General Election, December 2019

[Nocturnal Submission]

Presumably because the Tory manifesto will commit all their candidates to supporting the new WA, no ifs or buts.

The Brexit Party's best bet is that in a handful of seats the mood/local polls or whatever points to them substantially outpolling the Tory candidate and that Conservative support then swings behind their man or woman. But I can't see that applying in too many seats. For instance, in their No. 1 target, Hartlepool, the Tory vote at the last election was almost exactly three times that of UKIP.

They would need to focus on those areas where they outpolled the Tories in 2017 and I'm not sure how many places fit the bill.

[Janik]

The LDs tactic have been to produce charts extrapolating the EU elections into local polling, thus showing that they are in the lead / the only realistic alternative to the Tories. It is, at best, mendacious and at worst outright lying and increases the chances of the Tories keeping the seat. Which is the point, really.

Yes, the source of the poll that got breathlessly reported is particularly notable. But I'm not getting a sense you really understand this area of the country ticks. It's affluence is majorly threatened by Brexit. It's as close to a mono-issue election as any constituency has.

To suggest Labour have any sort of hope of taking the seat better fits your description of outright lying that increases the Tories (already extremely good) chances. Labour taking a very distant second in 2015 and 2017 is the anomaly historically in South Cambs voting - the Lib Dems had been consistently been the nearest challengers, albeit rarely actively close to an upset, since the 1970s. The time when Labour sneaked past to be the best of the rest coincided with the Lib Dems national support being at a notably low ebb nationally. It's factual that they polled nearly 10 times as many votes as Labour just six months ago, and notable that the turnout in South Cambs that produced that result was extremely high for a European/Local election day (pushing 50%). Over 20,000 people put their cross next to the Lib Dems that day. Only the Tories can claim those absolute numbers in any other election of any type in the history of the constituency.
Party commissioned polls are clearly propaganda, but not all propaganda is distorted to the same degree. Even from the same organisation. Local variations matter. Here there is a large dose of truth in the idea that Labour votes are the wasted ones for anyone doing negative, anti-Tory voting.

[Nefertiti2]

If the libDems had fought a campaign based on seats like South Cambridgeshire we might have agreed with you.

bit instead they chose seats like Canterbury, where Labour is the incumbent

[Nocturnal Submission]

Presumably because the Tory manifesto will commit all their candidates to supporting the new WA, no ifs or buts.

The Brexit Party's best bet is that in a handful of seats the mood/local polls or whatever points to them substantially outpolling the Tory candidate and that Conservative support then swings behind their man or woman. But I can't see that applying in too many seats. For instance, in their No. 1 target, Hartlepool, the Tory vote at the last election was almost exactly three times that of UKIP.

They would need to focus on those areas where they outpolled the Tories in 2017 and I'm not sure how many places fit the bill.

I did a bit of research and the answer to the last question is precisely nowhere.

A suppose Hartlepool might be their best bet, given that UKIP were only 3,000 votes behind Labour in 2015, but the Tories now sit comfortably in second place and Tice will be seen as as Southern blow-in.

[Nefertiti2]

Need more Pidcocks

[URL]https://twitter.com/shirleymush/status/1193971073630588928?s=21[/URL]

[Nefertiti2]

[URL]https://twitter.com/alex_niven/status/1193875569978564613?s=21[/URL]

[Diable Rouge]

Why would Plaid stand aside for Labour in Arfon when they have the MP?

[Snake Plissken]

Damn, I wish there more like her.

https://twitter.com/PoliticsJOE_UK/status/1193841966678757376

[Nefertiti2]

[URL]https://twitter.com/jenwilliamsmen/status/1193983725782081536?s=21[/URL]

[Nefertiti2]

[URL]https://twitter.com/johnb78/status/1193983726767759362?s=21[/URL]

[Satchmo Distel]

I'm not sure Corbyn is more socially liberal than Michael Foot. His manifesto will less to the left than the 1983 one.

[Nefertiti2]

That bloke might be under thirty-certainly more liberal than Kinnock Blair or Brown.



This is good though

[URL]https://twitter.com/labourlist/status/1194019506743414784?s=21[/URL]

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

The LDs tactic have been to produce charts extrapolating the EU elections into local polling, thus showing that they are in the lead / the only realistic alternative to the Tories. It is, at best, mendacious and at worst outright lying and increases the chances of the Tories keeping the seat. Which is the point, really.

It's not possible to engage with comments that are quite that deranged. "Which is the point, really". Seriously, WTF are you taking? The LD membership has more than doubled since the Brexit referendum, due to an influx of new members, like myself, who were motivated to join overwhelmingly by a desire to stop Brexit (and who, due to that doubling, now constitute a majority of the LD party membership). And you think "the point" of our activity is to help the Tories win seats - that's the Tories, who increasingly favour a particularly damaging and obnoxious form of Brexit, so the complete opposite of the objective that made us become Lib Dems in the first place? That doesn't even begin to make sense, it's just mad ranting.

[Nocturnal Submission]

Better news for Labour in the latest ICM poll with the Tory lead cut to 8% (39%-31%) and the LDs becalmed in the mid-teens.

