Irish Times

[Borracho]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

A large group of anti-water charges protesters have trapped Joan Burton in her car in Jobstown (she was attending some event there) and are refusing to let her move. A load of cops are there too. The stand-off has been going on for the best part of two hours.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gu42hhXCLUs&feature=youtu.be

Jobstown is one of the most deprived suburbs in Dublin.

[Duncan Gardner]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Paul Culloty wrote: Westminster solely hearing unionist perspectives on Northern issues

There are four non-Unionist NI MPs even without the Shinners.

Do you savages kidnap foreign politicans as well as your own? We can send a few over.

[Diable Rouge]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Dunarean Gradinar wrote:

Westminster solely hearing unionist perspectives on Northern issues

There are four non-Unionist NI MPs even without the Shinners.

Do you savages kidnap foreign politicans as well as your own? We can send a few over.

The SDLP have been looking for this since Garret's time, so don't doubt they'd take it up. As for Joan, much as any government minister deserves a haranguing, there's holding a dignified protest, and then there's morphing into an angry mob.

[Diable Rouge]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Anyone for an SF/Others coalition?

SF 22% (+2)
FG 22% (-4)
FF 18% (-)
Lab 7% (-1)
Others 31% (+3)

[Borracho]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Looks like the Mairia Cahill episode has done Sinn Fein no meaningful damage. Unless, of course, we theorise that they would be much higher in the polls if it hadn't come along.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

There's a good chance that it will make them transfer toxic.

[The Bean Counter]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

As if they weren't already...

SF will need to be a lot further ahead in the polls if they are too win the most seats, because there are still a lot of people who will make sure they put a number in every single box on their ballot except the SF one, just in case. In my constituency, Wicklow, their candidate was second after the first count, in a five seat constituency. He still couldn't get elected.

[The Bean Counter]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

As for Cahill, I think SF's support can be divided into those who don't care, and those who are deluded enough to think that it's all a big fuss over nothing cooked up by FG/FF/Dennis O'Brien/the BBC in order to deliberately tarnish a great republican and patriot like Gerry Adams, who did everything he could to help Ms Cahill even though he knew nothing about the abuse, and all just because he is becoming too popular with the ordinary people of Ireland.

[Diable Rouge]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

After Varadkar's "gay marriage" quip on a FF-FG merger, it may well come to pass before the end of the decade, depending on the make-up of the next Dáil. Some form of consolidation of the right seems necessary for a greater degree of stability, with a resultant drive for union amongst the left and centre of the spectrum.

[Duncan Gardner]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Possible names for the new failed political entity:

Gael-Fail
Destiny's Child (FF = 'Soldiers of Destiny')
Tribal Delight (FG = 'Tribes of Ireland')
New Sinn Finn
Itsy Bitsy Teensy Weeny Baldy Headed Warren Feeney...

[anton pulisov]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

FF is the second most popular party amongst 18-24 year olds.

That is a very worrying statistic.

[Borracho]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

A Labour senator has said that the water protests are turning Ireland into a "lawless utopia" (sic) which will scare off foreign investment. Sweet mother of jesus.

[Borracho]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

zbiginho wrote: As for Cahill, I think SF's support can be divided into those who don't care, and those who are deluded enough to think that it's all a big fuss over nothing cooked up by FG/FF/Dennis O'Brien/the BBC in order to deliberately tarnish a great republican and patriot like Gerry Adams, who did everything he could to help Ms Cahill even though he knew nothing about the abuse, and all just because he is becoming too popular with the ordinary people of Ireland.

Well, there's also Option C, in which people can see her allegations against Adams and SF as extremely serious and deserving of full investigation by the PSNI, which also deploring the undisguised relish with which Fine Gael, Labour and most of the Irish media have utilised an alleged rape as a great way of sticking it to an opposition party.

Investigate thoroughly what Adams knew or didn't know, by all means. At the end of that investigation, if it is proved that he did actually cover up a rape, put him in prison for perverting the course of justice and that will also be the end of his political career. Gleefully using it as a deflection device to get Irish Water off the main headlines, as the government parties have been doing for the past few weeks, is contemptible.

[Diable Rouge]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Predictions:

FG 41
SF 35
FF 31
Lab 5
Others 46

Only an unlikely troika of FG, SF and Labour would have a majority.

[anton pulisov]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Basically, people are willing to vote for anything that is not FFGLab, even if that means voting for SF.

Due to the constituency system, it's too difficult for any new and/or small party to ever get a foothold. Only Sinn Fein has the necessary milit... erm... grass roots structure to get into various constituencies.

FFGLab will never bring in a list system because turkey TDs don't vote for Christmas. Sure how would the Willy O'Dea / Healy-Rae / Coveney / Kenny genepool ever get elected in a list system?

I am shocked to read that Simon Coveney is one of the most popular ministers in Ireland. The man doesn't do anything, save a very good, albeit unintended, Tim Nice But Dim impression.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

I don't understand what your great gra is for a list system. all that means is that you get party insiders and professional career politicians as td's, rather than people who have to face their local electorate.

[The Bean Counter]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Green Calx wrote: Gleefully using it as a deflection device to get Irish Water off the main headlines, as the government parties have been doing for the past few weeks, is contemptible.

Those dastardly politicians, playing politics again! What depths will they sink to next in their quest to divert attention away from their problems? Probably organise a sit in protest over some trumped up slight.

