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General Election, December 2019

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    General Election, December 2019

    Seems like it's on.

    Boy. Oh boy oh boy. I'm excited.

    #2
    I'm not. I've got enough on in the pre-Christmas period as it is.

    Comment


      #3
      As mentioned elsewhere, our Christmas trade is now completely screwed. (There is a direct correlation between people coming out and spending at markets like ours and political uncertainty / election time.)

      Comment


        #4
        And me, rapidly rearranging my diary to cancel a planned holiday, so that we can have friends round for the - ahem - inevitable celebration party*. Hoping to go canvassing in East Worthing and Shoreham this week, it's a marginal.

        * Yep, y' can all remind me of this miscalculation on the actual night...

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by Snake Plissken View Post
          As mentioned elsewhere, our Christmas trade is now completely screwed. (There is a direct correlation between people coming out and spending at markets like ours and political uncertainty / election time.)
          Eek, sorry to hear that Snake, and sorry if my excitement is misplaced in your context.

          Comment


            #6
            The wiki page has an interesting list of people not standing for re-election. The names that stick out for me: Twigg (Potillo's nemesis), Stewart (falling off the radar even more quickly than Paul Ryan did in the US), Letwin, Hoey, Greening, Fallon, Clarke, Burt, Boles, Clwyd. A surprising number of the 2010 intake are off.

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_U...neral_election

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by Snake Plissken View Post
              As mentioned elsewhere, our Christmas trade is now completely screwed. (There is a direct correlation between people coming out and spending at markets like ours and political uncertainty / election time.)
              OTOH the hit to the Xmas trade will at least be a forewarning to voters how fucked the economy will be under Brexit. Some voters might take the hint.

              Comment


                #8
                Vote early, vote often, Vote TACTICALLY.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Vote often???

                  Comment


                    #10
                    New Ulster Unionist Party leader Steve Aiken has said the UUP will contest all 18 seats in NI. Arlene isn't pleased.

                    The UUP probably isn't long for this World. They have no MEP nor MPs, Stormont's moribund, and shockingly only 2 of the 60 Councillors in Belfast City (there are now 4 Greens). All this means funds are stretched. In the May election a lot of their voters went to Alliance as well as DUP/ TUV.

                    On the other hand, there are plenty of Unionists who simply won't vote DUP and the latter are being embarrassed again by scandal ('Arlene baby, let's renew the heat'). Aiken (ex Navy officer) may feel he has little to lose.

                    Prediction: Belfast South SDLP gain from DUP; Foyle SDLP gain from SF. Others unchanged. New total: DUP 9, SF 6, SDLP 2, Ind U 1

                    Pebble: it's an old gag. Fermanagh & South Tyrone's result is already in with a 103% turnout,
                    Last edited by Duncan Gardner; 29-10-2019, 11:36.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by johnr View Post
                      Eek, sorry to hear that Snake, and sorry if my excitement is misplaced in your context.
                      Oh, no worries. I'm going to try and help out with leafleting and stuff myself if I get chance.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Will the dark evenings have a bearing on campaigning? What if the weather is absolutely shitty?

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by Snake Plissken View Post

                          Oh, no worries. I'm going to try and help out with leafleting and stuff myself if I get chance.

                          Well, that's one way of making yourself feel better, I suppose.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by Satchmo Distel View Post
                            The wiki page has an interesting list of people not standing for re-election. The names that stick out for me: Twigg (Potillo's nemesis), Stewart (falling off the radar even more quickly than Paul Ryan did in the US), Letwin, Hoey, Greening, Fallon, Clarke, Burt, Boles, Clwyd. A surprising number of the 2010 intake are off.

                            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_U...neral_election

                            Heidi Allen is standing down too.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by Duncan Gardner View Post
                              New Ulster Unionist Party leader Steve Aiken has said the UUP will contest all 18 seats in NI. Arlene isn't pleased.

                              The UUP probably isn't long for this World. They have no MEP nor MPs, Stormont's moribund, and shockingly only 2 of the 60 Councillors in Belfast City (there are now 4 Greens). All this means funds are stretched. In the May election a lot of their voters went to Alliance as well as DUP/ TUV.

