Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

[Lang Spoon]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

PBP in Castle Greyskull. Fucking hell I'm impressed.

[Calvert]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

Claire, Gerry and Eamon should liven things up a bit. We need more rejection of the tired old Prod/Taig/Unionist/Nationslist bullshit from the electorate.

Good news indeed.

[Duncan Gardner]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

Hear hear. Fair play to the Tory lad in Derry, a whopping 36 votes

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

I'm amused to see Sinn Fein getting a dose of their own medicine. They were hammering the labour party down south effectively because they weren't in control of the amount they could spend on social welfare, and now it's happened to them in west belfast and Derry, because ultimately it's George Osborne that is control of their welfare spending.

The nordies could elect only PBP representatives, and they would still have had to cut the social welfare budget.

[Duncan Gardner]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

The Awesome Berbaslug!!! wrote:
The nordies could elect only PBP representatives, and they would still have had to cut the social welfare budget

Really? Surely you (or at least Granny Berba) remember when the South elected an almost entirely one-party slate, in 1918. Didn't they go to war a couple of times rather than just gurning about welfare payments?

As Calvert suggestss, the changes at the margins in Stormont will help sensible debate for all, even if the Shinners stay in joint control with Arlene's mob.

[DCI Harry Batt]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

Well indeed, DG. The idea that an elected representative has to be "sensible" and "credible" is...sad.

[Duncan Gardner]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

There are many Unionist and Nationalist hacks in NI who are hard-working, shrewd and yes even sometimes sensible

Replacing even three or four of them with people whose main interest isn't nationalism or unionism will benefit all round, I think.

[Diable Rouge]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

After 99 seats:

DUP 37
SF 22
UUP 15
SDLP 11
Alliance 8
Green 2
PBP 2
TUV 1
Independent Unionist 1

As DG says, having at least 12 others in Stormont can only raise debate levels and variety, especially if the speculation that the UUP and SDLP will go into opposition if confirmed.

[Duncan Gardner]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

And after 105 (three to go)

Unionists 55
Nationalists 38
Others 12 (+3)

Good result for Foster, PBP and Greens, and the younger SF leadership in the South who want to move on the ex-IRA prisoner generation.

Treading water for Alliance and UUP. David Ford will probably retire soon, Anchorman Nesbitt would be best in opposition as DR suggests.

Disappointment for the SDLP (although less so than I predicted) and Squeaky Jim Allister's Trad Voice. Ditto the UVF party and UKIP.

Edit final prediction 56 (-), 40 (-3), 12 (+3).

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

Really? Surely you (or at least Granny Berba) remember when the South elected an almost entirely one-party slate, in 1918. Didn't they go to war a couple of times rather than just gurning about welfare payments?

Perhaps, but even if the entirety of the Northern Ireland electorate decided to go with the PBP, it still wouldn't change the uncomfortable fact that the money has to come from somewhere, and George Osborne controls that money.

perhaps if everyone chipped in and got together, they could blow up the erotic gherkin, and things could go back to how they were before.

[Duncan Gardner]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

Berba, I take yer broad point but isn't it really about major structural faults in the British economy? Of which NI is and will likely remain a relatively isolated and poor backwater. On the recent 1916 commems thread, you riffed repeatedly about wrong decisions taken then, and how we'd be destitute were we not in Britain. Alas no-one has a time machine and only a declining minority in Fermanagh and Tyrone, let alone Dublin wants any change to the border.

Gerry Carroll and Clare Bailey aren't expecting to overthrow capitalism and send Ozzy back to his wallpaper millions instantly. However if they can encourage sensible discussion on housing and education and persuade a few Unionists and Nationalists to allow marriage equality and access to abortion (which is realistic), then I'll be pleased. Baby steps, pun coincidental.

On a related theme, I heard the Financial Times bureau head in North America suggest on the BBC that if Brexit happens much of Canary Wharf will flit to the Point and Rogerson's Quay. You'd better get the Water funding sorted pronto, we don't want all those bankers swimming in their own sewage...

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

Gerry Carroll and Clare Bailey aren't expecting to overthrow capitalism and send Ozzy back to his wallpaper millions instantly. However if they can encourage sensible discussion on housing and education and persuade a few Unionists and Nationalists to allow marriage equality and access to abortion (which is realistic), then I'll be pleased. Baby steps, pun coincidental.


perhaps there will be these positive outcomes that you would like. But that's not really why these people were elected. They were essentially elected because Sinn fein were unable to prevent the welfare cuts, even though it's difficult to imagine them doing any more.

It's not really so much that the North is dependent on George Osborne's whims so much, as that because they are in government after a fashion, Sinn Fein have to face the horrible reality of making decisions within a budget, rather than just saying whatever it is that people want to hear, like down South.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

Is there any opposition to the Corporation Tax cuts and attacks on Sinn Fein from the left over them? I'd be surprised if there weren't, though I think SF are right.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

On a related theme, I heard the Financial Times bureau head in North America suggest on the BBC that if Brexit happens much of Canary Wharf will flit to the Point and Rogerson's Quay. You'd better get the Water funding sorted pronto, we don't want all those bankers swimming in their own sewage...

