The 2015 UK General Election thread

[Tubby Isaacs]

The 2015 UK General Election thread

Antonio Pulisao wrote:

They've been helped immeasurably by the shitness of the left, making the choice less than 'your interests served' vs 'your interests shafted' as 'your interests shafted quickly' vs 'your interests shafted slowly'. Faced with such a choice, it's no surprise to find people voting for the party that reflects their cultural animus, since the pocket-book vote was taken off the table some decades back.

The genius of the right though is that they have moved the centre to the right, meaning that the only way Labour can get elected is by being New Labour.

It's the same everywhere.

I think they could easily have won this time, and one more heave with a different leader and some better shadows they'll win.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The 2015 UK General Election thread

NHH wrote: They've been helped immeasurably by the shitness of the left, making the choice less than 'your interests served' vs 'your interests shafted' as 'your interests shafted quickly' vs 'your interests shafted slowly'. Faced with such a choice, it's no surprise to find people voting for the party that reflects their cultural animus, since the pocket-book vote was taken off the table some decades back.

Who's "you"? Did Mrs Thatcher, for instance, shaft "your" interests? John Major? Blair?

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/household-income/middle-income-households/1977---2011-12/sty-middle-income-households.html

Median equivalised disposable household income more than doubled between 1977 and 2011/12, after accounting for inflation and changes in household composition.

(1977 is where the figures start, it's not me trying to pull some "since the dinosaur age" stroke)

I don't know how that compares to other countries at the same time. But it sounds to me like enough people have been doing reasonably well. That's hard to shift.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The 2015 UK General Election thread

Antonio Pulisao wrote: Exactly. It's about time the population were reminded what exactly they owe to the old Left: max 40 hour working week, minimum wage, paid vacation, free and compulsory education for all children up to the age of 16, banning of child labour, a free universal health care system.

Bloody Romans.

It's about time Labour remembered as well.

The school leaving age was raised to 16 by the Heath Government. This Cameron government will raise it again, to 18.

Wasn't that more likely businessmen wanting a more educated workforce than pressure from the old left?

The New Labour "left" have achievements too, it's fair to say. All the health and education spending in particular, which Gove and Hunt have found it hard to shift too far away from.

[Patrick Thistle]

The 2015 UK General Election thread

Mumpo wrote:

The genius of right wing propaganda since the Reagan/Thatcher years is in getting people like him to vote against their own interests

This, thought it speaks broadly, is closer than anything to nailing the reason for ostensibly perplexing Tory victories.

Aneurin Bevan said this in 'In Place of Fear'. Basically the Tories trick people into voting against their real own interests.

[anton pulisov]

The 2015 UK General Election thread

Tubby Isaacs wrote:

They've been helped immeasurably by the shitness of the left, making the choice less than 'your interests served' vs 'your interests shafted' as 'your interests shafted quickly' vs 'your interests shafted slowly'. Faced with such a choice, it's no surprise to find people voting for the party that reflects their cultural animus, since the pocket-book vote was taken off the table some decades back.

The genius of the right though is that they have moved the centre to the right, meaning that the only way Labour can get elected is by being New Labour.

It's the same everywhere.

It is. Nixon, for example, is a raving New Deal socialist compared to today's Democrats.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The 2015 UK General Election thread

Antonio Pulisao wrote:

They've been helped immeasurably by the shitness of the left, making the choice less than 'your interests served' vs 'your interests shafted' as 'your interests shafted quickly' vs 'your interests shafted slowly'. Faced with such a choice, it's no surprise to find people voting for the party that reflects their cultural animus, since the pocket-book vote was taken off the table some decades back.

The genius of the right though is that they have moved the centre to the right, meaning that the only way Labour can get elected is by being New Labour.

It's the same everywhere.

It is. Nixon, for example, is a raving New Deal socialist compared to today's Democrats.

I blame the demographics.

Might or might not be true, but there's a "book to read on the tube" in this. "Why Demographics Explains Everything" or "Demographonics" "Freakographics" or "The Demography We're In".

[ursus arctos]

The 2015 UK General Election thread

It's not really demographics.

If you want a book, this is a good place to start.

What's the Matter with Kansas? unravels the great political mystery of our day: Why do so many Americans vote against their economic and social interests? With his acclaimed wit and acuity, Thomas Frank answers the riddle by examining his home state, Kansas-a place once famous for its radicalism that now ranks among the nation's most eager participants in the culture wars. Charting what he calls the "thirty-year backlash"-the popular revolt against a supposedly liberal establishment-Frank reveals how conservatism, once a marker of class privilege, became the creed of millions of ordinary Americans.

A brilliant analysis-and funny to boot-What's the Matter with Kansas? is a vivid portrait of an upside-down world where blue-collar patriots recite the Pledge while they strangle their life chances; where small farmers cast their votes for a Wall Street order that will eventually push them off their land; and where a group of frat boys, lawyers, and CEOs has managed to convince the country that it speaks on behalf of the People.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The 2015 UK General Election thread

Yeah but doesn't mean there isn't and a book in it for me.

I read some of the Kansas book. I can remember the stuff about the old rural socialist newspapers.

I don't know if you were talking about Britain or America there, but isn't America's population a fair bit younger than ours and most of Europe's?

[MsD]

The 2015 UK General Election thread

Tubby Isaacs wrote:
I blame the demographics.

Might or might not be true, but there's a "book to read on the tube" in this. "Why Demographics Explains Everything" or "Demographonics" "Freakographics" or "The Demography We're In".

