Not all North American elections are eighteen month-long farces. No, up here in the Narco-Petro Superpower, we keep our farces down to a mercifully short five weeks. The Lizard King, Stephen Harper, will by all accounts be heading to the GG to seek a dissolution of the house tomorrow - projected election date is October 14.
The left is splintered: the Greens, newly bolstered by an ex-Liberal MP declaring himself Green and thus making himself the party's first MP, are eating into the New Democrats' vote. This could help the centrist Liberals, who are running on an ambitious "Green Shift" platform, which suggests a large shift in taxation from income to carbon. But they've been beset with poor organization, a leader with a weak public persona, and fundraising problems. By contrast, the governing Tories (they have had a working minority for the past 2.5 years) are flush with cash and their leader and his entourage are very, very wily.
All things being equal, we're likely to see another Tory minority: the Tories don't really think they can snatch a majority, but with a deteriorating economy and a few (fairly minor) scandals ready to bubble away once Parliament reconvenes, it's safer to go now than later.
The wildcard is Quebec. After 40 years of more or less constantly being on the brink of fucking off, everyone's coming to the conclusion that this really isn't vaguely imminent. So, why exactly would they need those 50-odd Bloc Quebecois MPs in Ottawa to pave the way to sovereignty? Especially after their mother-party, the Parti Quebecois, got its ass handed to it in the last provincial election, finishing third after they belatedly realised that rural Quebec wasn't quite so enamoured of nationalism as to vote for an openly gay premier with a history of holding coke parties in his office as a cabinet minister. So after 15 years where the Bloc had a majority of seats in the province, things are up in the air: as many as 30 seats could change hands in the province this cycle - the Tories, who suckhole to the nationalists something fierce, are likeliest to gain, but some polls give the Liberals a good chance and the NDP have for the first time ever actually recruited themselves some francophone candidates with a chance of winning.
I know that OTF, along with most of the Western world, is just brimming (nay, frothing) with excitement over this election, and so I will do my best to keep you all updated on developments as they occur all across our fair country, from Dildo, Newfoundland to St. Louis du Ha! Ha!, Quebec to Head-Smashed-in-Buffalo-Jump, Alberta. AdC, Linus and WoM will, I hope, be joining me to provide election analysis from their necks of the woods (BC, Quebec, and that semi-mythical land known as "Scarborough", respectively). I'm hoping to convince ace foreign correspondent Reed to throw in an imporessionistic piece or two during his flying visit to Toronto, which may well coincide with the first of our leaders' debates.
For our other American cousins - watch how fast we count our votes. Three hours, max. You could learn a thing or two. For the rest of you: prepare to have the names of crucial swing seats seared into your mind...Mississauga West, Laval Centre, Vancouver-Sunshine Coast...a whole continent's worth of excitement awaits!
The left is splintered: the Greens, newly bolstered by an ex-Liberal MP declaring himself Green and thus making himself the party's first MP, are eating into the New Democrats' vote. This could help the centrist Liberals, who are running on an ambitious "Green Shift" platform, which suggests a large shift in taxation from income to carbon. But they've been beset with poor organization, a leader with a weak public persona, and fundraising problems. By contrast, the governing Tories (they have had a working minority for the past 2.5 years) are flush with cash and their leader and his entourage are very, very wily.
All things being equal, we're likely to see another Tory minority: the Tories don't really think they can snatch a majority, but with a deteriorating economy and a few (fairly minor) scandals ready to bubble away once Parliament reconvenes, it's safer to go now than later.
The wildcard is Quebec. After 40 years of more or less constantly being on the brink of fucking off, everyone's coming to the conclusion that this really isn't vaguely imminent. So, why exactly would they need those 50-odd Bloc Quebecois MPs in Ottawa to pave the way to sovereignty? Especially after their mother-party, the Parti Quebecois, got its ass handed to it in the last provincial election, finishing third after they belatedly realised that rural Quebec wasn't quite so enamoured of nationalism as to vote for an openly gay premier with a history of holding coke parties in his office as a cabinet minister. So after 15 years where the Bloc had a majority of seats in the province, things are up in the air: as many as 30 seats could change hands in the province this cycle - the Tories, who suckhole to the nationalists something fierce, are likeliest to gain, but some polls give the Liberals a good chance and the NDP have for the first time ever actually recruited themselves some francophone candidates with a chance of winning.
I know that OTF, along with most of the Western world, is just brimming (nay, frothing) with excitement over this election, and so I will do my best to keep you all updated on developments as they occur all across our fair country, from Dildo, Newfoundland to St. Louis du Ha! Ha!, Quebec to Head-Smashed-in-Buffalo-Jump, Alberta. AdC, Linus and WoM will, I hope, be joining me to provide election analysis from their necks of the woods (BC, Quebec, and that semi-mythical land known as "Scarborough", respectively). I'm hoping to convince ace foreign correspondent Reed to throw in an imporessionistic piece or two during his flying visit to Toronto, which may well coincide with the first of our leaders' debates.
For our other American cousins - watch how fast we count our votes. Three hours, max. You could learn a thing or two. For the rest of you: prepare to have the names of crucial swing seats seared into your mind...Mississauga West, Laval Centre, Vancouver-Sunshine Coast...a whole continent's worth of excitement awaits!
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