Corbyn and Labour - what next?

[Lucy Waterman]

I don't think TAB is trolling, but I understand that if you believe passionately in something, it must appear that anyone who doesn't is operating in bad faith.

[Nefertiti2]

I’m not sure if thatÂ’s directed at me or at TAB. Unfortunately not all areas of the U.K. hasnÂ’t benefited from EU membership in the way that the majority of Ireland has, and therefore making the case for remaining is more difficult here, particularly in the context of First past the post, a solid conservative vote, and an extremely partisan media.

I donÂ’t see what insulting the intelligence of John McDonnell contributes to the discussion.

[Lang Spoon]

Hang on, Wales and NE England receive tons in structural funds, that the UK govt will never meet post Brexit. The UK govt might not like to publicize which infrastructure projects receive EU funds like you'd see in Ireland, but without it transport in Wales would be even more fucked.

[Duncan Gardner]

Berba has simply widened the target of his trolling. Once merely Unionists, it now includes the entire populations of NI and Britain, football managers from border towns and sundry others. Remember almost all the anti Irish digs here are from Irish posters

Assuming a core Tory vote of 35%, a steady 5 for Nats and Unis and no less than 10 combined for mid sized parties, the max lead possible for Labour is about 15

[San Bernardhinault]

Lammy's speech and Wingco's opening post are both great.

This from Nef I fundamentally disagree with "and therefore making the case for remaining is more difficult here, particularly in the context of First past the post, a solid conservative vote, and an extremely partisan media"

Surely having all the cards stacked against means that it becomes more imperative to make the case. Indeed, one of the things that was center of the Corbyn message when he was elected was that he was honest and let people know the truth, that he was not a triangulating mealy-mouthed Blairite who changed his message to make sure he didn't offend Mondeo-Man. He wouldn't have said "Let's not make the case against the Iraq War, because the partisan media and the large majority of conservative voters in Britain will make it hard to push that line", and I don't see why that's materially different from arguing to remain in the EU against a wall of conservative bullshit.

This is the place where I think Wingco's "Conservative own 90%, Labour own 10%" may be true, but this is Labour's 10% - Labour are really the only organisation who can make the case for remaining, and make it public, and make it consistently, and demand to be heard in the media. They are the ones who should be trying to change public opinion, rather than waiting for public opinion to magically change in a vacuum of arguments for the EU and lead the Labour party.

[Nefertiti2]

I l didn’t say that they shouldn’t make the case. Objectively it is more difficult, and it seems to me that any analysis has to consider the specifics of the situation.

Rhetoric which ignores the facts on the ground and doesn’t have a strategy for changing things is not much help to anyone.

i accept that much of the little investment in deprived areas has come from the EU- some good and some less so. Bit that doesn’t alter the fact that 9 of the 10 most deprived areas in the EU are in the U.K. and only Romania matches us for the percentage in poverty.

Austerity- or the austerity here- may not be the EU’s fault, but it is the failure of the political class inGovernment post crash which has for the most part both imposed austerity and backed remain.

[Lucy Waterman]

Rhetoric which ignores the facts on the ground and doesn’t have a strategy for changing things is not much help to anyone.

Now that's a Labour message I could get behind.

[Nefertiti2]

But the Labour Party ( If that’s what we’re discussing) has it’s of policy, from housing to schools to buses.

[Gerontophile]

The apostrophes are missing from every other post. I'm on a laptop. Nef, are you using a mobile phone?

[Nefertiti2]

I was, Gero, yes.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

I'm not trolling. I'm very serious. I think that the current labour leadership position on Brexit is so bad, it is only explicable by stupidity or malice.

This is a very good review of the main issues.

[Tubby Isaacs]

that doesn’t alter the fact that 9 of the 10 most deprived areas in the EU are in the U.K

It isn't remotely a fact.

This is what you're thinking of.

https://fullfact.org/economy/does-uk...rthern-europe/

It's not very good, but it's Northern Europe only, the number's out of date and it depends a lot on how you define "region". Compared with eg France we define very small areas as regions in an EU context, and it's very different to how we define regions usually ourselves. "Yorkshire and Humber" is usually regarded as a region- it's 4 regions in this context. So is SW England. SW England would come out as a fairly well off region. Splitting it into 4 isolates Cornwall as a poor region. Makes a lot of difference.

[Nefertiti2]

Cornwall is a very poor region, yes. That is a fact.

[Nefertiti2]

I'm not trolling. I'm very serious. I think that the current labour leadership position on Brexit is so bad, it is only explicable by stupidity or malice.

This is a very good review of the main issues.

The first referendum on the Treaty of Lisbon held on 12 June 2008 was rejected by the Irish electorate, by a margin of 53.4% to 46.6%, with a turnout of 53%.^[5]

The second referendum on the Treaty of Lisbon held on 2 October 2009 and the proposal was approved by 67.1% to 32.9%, with a turnout of 59%.^[6]


There is law and there is politics and they are not always the same. Article 50 can be extended, for example. Which the Labour is now to arguing for, but that has to be done when it's clear time has run out.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Cornwall is a very poor region, yes.

It's poor, but it's not a region for most of our purposes. And might not be one at all the way other countries slice up their data for the EU.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Who are these people who are going to jump ship from Labour because it's moved against May's deal too quickly?

[Nefertiti2]

All the people who voted leave. And the right wing Labour Mp's in leave areas like Caroline Flint.

[Nefertiti2]

It's poor, but it's not a region for most of our purposes. And might not be one at all the way other countries slice up their data for the EU.

It's only SIX and not NINE. You've convinced me.

[Nefertiti2]

both within the margin of error of course, but still.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1083870608100917248

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1083874169312432129

[Nefertiti2]

Apologies for the source but Survation only have a video and not this slide which is worth a little of everyone's time.

https://twitter.com/EL4JC/status/1083875016196927488

[Tubby Isaacs]

It's only SIX and not NINE. You've convinced me.

"In the EU"? Zero.

So that poll there says Labour are 1 point down to the Tories in an election that isn't happening anyway if they have a good policy that would instead of a bad one which the EU will knock back in the campaign. I'll go with having a good policy.

[Tubby Isaacs]

That isn't a "4 point swing to the Tories" either, is it?

[Nefertiti2]

The poll seems to suggest that Labout would do worse if it called for a referendum

38- 41 versus 40-39 means a difference of 4 points

[San Bernardhinault]

Are we now arguing that Labour should push for shitty policies on the grounds of those policies giving a hypothetical 4 point swing in a poll?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Ah right, that is 4. Apologies. I was thinking of a 2 percent swing.

What's Labour's policy under the headline scenario anyway? I thought it was still to be decided by members?