[Toro Toro]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

The Awesome Berbaslug!!! wrote: I don't understand what your great gra is for a list system. all that means is that you get party insiders and professional career politicians as td's, rather than people who have to face their local electorate.

Don't be silly, Berba. A list system is a thing that can be understood, and is different. Therefore it is the solution to all electoral ills, except in countries that already have a list system. There, the panacea is PR-STV or, occasionally, first-past-the-post. In all cases, something must be done; and in all cases, an alternative electoral system is something.

zbiginho wrote:
Those dastardly politicians, playing politics again! What depths will they sink to next in their quest to divert attention away from their problems? Probably organise a sit in protest over some trumped up slight.

Aye. The lack of symmetry here is hilarious.

[anton pulisov]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Almost all problems in Ireland today can be traced back to the fact that men and women who specialise in fixing footpaths, going to funerals and organising medical cards for old ladies, are sent to a national parliament to run a nation's economy. Sometimes these morons even have to negotiate with the IMF and the ECB.

Ireland is a country where Willy O'Dea became a government minister, and where Michael Lowry was elected with a huge majority despite having being found "profoundly corrupt to a degree that was nothing short of breathtaking." But he's a good local lad who is good at ripping off the national government for the benefit of his local constituency. How anybody could look at all that shite and not conclude that parish pump politics is one of the main reasons, if not the main reason, that Ireland is up shit creek, is beyond me.

Sure, Sweden and Holland employ national list systems that leave your parliament stuffed with faceless technocrats and political careerists. But those countries seem to function well. Being a local gombeen man or son of a dead local gombeen man isn't the fastest way to become the Prime Minister of Sweden.

However, seeing as neither of you ever lived in a functioning social democracy, I don't know why I am even bothering to explain these things.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Sure, Sweden and Holland employ lists systems that leaves your parliament stuffed with faceless technocrats and political careerists. But those countries seem to function well. Being a local gombeen man or son of a dead local gombeen man isn't the fastest way to become the Prime Minister of Sweden.

but thats what the people want. The clue is in the names. We don't have members of parliament. We have messengers to the parliament. We don't have a prime minister. We have a Chieftain.

The political system is a reflection of the underlying society, so I don't know if you can make the distinction you are making. a list system won't turn us into holland, any more than a first past the post system would turn us into england. And only four of our 13 taoisigh have been the children of td's. One of them wasn't elected, and oversaw the demolition of his party.

[Borracho]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

zbiginho wrote:

Gleefully using it as a deflection device to get Irish Water off the main headlines, as the government parties have been doing for the past few weeks, is contemptible.

Those dastardly politicians, playing politics again! What depths will they sink to next in their quest to divert attention away from their problems? Probably organise a sit in protest over some trumped up slight.

That's a slightly odd post. I might be old-fashioned but I still think there are some things that shouldn't be cynically milked for short-term political gain. Enda Kenny happily waving an alleged rape victim around like a new toy on the plinth of Leinster House a fortnight ago very much falls into that category.

Regarding Mairia Cahill herself -- let's wait and see what a proper, thorough investigation by the cops turns up. Some of the most mendacious and dishonest journalists in the country are heavily involved in driving this thing, and for that reason alone, extreme caution is required before all the facts are known.

[Borracho]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Antonio Pulisao wrote: Ireland is a country where Willy O'Dea became a government minister, and where Michael Lowry was elected with a huge majority despite having being found "profoundly corrupt to a degree that was nothing short of breathtaking." But he's a good local lad who is good at ripping off the national government for the benefit of his local constituency.

The funny thing about Michael Lowry is that when he was in Fine Gael, it used to take him two or three counts to get in on general election night, with 6,000 or 7,000 votes. In early 1997, he was made to resign from Fine Gael. He has since contested four general elections as an Independent and topped the poll in every single one of them, and his share of first preferences has effectively doubled since his FG days. What this says about the plain people of Tipperary North, I wouldn't like to speculate.

http://electionsireland.org/candidate.cfm?ID=3737

[anton pulisov]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

The Awesome Berbaslug!!! wrote:
but thats what the people want. The clue is in the names. We don't have members of parliament. We have messengers to the parliament. We don't have a prime minister. We have a Chieftain.

Well, if you're going to argue egg and I'm going to argue chicken then this will take a long time.

The political system is a reflection of the underlying society, so I don't know if you can make the distinction you are making. a list system won't turn us into holland, any more than a first past the post system would turn us into england. And only four of our 13 taoisigh have been the children of td's. One of them wasn't elected, and oversaw the demolition of his party.

Wow, only four. Look at what living in Ireland has done to your perception of acceptable levels of inbreeding.

[Diable Rouge]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

I remain unconvinced that list systems would mark a political panacea, after all every party has a Bacik that the HQ loves, but prove actively repellent to the electorate. Personally, I'd keep STV, but operate it in 100 single-seat constituencies, ensuring TDs owe their primary loyalty to the electorate, loosening the whip system also assisting said purpose.

[anton pulisov]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Single seat constituencies are the worst of both worlds.

STV is a very satisfying way to vote. You could have four constituencies - one for each province - with about 15-30 TDs in each of them, proportional to the population of course. STV should be kept, to make sure that people aren't afraid of throwing their vote away by voting for a small party that won't get a seat.

But, to be honest, Ireland is too small a country to be sustaining even regional constituencies in a national parliament. Parish pump bullshit would still be in effect even then.