Covid-19 pandemic

[ursus arctos]

Janik, I think that PT's graph may be from page 19 of this report. There is more on methodology in the text

https://assets.publishing.service.go..._-_week_36.pdf

[Discordant Resonance]

Anyone know of a source of data showing absolute mortality numbers over a recent time-frame* (i.e. once the UK population was mostly vaccinated) between double dosed and unvaccinated? That would clear up my confusion about the graph above.

* - one can find news reports from July saying that deaths amongst the vaccinated outnumber the unvaccinated. But closer inspection shows that data was from the period of February to mid-June, so;
i) included amongst the vaccinated those who had only had one dose,
ii) would be demographically biased towards the vaccinated dying given vaccination across that period went from most to least vulnerable,
iiI) had a limited sample size as deaths were significantly down over much of that period
iv) but also varied substantially over it, which is important given that the vaccination status of the population was nothing like static over the period

Ireland's Central Statistics Office shows that the mortality rate went from 24 per 1,000 cases in January to 1 per 1,000 in August. There were 21 deaths in the week ending 3 September, 76% of which (16) were in over-65s, who have had full vaccination rates of virtually 100% since mid-July:

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpub...casesseries31/

[S. aureus]

Janik, I think that PT's graph may be from page 19 of this report. There is more on methodology in the text

https://assets.publishing.service.go..._-_week_36.pdf

The table on page 14 is kind of interesting, also.

[Janik]

That ties up somewhat with the very strong correlation between age and getting vaccinated to be found on pages 10 and 11 of the week 35 report. For 1st doses everything is basically at the asymptote now and the percentage drops by 5 year age band in a remarkably close to expectations fashion. The only out of order group is 18-25 year olds* being more likely to be vaccinated than 25-30. And one could offer some plausible reasons for that - more likely to still be living with parents who are more vulnerable and able to put pressure on regarding their offspring not exposing them, and also more likely to be at Uni's that strongly encourage getting vaccinated.

It seem remarkable to me that only 75% of 40-45 year olds have had one jab, and only 70% have had both. What are 1-in-4 of my peers thinking??

* - in so, so many ways...

[Patrick Thistle]

Sorry Janik, I saved it off Twitter and put it in as an image rather than an embedded tweet. Thanks ursus arctos for sorting

[Janik]

Still looks like 35 rather than 36 to me, however hard I squint. Have to get my eyes tested...

[Forest Gump]

I'm in Italy at the moment, and would say indoor/public transport mask wearing is very close to 100%, a stark contrast to the UK.

[caja-dglh]

Dullard with the sign - vaccination is French, not German. From vache (cow (cowpox (Pasteur (you all know this story right? (parenthesis overload (spot the mathematician)))))).

As EEG notes, the vaccination comes from the latin apparently. And the reference to "German Born" likely relates to Germany having compulsory small pox vaccinations (England had compulsory vaccinations earlier but acquiesced to objectors in 1889).

[ursus arctos]

The Health Secretary, ladies and gentlemen

[https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1438023721017556994?s=21

[Capybara]

Crikey.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

I know you know how the Soviet Empire worked (not the mention the other three (not counting the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth)), so I'm a bit taken aback by that take.

I thought that Ireland didn't have gays in the 1950s. That's what people here say. It was like the snakes.

It doesn't have to be your own empire to foster denialism. Most pertinently they lived under communism for 44 years, and communism is wall to wall bullshit, designed to make you distrustful of the state.

As for us, we spent the 1950's trying to make heterosexuality illegal. The Poles lack vision. but the 1950's were a wild time, what can I say.

One story that my dad did have from the fifties in drumcolliher, which was as rural, shut down and conservative as any small village anywhere, even before the massive fire tragedy traumatised them into numbness. There was a scandal involving the "Hammer gang" who were a bunch of young teenagers, and one fella a couple of years younger, who would gather in assorted places around the village and engage in group masturbation. I don't know if this was mutual, or just a bunch of lads just standing around just tugging for ireland. It wasn't clear. Either way they were discovered, and it was a bit of a scandal. They all went on to get married and bang out a load of kids and become local pillars of the community, bar the young fella, who I met in the early 90's, and even then It wasn't exactly hard to tell that he was gay, (though having by that stage hunted down every kenneth williams radio show that I could, and watched every carry on movie, and 80's irish kids tv, it was a surprise to meet my first fairly openly gay person) It must have been a horrendously lonely and difficult life for that poor man in east limerick. He made quite a comfortable living as a watch and clock repairer, and dealer.

