European Elections 2019

[Patrick Thistle]

Apologies, Patrick. Typo.

So you think a Blairist position on the EU would have won tonight?

Define "won". Labour have dithered. They have been second to the punch on everything. All their talking heads on the BBC right now are saying they fucked up. They haven't taken the fight to the out and out racists and fascists. Instead they've chased this mirage that loads of people want to leave the EU at any cost.

If looks like Plaid, the Greens, and even the ultimate class traitors, the Lib Dems, have done very well on an unabashed pro remain platform. Would Labour have done better with that platform? Maybe. I doubt they would have done worse.

[Patrick Thistle]

Adam from Plaid claiming Wales has gone Remain now.

First time Plaid have overtaken Labour in their 90 year history.

[Janik]

So you think a Blairist position on the EU would have won tonight?

Labour were the only party in a position to unite the Remain vote, which, as has been pointed out, is cumulatively higher than the Leave one. I wouldn't call that Blairist particularly. In fact the all things to all men policy adopted seems much more his sort of focus-group created empty-marketing speak vacuity.

It's hard to imagine Labour could have done any worse than with the path they opted for, which has seen them suffer defections from both wings. Not quite to the same extend as the Tories (who on earth voted for them on Thursday apart from the Tim Nice-But-Dims?), but a similar problem. So pretty well any other strategy, really.

[Nefertiti2]

Patrick mentioned Blair.



i see the results of a European election which no-one (except Farage) could admit to preparing for until less than a month away to be only helpful as a proxy second referendum.
Would like to see the stats on that. Clearly has been used by many to attack Labour. Will that last in a General election. I doubt it. But I'd love to have one, and without one the country can't move forward.

[Fussbudget]

But we don't know there was a transfer. They could well be different people. E.g Labour voters last time not bothering and people who didn't bother last time going out just to vote Brexit (we know people went to vote Leave who never vote in other elections)

You know, I was going to say that was really unlikely here where the results are similar to Hull's, but actually looking at it again it's definitely possible (especially on a turnout of 25%). And unlike in Hull we've had a notable increase in Lib Dem and Chuk (??) vote which adds up almost exactly to the share lost by Labour:

Middlesbrough:
Brex 44.8% (+44.8)
Lab 20.9% (-14.6)
Lib Dems 11.5% (+8.4)
UKIP 6.3% (-30.3)
Chuk 5.9% (+5.9)
Greens 5.5% (+1.4)
Tories 5.2% (-10.4)

[Patrick Thistle]

In terms of defections I've already said I voted Plaid. I was a solid Labour voter pretty much all my life. It's anecdata and just one vote but make of it what you will.

Labour stood for nothing in this election. You may as well have just drawn a cock and balls on your ballot than vote for them.

[Patrick Thistle]

Patrick mentioned Blair.

Only because of your aside at Shrewsbury. You asked what would make it vote Labour. I can't help it if you find the answer unpalatable

i see the results of a European election which no-one (except Farage) could admit to preparing for until less than a month away to be only helpful as a proxy second referendum.
Would like to see the stats on that. Clearly has been used by many to attack Labour. Will that last in a General election. I doubt it. But I'd love to have one, and without one the country can't move forward.

Yep!

We need a General Election and a 2nd referendum. I don't think we can have just one.

[Nefertiti2]

I meant what would make Shrewsbury vote Labour in an EU election in the context of Brexit.

I'd agree that both a General Election and a second referendum are both necessary.
(Odd how many 2nd referendum-ers oppose a General election. Especially as there's no way you can have one without the toher.

[San Bernardhinault]

Among the good news today is that Magid Magid got himself elected.

The media might end up spinning this as a win for Farage, but it's really basically been a good night so far for Remain sentiment and a poor night for Hard Brexit.

[Amor de Cosmos]

From here it appears:

Positives:

The Green vote appears to be up across most of Europe.

The Lib Dems have become the party of old-school (remain) Tories. The right-wing mouth-frothers have coalesced around the Brexit party.

The Conservative party is effectively dead, if not quite buried.

This should be an open goal for Labour but it appears they're about to sky their advantage into row Z.

[Patrick Thistle]

I meant what would make Shrewsbury vote Labour in an EU election in the context of Brexit.

Hmmm. I don't live there so I can't say for certain.

But as nowhere seems to be voting Labour in droves I guess whatever would work everywhere else? I can't see why Salopians would have unique reasons not to vote Labour.

[Patrick Thistle]

I'd agree that both a General Election and a second referendum are both necessary.
(Odd how many 2nd referendum-ers oppose a General election. Especially as there's no way you can have one without the toher.

Not sure which way round to do it. Ref first then GE with parties knowing what they have to deliver seems the sensible option.

GE first and you'll get parties gaining seats on platforms that won't be deliverable.

Votes on the same day would be a clusterfuck.

[Nefertiti2]

But how do you get a referendum without a majority for one in the House of Commons?

[MsD]

Labour/Lib Dem/Green votes added together outnumber the Brexits.

[Amor de Cosmos]

Labour/Lib Dem/Green votes added together outnumber the Brexits.

How, and how much, would a GE reflect this vote though? Will Brexit run candidates or try and colonise the Tories? Will the Greens get anything like the respective number of seats they did today, or the Lib Dems?

[Come along, Min]

Labour/Lib Dem/Green votes added together outnumber the Brexits.

[WOM]

Troll under the bridge! Troll under the bridge!

[MsD]

Huw Edwards' hair looks quite good tonight. Good job, hair and makeup people.

[MsD]

Luke's post is actually linking to Corbyn's statement, which I endorse (or approve of, he doesn't run things past me).

[ursus arctos]

Perhaps for you, but for me it just opens my account"s homepage.

[ursus arctos]

Here is a look at the projected overall results, from @EuropeElects, based on their own research, the BBCs results and those in the European Parliament website. Here are some of the headlines to take note of:

The Greens/EFA block has had a big boost. It looks set to increase its seats by 50% in the parliament from 50 in 2014 to 75 seats.

The Centre-left: S&D grouping has been significantly weakened. It is projected to lose 50 seats in the 751-seat chamber, going from 191 in 2014, to a projected 141 now.

The Centre-right: EPP (European Peoples Party) are also big losers, projected to shrink from 221 seats down to 165.

The Liberals: ALDE (Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe, including Emanuel Macron’s Renaissance party) are projected to increase their presence in the parliament from 67 to 115 sets.

The Rightwing: ENF/EAPN (this is right-wing populist alliance block, including Italy’s Matteo Salvini plus MEPs from other rightwing parties, like Alternative for Germany , Finns Party, and the Danish People’s Party) look set to hold 74 seats, up from 37.

The stated goal of the group is to challenge the power of the governing bloc, including a push for tighter immigration and border policies.

[ursus arctos]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132807792304295938

[ursus arctos]

I have no idea why that it isn't displaying Europe Elects' projection of the entire EP, but it seems to work if one clicks on the text.

[ursus arctos]

[dddd]

You see, in a vote on European matters, I find it hard to understand why anyone would vote Labour. If you want to remain in the EU, you'd be barking mad to vote Labour. If you want to leave the EU, you'd also be barking mad to vote Labour.

Because it was an election for the European Parliament, and I want the most left MEPs possible. Brexit doesn't come into it.