The Brexit Thread

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/05/16/standard-life-sets-brexit-wheels-motion-dublin-plans-get-lift/

Standard Life has set the wheels in motion for an EU subsidiary in Dublin, with its chairman noting the business "can't take a chance" on Brexit as its £11bn merger with Aberdeen Asset Management draws nearer.

Sir Gerry Grimstone said the firm is "now working towards" turning its Dublin branch into an EU subsidiary, pressing the firing gun on its contingency plans as it moves forward with the assumption that the UK will lose its passporting rights once it leaves the EU.

Speaking at the company's annual general meeting in Edinburgh, Mr Grimstone said that although he hopes the UK won't lose those rights - as then the company could service its 500,000 customers in Ireland, Germany and Austria as it does now - "we can’t take a chance on whether the negotiations will produce such an outcome".

[Toby Gymshorts]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Taking are cuntry bak.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

And handing it over to Belgian regional parliaments and "eccentric" WTO members.

[Lang Spoon]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Just means more Bastards trying to stop us Thriving, Theresa won't take that kind of talk lying down, don't you worry. Meanwhile health rationing will mean 1 GP visit a year, and your kids will be looking at farm hand or streetwalking for hard currency as their most likely career options.

[Pérou Flaquettes]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Tubby Isaacs wrote: BMW make the obvious hint- that car production might be moved out of Cowley with hard Brexit.

http://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/15283741.BMW_boss_hints_at_moving_Mini_production_ out_of_Oxford/

The Brexit Brains trust in full effect BTL.

Yep, another big iconic company ready to bugger off, Brexit really is the poisoned gif that keeps on giving, isn’t it?

The catastrofuck hasn’t even started yet, many other companies will soon be heading towards the exit door or will have to be heavily bribed to stay in the UK. Just in my (Newcastle) area, I know of 4 sizeable companies that are (fully or partly) leaving or have folded as a direct or indirect consequence of Brexit, representing nearly 1,000 jobs altogether (US beauty products company Coty, Hobart Hose furniture business, Nestlé and another one that someone told me about but whose name escapes me) even if they don’t always blame Brexit for their decision (for political reasons, they don’t particularly want to be seen as meddling into domestic politics or into other countries’ affairs if they’re foreign).
There’s also of course a huge question mark hanging like a Sword of Damocles over Hitachi and Nissan here in the North East (Nissan: 7,000 direct jobs, and a further 30-40,000 indirect ones in the British supply chain) and myriad smaller other ones no doubt. I can’t see the automotive industry staying if we don’t get to stay in the Customs Union, it would quickly become far too onerous and costly for them in terms of paperwork, tariffs and parts (60-70% of the parts in an average British-assembled car are made abroad).
More than 100,000 people in the North-East are employed in industries which rely on trade with the continent. Fifty-eight per cent of the North-East’s trade is with the EU, well above the national average.

“Project Fear” the ignoramuses like(d) to brag, yeah right… I had the misfortune to talk to another Brexiter a few days ago, Jesus Christ, the egregious ignorance & arrogance of these people seem to know no bounds, so many of them look down at the rest of Europe, often they haven't even set foot on continental Europe save for the odd holiday on the Costas (I know I know, British exceptionalism and all that, but this goes beyond the usual tropes of the genre I feel, a worrying number of them seem to think continental Europeans – save for the Germans – have shit economies, have been turned into serfs of Brussels & Berlin and produce sub-standard stuff, but thank God for us Brits and the fantastic quality of stuff produced in the UK! Such as this poor deluded Nissan worker... Ffs these dimwits really need to get in their car, drive to the continent, stay there for a week or two, talk to a few people there and open their fucking eyes; even just getting out of their county occasionally would do them a world of good).

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

That's the thing. Haven't the Brexiteers noticed their foreign holiday went up last year? I spent 3 nights in Athens last year, and noticed I was getting stung by the rate.

Yeah, there's a ludicrous sense that it's all about to fall down in the EU. They can't afford to do without our £8bn a year, between 27 of them. Germany is doing well, but they're bossy so we're well out of it. Some people have, to their credit, worked out we'll be worse off but say "other stuff" is more important. They then tell you Germany will do us a deal because it's all about the money, innit?

[San Bernardhinault]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Yes. That definitely exists. Even I'm getting it - "Oh, after Greece and the Germans being so mean to Greece but Greeks not paying their taxes, and the Italians not paying theirs and the Portuguese not getting their economy under control and the Germans will have had enough of bailing out these people, it's all going to collapse, look at AfD with their 5% of the vote, the Germans are going to get out while the Euro-economy crashes into a heap, and Britain'll be happy to be out in front of it with our individually negotiated trade deals with Vietnam and Fiji and Angola making up the gap..."

[Moonlight Shadow]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

I do trouble those kind of idiots, no fucking way some tool on the minimum wage in St-Helens can look at me with a straight face and tell me Europe is sinking when I tell them where I'm a from....

I see the NE is going to be an interesting area to observe after Brexit....

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Where are the Brexit politicians telling us how we're going to be better off? Old IDS is the only one putting in a shift.

[loose cannon]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Short piece highlighting the complexity of Brexit and how May is not qualified to handle it due to her impulsion to micro manage. However due to the scale of the task, micro management will be impossible.
The optimal scenario being an interim agreement and the final agreement will run on for years.

http://www.feasta.org/2017/05/10/brexit-and-complexity/

[Moonlight Shadow]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Pre-referendum, the only Leave group who had a coherent plan and really did think about it was Liberal Leave (lots were from the ASI...). They called for an interim period in the EEA lasting 20 years, giving ample time to put everything in place for complete independence.