[Nefertiti2]

It's not possible to engage with comments that are quite that deranged. "Which is the point, really". Seriously, WTF are you taking? The LD membership has more than doubled since the Brexit referendum, due to an influx of new members, like myself, who were motivated to join overwhelmingly by a desire to stop Brexit (and who, due to that doubling, now constitute a majority of the LD party membership). And you think "the point" of our activity is to help the Tories win seats - that's the Tories, who increasingly favour a particularly damaging and obnoxious form of Brexit, so the complete opposite of the objective that made us become Lib Dems in the first place? That doesn't even begin to make sense, it's just mad ranting.

So why are LibbDems targeting Rosie Duffield in Canterbury?

[ad hoc]

I certainly think it's against the interests of the LibDem membership, but it does appear that Swinson and her leadership team are hell bent on enabling the Tories and therefore a hard Brexit. Why that is I can't speculate, but the evidence is fairly clear and mounting

[Snake Plissken]

It's not possible to engage with comments that are quite that deranged. "Which is the point, really". Seriously, WTF are you taking? The LD membership has more than doubled since the Brexit referendum, due to an influx of new members, like myself, who were motivated to join overwhelmingly by a desire to stop Brexit (and who, due to that doubling, now constitute a majority of the LD party membership). And you think "the point" of our activity is to help the Tories win seats - that's the Tories, who increasingly favour a particularly damaging and obnoxious form of Brexit, so the complete opposite of the objective that made us become Lib Dems in the first place? That doesn't even begin to make sense, it's just mad ranting.

I don't think that it is the point of your activity, I think it is the point of what Swinson is doing. Whose every move has been to position the LDs as a spoiler for Labour and not the Tories, even if it helps the Conservatives deliver Brexit. There is only one Party that Swinson has categorically stated she would never support under any circumstance, and that is not the Tories. I can't stand Cable or Farron, but I can't see them doing any of what she's doing.

[Antepli Ejderha]

I certainly think it's against the interests of the LibDem membership, but it does appear that Swinson and her leadership team are hell bent on enabling the Tories and therefore a hard Brexit. Why that is I can't speculate, but the evidence is fairly clear and mounting

Power?

They've become the left wing of the Tory party and Swinson seems to believe she can sweep up all those votes using the fear of Corbyn. With no Brexit Party in 317 seats Johnson can push back to the centre if he wants and leave Swinson in real trouble.

Whatever the reason the endgame isn't going to be pleasant.

[Nefertiti2]

Classy Lib Dems! Former Tory Sam Gyimah blames Labour’s Emma Dent Coad for Grenfell

[URL]https://twitter.com/nupopulism/status/1194144187945562112?s=21[/URL]


what a repulsive little shit the man is.

” It’s one of those issues that should be above party politics and about the people and their families rather than being part of the culture war that is happening.”

He continued: “If you look at the Phase One report [of the official inquiry into the disaster], which is a very bleak assessment, there are many things that went wrong. By the way, Emma Dent Coad was on the council and was part of all the discussions that went on in terms of the cladding.

[Freestyling buck wilding Stijn Stijnen]

I can see that people would join the libdems in order to stop brexit.
For there are no other reasons to join that tory enabling bunch of shitfucks.

[ad hoc]

I'm also thinking minor impact in terms of gaining seats from Labour; many who were voting Brexit in Labour seats were previously 'never Tories' whose option other than that is now gone.
I think Etienne is right, this is more damaging for Lib Dems chances of taking advantage of a split vote to snatch seats in blue remain areas like, well, around here. For example, a poll reported locally last week for the South Cambs constituency (field work done after Heidi Allen had announced she wasn't standing and with named candidates) had the Lib Dems on 40%, Tories on 36%, Labour on 12%, Brexit on 7% and Greens on 4%. Obviously those numbers change without Brexit, or indeed the Greens who have also stood aside since.
Massive caveat to that poll being it was commissioned by the Lib Dems! It is purporting a massive swing towards the people who paid for it as the Lib Dems were third on 18.6% in the 2017 General Election. That said, in this years European elections they had jumped to a very clear first with Brexit second and the Greens comfortably third. So it does ring sort of true.

Well, now that we know who the Tory candidate actually is (and it is clear he is an appalling racist bag of shit) this will all get tested. I don;t hold out much hope to be honest, as that constituency (my mum's as well as EEG's) has been solidly Tory for ever (well until Heidi Allen jumped ship). https://www.theguardian.com/politics...droidApp_Tweet

[E10 Rifle]

I think the LibDems - certainly Swinson and her circle - have identified the vacuum on the Tory left as the gap to be filled, and are moving to fill it, as a kind of opportunistic one-nation Tory-lite party. Which is fine, there's probably a Christian-Democrat style hole to be occupied there now, but it's incompatible with the basic values of the Greens, Plaid, SNP and Labour.

[Snake Plissken]

In normal times, yes. But for the party of Stop Brexit?

How many of the defectors have been given senior posts? I notice Sam Gyimah is now Business Spokesman.

[E10 Rifle]

His behaviour in Kensington has been despicable.

[Flynnie]

I think the LibDems - certainly Swinson and her circle - have identified the vacuum on the Tory left as the gap to be filled, and are moving to fill it, as a kind of opportunistic one-nation Tory-lite party. Which is fine, there's probably a Christian-Democrat style hole to be occupied there now, but it's incompatible with the basic values of the Greens, Plaid, SNP and Labour.

It’s mask off shit, you can’t run the campaign Swinson has ran and claim your core policy position is actually so.