Demongraphics?

[ursus arctos]

The 2015 UK General Election thread

I'm not sure the voting populations are really that different, though the US generally does a better job of collecting that kind of data than the UK does.

In both cases, the voting population is skewed significantly older than the general population, and the dominant dynamic is instilling in that population a fear that their stuff is at risk if they vote for anyone other than reactionaries.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The 2015 UK General Election thread

Is the perceived success of Texas having any effect on other states, Ursus?

I was pretty shocked when I went there to see middle class 50 year olds flipping burgers at a Sunday night concert. But the "Texas miracle" seems to have a bit of traction.

[ursus arctos]

The 2015 UK General Election thread

The latest "Texas Miracle" (the immediately preceding one having been grounded in massive standarised testing) has been pretty thoroughly debunked, and looks even worse now that oil prices have tanked.

Here's a brief precis.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The 2015 UK General Election thread

Thanks for that, I'll read it. I knew it was bollocks before I went there and seeing those burger flippers confirmed it.

Is it perceived as debunked though? The brilliant economic performance of Osborne is debunked but not perceived as such.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The 2015 UK General Election thread

Good article. One thing my "Texan" brother might say is that Texas used to go to absolute shit when the oil price was low. That doesn't seem to be happening now.

[ursus arctos]

The 2015 UK General Election thread

[Tubby Isaacs]

The 2015 UK General Election thread

Question for the Greens.

What do you make of the Cambridge result? Bennett went up their in the campaign, but vote share barely up on 2010. Not just the students but lots of science and high tech business round there. Are lots of them still seeing the Greens as anti-science?

By contrast, the Oxford East result was good for the Greens. Third place, with a much improved 11.6%. And with the presumably un-Green Blackbird Leys and Barton.

[Bizarre Löw Triangle]

The 2015 UK General Election thread

Tubby Isaacs wrote: Question for the Greens.

What do you make of the Cambridge result? Bennett went up their in the campaign, but vote share barely up on 2010. Not just the students but lots of science and high tech business round there. Are lots of them still seeing the Greens as anti-science?

The Greens struggled in Cambridge for a number of reasons.

For a start, Rupert Read was a particularly awful candidate - he seems to have only got the gig by being a (big) Green donor and, more troublingly, he made a series of very dodgy comments - most notably transphobic comments but also about immigration and about gender representation quotas within the Green Party. That meant he alienated exactly the sort of people on the left who'd have generally been drawn to the Green Party.

Secondly, the incumbent, Julian Huppert was one of the better Liberal Democrats. Locally he was viewed as both a decent constituency MP and fairly independent-minded. He was also very pro-science and his vote held up very well from last time (he got about 1,500 fewer votes). Part of that was no doubt due to Tories voting tactically to save him, but anecdotally, he remained pretty popular with woolly liberals.

Thirdly, as a tightly-contested Lib-Lab marginal there were plenty of voters who felt wasting a vote on the Green party might give a Lib-Con coaltion another seat.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The 2015 UK General Election thread

That makes good sense, thanks.

I could have lived with Huppert winning again. Was surprised he lost.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The 2015 UK General Election thread

Norman Baker, walking around Piccadilly Circus in a hat singing in the style of Ray Davies.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXLXhiJfFv4

[NHH]

The 2015 UK General Election thread

ursus arctos wrote: It's not really demographics.

If you want a book, this is a good place to start.

What's the Matter with Kansas? unravels the great political mystery of our day: Why do so many Americans vote against their economic and social interests? With his acclaimed wit and acuity, Thomas Frank answers the riddle by examining his home state, Kansas-a place once famous for its radicalism that now ranks among the nation's most eager participants in the culture wars. Charting what he calls the "thirty-year backlash"-the popular revolt against a supposedly liberal establishment-Frank reveals how conservatism, once a marker of class privilege, became the creed of millions of ordinary Americans.

A brilliant analysis-and funny to boot-What's the Matter with Kansas? is a vivid portrait of an upside-down world where blue-collar patriots recite the Pledge while they strangle their life chances; where small farmers cast their votes for a Wall Street order that will eventually push them off their land; and where a group of frat boys, lawyers, and CEOs has managed to convince the country that it speaks on behalf of the People.

Agreed - though there's a really great article by Adam Gopnik (not words I'd ever thought I'd write) which was very good on this:

What an ideology does is give you reasons not to pursue your own apparent rational interest—and this cuts both ways, including both wealthy people in New York who, out of social conviction, vote for politicians who are more likely to raise their taxes, and poor people in the South who vote for those devoted to cutting taxes on incomes they can never hope to earn. There is no such thing as false consciousness. There are simply beliefs that make us sacrifice one piece of self-evident interest for some other, larger principle.

[NHH]

The 2015 UK General Election thread

Meant to add that this is marvellous on the way Nixon and the 70s fractured the New Deal Coalition.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The 2015 UK General Election thread

I had a book called Nixonland once. It made a lot of race riots.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The 2015 UK General Election thread

You thought you'd got rid of Paxo, but you were wrong, old bean.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b4ea9052-f989-11e4-ae65-00144feab7de.html

In which he gets the HS2 budget wrong, doesn't argue anything properly. The thought of this fool being interviewed in his own style is amusing.

[E10 Rifle]

The 2015 UK General Election thread

This is obviously, technically, rather unfair on the Greens, but it did induce a wry smile.

[ursus arctos]

The 2015 UK General Election thread

Jefferson Cowie (the author of the book that NHH links) is the best historian of labour currently working in the US.