia Reeves' flat and getting told to fuck off.

[Lang Spoon]

He’s welcoming some bad bastards. March on Rome must be in their back pockets. Both Grillo off stage and just about every fuck in the new All Italian racist cunt Lega cabal must have visions of balcony speeches.

[Lang Spoon]

The Pres and pals as enemies of the people.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

If they manage to tank the value of italian govt bonds, they'll wind up hanging upside down from a lamppost in milan. The South is likely to be hit very hard by any engineered disaster, but the North has an awful lot more to lose.

[Ginger Yellow]

Seems strange to me that this finance minister is the red line and not their (now) stated policies, like the mini-BOTs or, you know, concentration camps for migrants. But Italian constitutional norms are a mystery to me.

[Ginger Yellow]

10-year yield over 3% this morning. Two-year yields have absolutely skyrocketed. Proper hockey-stick graph.

[ursus arctos]

The projections for new elections should the Lega/M5S coalition hold are terrifying



70% of the seats in the lower house, 69% of those in the upper house.

The ten year spread hit 320 bp earlier today, but has since fallen to 260 and change.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I thought this Guardian headline looked a bit optimistic.

'They played us': Italy's political turmoil angers backers of coalition
Leaders of M5S and the League accused of sabotaging their own bid for power

[Diable Rouge]

The projections for new elections should the Lega/M5S coalition hold are terrifying



70% of the seats in the lower house, 69% of those in the upper house.

The ten year spread hit 320 bp earlier today, but has since fallen to 260 and change.

One thing forming a government, but could they agree on a common electoral platform, even if their regional bases conveniently suit such an arrangement?

[N est à?]

I, uh, would not recommend Pd to go into alliance with Forza Italia, if that is what that map key is suggesting

[Diable Rouge]

Cottarelli's rumoured choice for Finance Minister, Guido Tabellini, quoted as saying in 2014 "In the event of a crisis, it would be better to leave the euro than to restructure debt".

[ursus arctos]

Nesta, the theory is of an “anti-populist” coalition vaguely similar to those in the French Presidential elections involving Le Pens. Because of the way seats are assigned, they get even fewer in the simulation if they run separately.

Tabellini’s comment is problematic, but it isn’t in the same league as Savona’s 20 page PowerPoint on the advantages and detailed implementation of “Plan B” over a bank holiday weekend.

DR, that’s the bilion lire question, along with whether the personality clashes will doom a coalition.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Do policies have to be run past the M5 membership?

[Ginger Yellow]

Cottarelli's rumoured choice for Finance Minister, Guido Tabellini, quoted as saying in 2014 "In the event of a crisis, it would be better to leave the euro than to restructure debt".

How do you leave the euro without restructuring debt, unless you want to pay extortionate amounts of money for said debt? Or is he not counting redenomination by legislation as restructuring?

[ursus arctos]

I believe the latter

Tubbs, a coalition agreement would be subject to the same confirmation by on-line vote that I described a few pages ago.

[Tubby Isaacs]

But there's no further voting by members on stuff not in that agreement or "events", or anything like that? That's what I'm getting at. It would be enormously impractical but I thought that this party of geniuses off the internet might have gone down that road.

[ursus arctos]

For the most part, the leadership decides what is put to a vote.

M5S is a lot of things, but it isn't MyFootballTeam.com

[Tubby Isaacs]

That's good news.

[Moonlight Shadow]

The Telegraph are absolutely tumescent about this, not quite understanding their Brexit idiocy inspire only a minority in Italy...

[Lang Spoon]

John Humphreys giggling with delight as well.