                              On the other hand, there are plenty of Unionists who simply won't vote DUP and the latter are being embarrassed again by scandal ('Arlene baby, let's renew the heat'). Aiken (ex Navy officer) may feel he has little to lose.

                              Prediction: Belfast South SDLP gain from DUP; Foyle SDLP gain from SF. Others unchanged. New total: DUP 9, SF 6, SDLP 2, Ind U 1

                              Pebble: it's an old gag. Fermanagh & South Tyrone's result is already in with a 103% turnout,
                              Interesting prediction for South Belfast - Hanna certainly a strong contender, but the relative parity between SDLP and Alliance would appear to favour Pengelly. Dodds benefited last time out from the absence of a unionist challenger, so could be vulnerable to Finucane on this occasion. The UUP won South Antrim a mere four years ago, so would be surprising if they at least weren't strong challengers - agree on Foyle, though.

                              Comment


                                #16
                                https://tacticalvote.co.uk/

                                http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground
                                Last edited by George C.; 29-10-2019, 12:48.

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Diable Rouge View Post
                                  Interesting prediction for South Belfast - Hanna certainly a strong contender, but the relative parity between SDLP and Alliance would appear to favour Pengelly. Dodds benefited last time out from the absence of a unionist challenger, so could be vulnerable to Finucane on this occasion. The UUP won South Antrim a mere four years ago, so would be surprising if they at least weren't strong challengers - agree on Foyle, though.
                                  Belfast South: Total Unionist vote in 2017 only 35% (including UUP and Tory). Unionism's decline is quicker/ starker there than in the more suburban areas- BT South has the youngest and most transient/ ethnically diverse population. I've tipped SDLP because Clare Hanna is better known and a stronger media voice than Alliance's Paula Bradshaw. Emma Pengelly can't rely on the other two dead-heating for second.

                                  Foyle: again, Domino Beard Eastwood is well known and a good campaigner. Elisha McCallion is a bit lacklustre.

                                  Belfast North: UUP will lose their deposit. More relevant is how many votes Green and Alliance take from SF.

                                  Antrim South: UUP won't strongly challenge cos they're skint as I mentioned

                                  Fermanagh South Tyrone: only realistic UUP hope, and it relies on help from both SDLP (running a good campaign) and DUP (not running at all)

                                  Down North: Sylvia Hermon will probably stand and win for one last spell
                                  Last edited by Duncan Gardner; 29-10-2019, 12:11.

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by George C. View Post
                                    A website that tells me who to vote for?? Well, that's always helpful. Saves me having to decide which is the best party, I can just click on a link!

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by pebblethefish View Post

                                      A website that tells me who to vote for?? Well, that's always helpful. Saves me having to decide which is the best party, I can just click on a link!
                                      TBF, not every voter is going to be clued in to the electoral history of their constituency.

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        The Graun showing its colours early, focusing on discomfort that the Labour PLP have with supporting the election and quoting people saying that their MPs will ignore the whip and try to stop it.

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          Labour may reject the programme motion, stymying the process again.

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            Lord Ashcroft showing his true colours:

                                            https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1189171951002148865

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              I presume the proposed constituency boundary changes will not apply? My part of the Huddersfield outskirts was meant to leave Colne Valley and be absorbed into the main Huddersfield seat, but that was in 2020 and not even sure it got passed. Weren't they meant to be slimming down to 600 MPs from 650, hence my change?

                                              Anyway, happy enough to stay as it's a key marginal, went Labour last time after 30 years as a bellwether seat (electing same MP as the election winners). The previous defeated Tory MP is standing again, which is unusual nowadays.

                                              Could be an interesting time if we have storms/floods around polling day. And a proposed postal strike could make the postal votes a bit dicey.

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                No boundary changes implemented this time.

                                                Though 5 more years of Tories, who knows.

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  Labour to back amendments lowering the voting age to 16, and extending the franchise to EU nationals, but considered unlikely that either will be selected by the Speaker.

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