Here's an interesting question. Lets take as a starting point that virtually everyone in the north is a practical unionist, on fairly reasonable economic grounds. but what if that changes.

What if britain leaves the european union, a reasonable chunk falls off the city of london, sending a relatively stagnant economy into a negative growth spiral, turning your terrible budget position into a nightmare.

The north is uniquely dependent on the british state for income, and employment, meaning that they will be hit particularly hard.

It wouldn't take a particularly large proportion of the city of london to move to dublin to start quite a large boom down here.

At what level of Osborne inspired immiseration, outside the European Union would large numbers of northern protestants become practical nationalists?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

Disco Child Ballads wrote: Just been looking at the lists of candidates for the NI elections. There really is a bewildering number of parties isn't there?

There's a bewildering number of seats in the assembly.

[Duncan Gardner]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

@Berba- when granny grows a new set of testicles. There are too many 'ifs' in your imagined future. Just to take one you haven't mentioned- do you think a Southern state and public opinion that hasn't let the border move a metric mile (or even inch) away from Puckoon in 90 years is going to welcome a 40% population increase?

You're half right about the new 'centrist' MLAs. PBP is voted for almost entirely by ex-Nationalists, the Green base is in an area where
Nationalists can't rise a deposit. And Bailey is in largely on the strength of her work on abortion and marriage issues.

@Tubby & Disco- the Greens and PBP oppose cutting corporation taxes. I understand (Berba can confirm) that many firms in the South pay effectively zero.

The Assembly is due to shrink to 96 members (16 x 6) after the current term. Six seats per constituency is deliberately designed to increase the likelihood of non-nationality based parties getting elected.

Birmingham City Council remains the largest local authority in Britain.

[GCostanza]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

Why would anyone want to move the relative 'border'?

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

There's not that many ifs to be honest. The big one is leaving the EU, the rest kind of follows from that.

The issue here really is that the Northern Ireland situation, with it's farcical identity politics can only exist in a very fragile bubble, created exclusively by central government largess. Almost 2/3rds of you GDP and income has its basis in central government transfers. Now that you're no longer a security hot spot, you can be treated as an economic shit pit like Teeside or wales, full of poor people who don't vote tory.

You can be cut too. And government spending cuts in Northern Ireland are going to be felt far more keenly than anywhere else, given that a small cut would have a notable impact on your economy.

Essentially, Northern Ireland's stupid, horrible political system is only possible because it exists in an entirely artificial bubble, kept inflated by large transfers of cash from london. What if that comes under real pressure? What happens when london decides that it no longer needs to buy peace?

Northern Ireland is an awful long way behind the south in terms of economic development, what if the north starts to go backwards, while the south hurtles along?

[Diable Rouge]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

The UUP have officially gone into opposition, no SDLP announcement yet.

[Duncan Gardner]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

@Diable- I think the SDLP may follow the UUP. Admittedly my prediction that they'd do particularly badly Belfast turned out wrong, with a couple of MLAs hanging on with Unionist transfers

@Berba- yes, it's possible that in turn

- Britain may soon vote to leave the EU

- public spending cuts (incl in NI) become much more savage

- relatively peaceful civil society collapses

- the widespread response is 'yes, let's join up with the South, in all its post-religious economically vibrant euphoria, of course entirely unaffected by the violence here'

Possible, but not very likely. The South doesn't want to take real responsibility for any of NI, let alone a 40% population increase. Nor indeed the poverty-stricken hordes from Swansea and Middlesbrough, and all those Canary Wharf bankers looking for a home

[Calvert]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

Anchorman Nesbitt is such a wanker, man.

The Stoop Down Low Party's election posters are still offending my eyes daily.

They're all cunts, each and every single party, and each and every single member of every party.

Hope they all die in a Stormont fire.

[Duncan Gardner]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

Have a cookie, babes. Yer inner anarchist gets out of hand when yer hungry

Talking of Dai 'n' Offiah, whatever happened to our resident rugby-loving sailors? Last seen getting jiggy with a pushbike, like in a Flann O'Brien story or similar.

[Calvert]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

Haha
Yes, maybe a bit harsh on reflection.

I'll exempt Gerry Carroll, Eamo McCann and our Green Party comrades from a fiery death.
The rest can fucking burn, though.

It says a lot about the morons in my country that they regularly return the likes of Sinn Fein and the Free Presbytalibans as the biggest parties.

[Diable Rouge]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

The SDLP follow the UUP into opposition - normal politics begins?

[Duncan Gardner]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

Problem for the SDLP (and even more so UUP) in 'opposition' is the pressure for no-contest deals with SF/ DUP against their supposed partners.

In reality, the Green/ PBP bloc (up from one to four) will be the real oppo on social policy, trad jazzman Jim Allister on procedure. Might be interesting how Alliance join in.

Anyways, we have a dysfunctioning Executive Politburo. (Chris) Huzzah!



Edit Messrs Tubby and Diable may be encouraged that I slightly understated the politician cull planned for the next NI election. We're dropping from 108 hacks (6 in each of 18 constituencies) to 85 (5 x 17).