Sadly, UKIP Leave won....

[Diable Rouge]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

So, 51% of voters in the North want a Border poll before Brexit even gets started - I'm sure Arlene will make a great Tánaiste ...

[Pérou Flaquettes]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Ah, great, I’ve just found where I’ll be taking my French passport (photo below) when this country goes down the pan post-Brexit and doesn’t want me and my fellow EU nationals here anymore, the Home Office doesn’t seem too keen on us “EU migrants” these days if you don’t tick all their silly boxes in their 85-page long application form… Rejection of EU citizens seeking UK residency hits 28%

[a ridiculous-long and onerous form clearly designed to fail applicants (long, onerous + shitloads of paperwork to provide going back years - not always easy documentation to get retrospectively, + apparently you need to provide the exact dates of when you left the country even for a hol, etc.), what with their obscure requirements, like having bought a Comprehensive Sickness Insurance policy for some categories of people, something that apparently was added on the sly a few years ago and a policy that no-one took of course because no-one knew about it, I even read on an immigration board that some did take it - newcomers mainly, PHD students etc. as advised by their university - but were told by the Home Office or someone else that they took the wrong type of policy - a bit like the wrong type of snow of leaves, but nowhere near as funny... - and their application was rejected or were advised by an immigration lawyer not to apply for the time being. And I've found out that it now costs nearly £2,000 to get UK citizenship! (all in), yep 2 fucking grand, with the Home Office getting to keep the £1,236 fee if you make a mistake on the application form and they reject your application - 1/3 are rejected apparently -, an absolute disgrace, you can’t even communicate with the Home Office from what I’ve heard from people who've had serious issues with the Home Office. And to make matter worse, Treeza May has cut off the marriage route to UK naturalisation in 2012, when she was Home Secretary, it no longer gives you any advantage. And you have to apply for residency now before applying for naturalisation! I'll get off my soapbox now, rant over].

So, I’ll be following with great interest the development of this Franco-American project, this is where I might end up folks, exciting stuff:



Maybe we can all meet up there one day! (let’s club together and buy a disused oil tanker, do it up and moor it off a pier there).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTcr--Z8460

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cimraA16BRw

https://www.seasteading.org/floating-city-project/

[Pérou Flaquettes]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

I’ve just thought of an alternative if I can’t live on that floating island: I’ll move back to France and set up an Anti Brexit commune exclusively for OFT Brexit refugees (preferably British citizens who do not own a property as they’ll have nowhere to go).

My plan would be to set aside approx. 300K to buy a large property with a minimum of, say, 12 bedroom + annexes/outbuildings if poss, somewhere cheap and cheerful (central Brittany, Poitou-Limousin, Auvergne etc. and other back of beyond areas such as the remote Lozère) I think that’s feasible in those areas.

I would just charge a peppercorn rent, and you would pay me back by regaling me with tales of British football, original or boring, doesn't matter, I love boring tales too.

Said property would be in the back of beyond so no decent professional football clubs and proper cities within 200 miles, plenty of Front National voters around no doubt (la France profonde), probably very dodgy mobile phone signals etc. We’d also have to build our own wells (common in rural France) and forage for food but it’s not as bad as it sounds (I’d get a hunting licence, plenty of game and wild boars in the thick woodlands of central France). I probably couldn’t get any means-tested welfare benefits and you lot would be clandestine so we’d have to make do with a frugal lifestyle and no income, just your savings – that said, plenty of opportunities for govie jobs – DIY, gardening, dog-sitting for old folks etc.

[Pérou Flaquettes]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

After a quick Google, I’ve found these babies (I quite like the look of the first one to establish our commune):

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/overseas-property/property-58025705.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/overseas-property/property-58016951.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/overseas-property/property-61359509.html

https://www.french-property.com/vp/nv/ds/poitou-charentes-deux-s%C3%A8vres-chef-boutonne-house/id/612826/

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/overseas-property/property-48004161.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/overseas-property/property-57971428.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/overseas-property/property-63245585.html

https://www.prestigeproperty.co.uk/10-bed-french-chateau-chenerailles-creuse-limousin-france-172528

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/overseas-property/property-43827516.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/overseas-property/property-58031213.html

[anton pulisov]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

you might want to check the green acres website as well

[anton pulisov]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

hmmm... interior design doesn't appear to be a French strong suite...

[Ginger Yellow]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Barnier's directives.

[Duncan Gardner]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Quick question for the panel. Is it plausible (as local Wolverhampton Tory candidate Paul Uppal has just claimed in a hustings), that the take from corporation tax has risen from 43bn to about 50bn in recent years- while the rate charged has fallen from 28% to 20%?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

The economy presumably has improved in that time, DG?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

And if the first year is 2010, then there are probably corporate tax losses being brought forward from the crash.

[Duncan Gardner]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Thanks Tubbs. Let me put it another way

43bn @ 28%: profits = ca 150bn
50bn @ 20%: profits = ca 250bn

Have taxable profits really risen by 65- 70%?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

I don't know.

You could say higher corporate profits reflect less money being spent on wages or something. Are you in the audience?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

The profits have rising by about 30%, if I understand it correctly.

I think there must have been some tax losses being brought forward in 2010.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

And of course Hard Brexit is expected to cut profits.