It's difficult to know really how to classify this sort of behaviour, because according to the Kinsey report, this was basically a normal activity for adolescents with too much time on their hands and before the advent of television in much of real america, and it only really seems to have been clamped down on as abhorrent homosexuality in the moral backlash to that report.

[Patrick Thistle]

It says something when Pastafarianism seems a more sensible option than some other religions

https://twitter.com/hemantmehta/status/1438113265284956163?s=19

[Patrick Thistle]

The letter they provide

https://twitter.com/henderob/status/1437787747964661761?s=19

[Patrick Thistle]

And, less frivolously...

https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1438120495954735109?s=19

[Discordant Resonance]

Irish passport holders vaccinated outside the EU will now be granted access to the EU Digital Covid Cert, which in practice will be of most benefit to NI residents, but going by the article, I don't see why GB residents with an Irish passport wouldn't also benefit.

[San Bernardhinault]

Cases keep creeping up here in Massachusetts. In absolute terms, it's all still pretty low compared to Peak Pandemic, and compared to places in the South and Mountain West. But we very clearly haven't peaked, or even reached equilibrium. There've been a couple of times it's looked like the linear growth was coming to an end, but it never actually has. If I were guessing, schools returning is almost certainly the driver here.

[jwdd27]

English Life Expectancy drops to 2011 levels - now 78.7 for men and 82.7 for women.

More depressing data in the linked article, including increased inequality between rich and poor, and alcohol's increased role in excess deaths.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/...vel-since-2011

[Amor de Cosmos]

Today was the first day of vaccine passports in BC. Aside from another wave of antivaxx protests, QR chaos is rampant. For old farts (like me) who don't have a smart phone, the paper QR won't scan. I sat over my regular-large drip-with cream this morning watching Billy, the owner of our local coffee shop, futilely waving his phone over a succession of customers' paper output. I suspect when printed wallet size on 20lb bond, the quality is illegible to most e-readers. I'll try a larger card tomorrow, but beyond a certain size and paper weight it could get very inconvenient to transport on a regular basis.

For my trip to the coffee shop today I was well prepared with a new print-out of my QR on glossy card stock. But apparently the rules have changed, all that's required now is photo ID — like a drivers license. OK. "But wait up" I said "I'm standing here with a mask on, and you're checking a photo of my face to find out whether I've been vaccinated?" This does not compute... on any level. I got a shrug in response. [To be continued...]

[ursus arctos]

One would almost think that this policy was designed by smart phone manufacturers

[Amor de Cosmos]

Quite.

La Signora, who has downloaded the QR scanner, tried to scan my new print out, with no luck. I don't think anyone could reasonably have done more to make it readable. Though someone has printed theirs on a t-shirt, which apparently works "just fine."

[lambers]

Though someone has printed theirs on a t-shirt, which apparently works "just fine."

Is that what's on the Cray Wanderers kit?

[Balderdasha]

Anecdata. Mother-in-law has had to go to A&E for non-Covid reasons. She has palpitations and high heart rate and we're really hoping she'll be ok. But relevant to this thread, they are not allowing anyone to accompany her into hospital and she says she's never seen it so busy, has taken about six hours even to be seen, people vomiting in the waiting room. She says it's horrendous.

[delicatemoth]

Been up in Scotland since Sunday, Skye, the masking indoors here is impressive, very, very rare you see a bare face...and that's with lots of tourists around.

It was the same in Ballachulish. I really enjoyed it.

In other news, I still can't get my second jab. There appear to be no appointment vaccination centres in Camden or Islington and I am far too depressed to go across town somewhere I don't know. Walk-ins don't have AZ.

Someone who knows please tell me - could I get a second jab that's one of the other vaccines (Pfizer or Moderna)? Would that work?

[S. aureus]

I'm not a doctor (or vaccine expert), but I believe that mixing the vaccines is completely fine (indeed, may be better). See this BBC article:
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57636356

[delicatemoth]

Thank you. The official policy is still two of the same though, so I don't know if that will hold much water with the vaccinators. Maybe if I break down and cry at them.