Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

[Diable Rouge]

So, the lustral headcount begins anew, with Mike Nesbitt's revitalised UUP threatening to shorten Arlene Foster's reign as First Minister. With no tactical pacts, as in 2015, the UUP's progress will be less marked, but with the DUP only nine seats ahead of SF in 2011, the clear Unionist message will be to not split the vote, thereby leaving McGuinness in. The SDLP have elected Calum Eastwood as their new leader, but two Tyrone candidates have gone independent, which seems an ominous portent for their battle against SF. That party's biggest worry is abstention, with nationalist voters eschewing the ballot box in ever-growing numbers in the last five years.

As for others, the Alliance have steadily grown since Naomi Long's success in West Belfast, but "Fleg-gate" could result in losses, the Greens will be hopeful of a second seat in East Belfast, PBP aim for West Belfast success with Gerry Carroll, and the Cross-Community Labour Alliance is standing three Corbynite teenagers in East Belfast, South Belfast and East Antrim.

[Duncan Gardner]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

I think DUP will hold off SF quite comfortably. Of course everyone accepts that Arlene and Marty are joint head honchos in all but name.

Unionism has featured a large number of micro-parties for decades. The justification is that it offers something for everyone and thus boosts the overall Unionist vote.

A problem for Arlene is that she has been saying 'the Union is secure' basically since 1998, so now claiming the opposite is a bit silly.

Mike Nesbitt Anchorman might get some extra seats but no chance of pushing the big two.

One of my Green colleagues tweeted the other day that the Alliance and SDLP (and DUP obviously) are now to the right of Donald Trump on the criminalising women for having abortions issue.

Greens are challenging in South Belfast as well.

I admire the Teenage Corbynistas' commitment.

[Diable Rouge]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

Two veterans who've been through more elections than Screaming Lord Sutch re-emerge from hibernation - Eamon McCann is running for People Before Profit this time, and the same party has the dubious endorsement of Bernadette McAliskey née Devlin.

[Calvert]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

Meanwhile, local Horrible Bastard from national Horrible Bastards Party opens his vile xenophobic trap yet again and more garbage falls out.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2...nces-says-ukip

[Tubby Isaacs]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

Is there room for UKIP in NI? Then again the Welsh Tories are basically UKIP but seems to be room for real UKIP too.

[Diable Rouge]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

A UUP Assemblyman defected to them during the term, but wouldn't think so, given DUP have the bigoted eurosceptic vote taken care of.

[Duncan Gardner]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

Aye, almost any Unionist politician could find a home in UKIP- but they still managed 10% in East Antrim last year.

Good riddance to McNarky.

[GCostanza]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

Makes you wonder why they bother wasting their time and effort when the more extreme unionists do their job for them.

[Duncan Gardner]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

Candidates for the 108 seats in 18 constituencies::

DUP 44
SF 39
UUP 33
SDLP 24
APNI 23
Green 18
TUV 15
UKIP 13
Tory 12
Others 55

27% are women

[Diable Rouge]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

Can one island manage three parties all calling themselves "Social Democrats"?

[Duncan Gardner]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

I think the Mainstream SDLP Loyalists will do well In Puckoon West. Unless of course there's another split and some of them merge with the Joint Churches Against Ecumenism or that woman whose manifesto is the Book of Deuteronomy.

Meanwhile, back on Planet Earth here's a scoreboard from the last three contests. Note that in Stormont STV elections non-Nationalist or -Unionist parties tend to do rather better than at Westminster, basically because their votes usually transfer and so aren't seen as wasted.

[Disco Child Ballads]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

Are there local elections happening at the same time?

[Duncan Gardner]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

No, the Councils (like Stormont) are elected 'all out'- so last in 2014, next 2018.

[Diable Rouge]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

Watching the BBC debate for my sins, pity the kids aren't running - far greater intelligence on display in the audience!

[Duncan Gardner]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

My favorite exchange:

Pro-lifer: Abortion is murder- a foetus has human DNA!

Pro-choicer: So does a banana.

The format had promise, but spoilt a bit as DR suggests- mainly because as usual, there was far too much of Nolan screaming 'look at me'. Example:

Education campaigner: Can I ask the Unionist polticians- why are they biased against Irish-language medium schools?

UniPols: Actually, we aren't because...

Nolan: Well that's enough of that, we've plenty more of my gut to fit in!

(The Unionists would presumably have said that schools planned for less than 20 pupils are sustainable if at all only in the Special sector.)

Anyway, watch the scoreboard of evidence of new politics- ie, the main dividing line on many issues being social conservatism/ liberalism (or age, basically) rather than nationalty...

[Diable Rouge]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

Pretty much as you were, then.

[Disco Child Ballads]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

Just been looking at the lists of candidates for the NI elections. There really is a bewildering number of parties isn't there?

[Diable Rouge]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

Disco Child Ballads wrote: Just been looking at the lists of candidates for the NI elections. There really is a bewildering number of parties isn't there?

And that's just the home-grown and some GB parties - if more Southern parties other than the Greens and PBP had entered, you could add at least five more to the list.

[Diable Rouge]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

The Belfast Telegraph provide a profiler quiz, but queer the pitch by asking you to pick a party.

[Diable Rouge]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

Seems Eamon McCann's tallies are good in Foyle, but that's as traditional as his usual "narrow misses".

[Duncan Gardner]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

Disco Child Ballads wrote: Just been looking at the lists of candidates for the NI elections. There really is a bewildering number of parties isn't there?

Diable Rouge wrote: And that's just the home-grown and some GB parties - if more Southern parties other than the Greens and PBP had entered, you could add at least five more to the list

A large number of small parties is explained more by the STV electoral system than any peculiarity of NI (not that the latter isn't present of course ).

Don't be too surprised. When England is given some proportionality (as in the 2014 Euros) the small fry will stand, even if their votes don't transfer as at Stormont.

I dont think you can really call the NI Greens a Southern party that's spread North any longer- relations with Scotland and England & Wales are now closer than they were four or five years ago, and the Dublin Greens experience in coalition didn't help.

[Diable Rouge]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

Looks like you're going to pick up a seat in South Belfast.

[Duncan Gardner]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

Aye, Claire Bailey's high profile on abortion and marriage issues is noticeable.

[Diable Rouge]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

Gerry Carroll (PBP) tops poll, elected on first count.

[E10 Rifle]

Those dreary steeples - Stormont elections, 2016

Looks like my former fellow NUJ National Executive malcontent Eamonn McCann is headed for Stormont. Good for him.