Irish Times

[Borracho]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Ambient Moyes Levels wrote: I've often wondered (or, rather, worried) what an Ireland governed by a Sinn Fein majority government would look like.

There is a fairly good chance that a right-wing coup, backed by some of Ireland's wealthier tax exiles, would be staged if that ever happened.

As it is, SF won't be getting anywhere near an overall majority for aeons because the bedrock of their support coincides with the demographic least likely to vote on the day (working-class males aged between 18 and 35).

[Diable Rouge]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

TAB will be glad to know I'm keeping this title as it's likely to be the main theme of the next campaign. Meanwhile, McNulty was defeated in the Seanad by-election, but only lost the first-count by four votes, in the bizarre position whereby Kenny's leadership would have been questioned if the FG contender had won.

[Toro Toro]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Green Calx wrote:

I've often wondered (or, rather, worried) what an Ireland governed by a Sinn Fein majority government would look like.

There is a fairly good chance that a right-wing coup, backed by some of Ireland's wealthier tax exiles, would be staged if that ever happened.

Even with the full backing of the army, I don't fancy their chances taking on the Provies in terms of arms, resources, or training...

[Borracho]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

I imagine Blackwater would be getting a 3am phone call from Malta or Gibraltar.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

it didn't happen in 1932, and it's very unlikely to happen now. It would take a matter of minutes for Sinn fein to muscle Fine Gael off Denis O'Brien's teat and they could suckle down and grow sleek and fat.

[Toro Toro]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Well, hang on. It didn't happen in 1932 because the generals made the fatal but familiar mistake of arranging to meet up in Buswell's an hour or so before the appointed hour.

Some time around closing time they had that all-too-familiar "ah, fuck, wasn't I meant to get something done today?" feeling. But, disaster averted.

Our national pragmatism is neither deep-rooted nor rationally-grounded. But then, the whole point of pragmatism is that you make do what you're given...

[Diable Rouge]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Looks like Ming's protege will defeat FF on transfers in Roscommon/South Leitrim, while Paul Murphy of the Socialist Party may also overturn SF's first-count lead, but that appears to be a much tighter race, so may be some twists to come there yet.

[Diable Rouge]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Murphy wins in Dublin, so the Socialists temporarily have a Dáil bloc of three until Higgins retires.

[Diable Rouge]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Fitzmaurice ultimately wins the Roscommon count by 2,800 votes.What have we learnt today? FF still face an uphill battle against Independents and SF, with no clear idea about what they stand for. FG will be held back more by taxation issues than gaining any recovery bounce, while Labour have a three-pronged assault from the Left, Independents and SF to fend off as they try to redefine their raison d'etre. SF still have issues with transfers and getting their vote out, while the various Left parties need to coalesce rather than continuing internecine Judean People's Front level squabbling.

[Borracho]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Very surprised by that Dublin SW result. If even Sinn Fein are getting unhorsed by a protest vote, people must be seriously angry.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

there are still a lot of people who think they are dirty. Paul murphy never killed anyone, and doesn't take orders from those that did.

[Borracho]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Sinn Fein have been the biggest party in that corner of Dublin for a long time now. Sean Crowe topped the poll in that constituency at the 2002 general election.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

...and then lost his seat in 2007. there are two labour tds there now, and before that there were two fianna fail td's.

the deciding factor here was that paul murphy was always against water charges, whereas sinn fein didn't develop their heartfelt opposition to the until relatively late in the day

[Borracho]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

He lost his seat in 2007 because of gerrymandering. The boundaries of the constituency were changed just before the election.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

the boundary change was in 1998, and he was elected after that. He just lost his seat, because those people are very fickle

I'd imagine that sinn fein will be the biggest party at the next election though.

[Borracho]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

The Awesome Berbaslug!!! wrote: the boundary change was in 1998

I'm almost 100% certain you're wrong on that. I lived in the constituency at the time.

[Diable Rouge]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Green Calx wrote:

the boundary change was in 1998

I'm almost 100% certain you're wrong on that. I lived in the constituency at the time.

Turns out Berbaslug is right:

Wikipedia wrote: In 1998, it was reduced in size and electorate, losing territory, including Newcastle, Rathcoole, Saggart and Clondalkin to the new Dublin Mid-West seat.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Santry? Where the fuck is this constituency?

[Diable Rouge]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Heh, I get a nosebleed any farther from O'Connell Street than Croke Park, so no use asking me!

[Borracho]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Well, I stand corrected. I must be mixing it up with something else.

[Diable Rouge]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Ah, Budget Day - a second Christmas for political correspondents, and the only time that Dáil attendance reaches double figures. Will we see the government seek to leave a legacy through improved state services or use their final budget to play auction politics by splurging on tax cuts? (Other countries wouldn't see that as a rhetorical question, would they?)

[Toro Toro]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

The Awesome Berbaslug!!! wrote: Santry? Where the fuck is this constituency?

That would be some impressively brazen gerrymandering.

Why not throw in one particular house in Balbriggan and a street in Blessington, while you're at it?

[Duncan Gardner]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Green Calx wrote: Fianna Fail killed far more people with their vicious, swingeing and avoidable cuts to the health service in the late 1980s than the IRA ever did

A 30 year campaign of thousands of murders, blowing things up, associated intimidation and the rest will clearly have contributed to some premature non-violent deaths, although like GC's claim they're basically impossible to measure.

As for SF's socialist credentials outweighing the militant nationalist, they still have a united Ireland ('advancing the Peace Process', euphemistically) listed as top policy priority ahead of economic issues.

[Diable Rouge]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

In an interesting aside, though FF are the largest party, the Technical Group is the largest bloc, so who gets to address Noonan first will be hotly contested.

[Borracho]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

"Thousands of murders", strictly speaking, is a misnomer. The fully researched figure is a still-gruesome 1,823, and that includes all vaguely republican-associated murders and internecine killings not claimed by the PIRA or any other group. It works out at 49% of all the deaths in the Troubles.

I maintain that the deliberate and systematic degradation of the Irish health service since 1987 or so, carried out primarily in order to force the middle classes of Ireland into the waiting arms of private healthcare interests, has bumped off a lot more people than the Provos did. Not that it makes the Provos any better, but I don't want to hear it from a shower of ghouls like Fianna Fail or their blue buddies.