Storm in a tea cup: The weather thread

[Moonlight Shadow]

Atmospheric river apparently

[Nocturnal Submission]

Wow - the Met Office are forecasting 22C for the London area on Thursday. Not bad for late-October.

[Satchmo Distel]

Is that a record?

[Janik]

I get what you mean... but, of course, however pleasant the actual day might be in a more general context it's a bad thing. As it is indicative of the same underlying issues as yesterday's absurd thunderstorm.

[Nocturnal Submission]

I get what you mean... but, of course, however pleasant the actual day might be in a more general context it's a bad thing. As it is indicative of the same underlying issues as yesterday's absurd thunderstorm.

Yes, I agree with you on the general principle, but warm days in late-Octobers have probably happened in the past too, so on its own it's not necessarily indicative of climate change, or emblematic perhaps. It's not a fortnight in the mid-20s in December. Consequently I think we can probably enjoy it relatively guiltlessly.

[Antepli Ejderha]

Wow - the Met Office are forecasting 22C for the London area on Thursday. Not bad for late-October.

It was 22 or 23 yesterday in our part of London.

[Nocturnal Submission]

It was 22 or 23 yesterday in our part of London.

Yup, 22.9C at Kew, if memory serves.

[BallochSonsFan]

Been mid 20s during the day since Tuesday here in Mannheim. Packed for an extended break - shirts for day time and hoodies for the hockey - and I could have stuck with jeans and T Shirts all the time. Far too warm for the last week of October.

[Amor de Cosmos]

We've got one of them there atmospheric rivers again too. It's eased up a bit now, but along with 70k/mh winds it made for thrilling beach walks this morning. Lots of loony kite-surfers out in the bay of course.

[Discordant Resonance]

The Irish winter has certainly arrived, not cold yet, but incessant rain all week so far, and accompanied by squalls today.

[Sporting]

12° C isn't cold?!

[ad hoc]

12° C isn't cold?!

In November? No.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

It can be that temperature in summer

The good news is that it's stripping the last of the leafs off the trees, so I can soon stop sweeping them up.

[ad hoc]

It can be that temperature in summer

Yeah, but in summer it is cold

[Discordant Resonance]

Everything's relative, of course, but there's still humidity in the air, and grass growth hasn't stopped yet.

[Moonlight Shadow]

Keeping an interested eye on long range developments in the weather. The Met caused a bit of a stir with their forecast for contingency planners earlier this week, the period Nov-Jan more likely to be cold and dry than mild and wet according to them...

[scratchmonkey]

Weather does a lovely job keeping things in context. 12C is definitely not cold in November in Romania, it probably is in Spain, and also it's the temperature where I am, which I would describe as "a bit of a chilly morning" when it would be quite balmy where my mother lives in south Minnesota.

We've gotten the first of the fall/winter rains here, thankfully waiting until all except the most ardent partiers were in bed Halloween night, with scattered showers continuously over the next week or so. I've quite been enjoying it, the two dogs less so.

[Nocturnal Submission]

I keep telling myself that because all these downpours are necessary to replenish the reservoirs and aquifers, I'm happy to see them, but could we now have a couple of dry days please.

Last night's news report said something about parts of Kent and Sussex having had twice their average November rainfall before we were even a week into the month.

[DCI Harry Batt]

Is it more raining than usual in November so far this year? Or does it just seem a lot?

[Satchmo Distel]

The east coast of FL is due to get a lot of rain on Wednesday into Thursday

[Janik]

Is it more raining than usual in November so far this year? Or does it just seem a lot?

At least locally to me, it's been a very wet start to the month - 6 days out of 7 so far with >1mm of rain (what the website I follow classes as rain days) and 40.4mm in total. The website's records go back to 2010 - the amount of rain that has fallen so far in November is more than in the entire month in 2010, '11, '17, '18, '20 and '21. 2014 was the wettest November - 87.0mm fell. And 2015 had the most rainy days - 17/30. This month is on course to break all those records... unless we get a dry spell coming up. Which we might.

October also felt extremely wet... but the stats don't fully back that one up. In that case it is context - rather than days with drizzle or steady rain that is annoying but possible to be out and about in with a good coat, we are got torrential downpours* and then dry spells. The total amount that fell was pretty par for locally - it was above average, 79.6mm compared to 56.0mm over the past 12 years, but just within the standard deviation of that (which was ± 24.8mm). And in terms or rain days, it only had 13 out of 31, which ranks 2022 joint fourth (again above average, but within (in this case well within) the standard deviation: 11.4 ± 4.4 rain days per October). But calculate rain per rain day and that then 2022 sits 2nd of 13 in October terms - only 2018, when 45.2mm fell in just 6 days (7.53mm per rainy day compared to this October's 6.12),** had heavier rain... when it fell... which it did rather less often.

* - more rain came down here on 20th October than fell in the entire of all the previous months of the year, baring February.

** - and this is why November '22 seems bang on course to being a record break: not only have we had an usually high proportion of rainy days so far, but the amount that has fallen on them has also been unusually high - on average 6.7mm... and that is an slight undercount as today isn't over yet and more could still drop.

[Janik]

To summarise, yes, November has been notably wet so far. Not only has it been raining more often than normal, when it does it has also been heavier than usual. Bad combo.

[DCI Harry Batt]

Thank you, that's very comprehensive.

[San Bernardhinault]

The east coast of FL is due to get a lot of rain on Wednesday into Thursday

I hope it's not too much. My wife has an old friend from high school whose house - on the eastern side of the state - has only just had the waters recede from Ian. It took until last week until FEMA were willing to go in and do the insurance inspections because they refused to go in when it was underwater and full of alligators. I don't understand why or how the water took so long to recede, but apparently it rose for a week after the storm had passed. Which means that you'd be worried that any extra rainfall would just bring all the same problems back again.

[Moonlight Shadow]

Can't say there is much in term of settled weather on the horizon for our little island and the mild theme is set to continue, the gigantic high covering Europe does not want to budge...