The Brexit Thread

[Benjm]

The situation is reported as being that the UK can unilaterally cancel Article 50 but only the EU can grant a postponement if requested. They said again yesterday that they don't want to extend it past the European Parliament elections later in the spring.

[Tubby Isaacs]

One of May's red lines is the CU. Labour's isn't.

A customs union where the UK co-decides trade deals, which isn't happening. Though the Labour spokesman yesterday (Nick Symonds-Thomas seemed to be walking that back a bit by claiming Turkey had a say on trade deals).

[Sean of the Shed]

EU knows all too well that there is no single deal that will get through the Commons.

Brexit is done.

UK needs to move on.

They won't say as much though. To do so would be an admission that the only option besides no Brexit is no deal.

[anton pulisov]

One of May's red lines is the CU. Labour's isn't.

But yesterday's deal essentially keeps the UK in the CU indefinitely, until flying magic unicorns that can police an invisible border are invented.

[anton pulisov]

The situation is reported as being that the UK can unilaterally cancel Article 50 but only the EU can grant a postponement if requested. They said again yesterday that they don't want to extend it past the European Parliament elections later in the spring.

Haha, love it. And the UK was one of the main authors of Art 50

[DCI Harry Batt]

It's very clear that an extension needs agreement, it says so in A50 itself. We did this ages ago. It's just what it is. There's no presentation about it.

Separately, the court has decided that the UK can revoke unilaterally. This is not covered in A50, hence needing the court to rule.

[ursus arctos]

Perhaps we should take turns posting that every five pages . . .

[DCI Harry Batt]

Indeed.

[George C.]

https://twitter.com/RaynerSkyNews/st...395741184?s=19

[ad hoc]

Marina Hyde has surpassed even herself today. Line after line of beautifully crafted put downs.

Just shading it for my favourite would be

As for the more provisional wing of the People’s Vote, we no longer need to computer-model the answer to the question: what would happen if you gave everyone on Henman Hill crystal meth?

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...es-opportunity

[Tubby Isaacs]

But yesterday's deal essentially keeps the UK in the CU indefinitely, until flying magic unicorns that can police an invisible border are invented.

This is a good point.

Do you (or anyone else) know what the difference between May's customs deal and membership of the Customs Union is? My understanding is that there isn't all that much. How tenable is it going to be for Labour to vote down her deal over these differences?

[anton pulisov]

It's essentially the same. You are either in a Customs Union or not. And to keep an open border, they have to be in the Customs Union. Any change to the status has to be agreed bilaterally according to the May deal. Ireland or the EU are never going to agree to the UK leaving the CU, so it is de facto permanent.

[ursus arctos]

That Hyde piece is utterly brilliant

AP's point is why the Tories keep trying to get the backstop time-limited and why the 27 laugh and tell them to pound sand.

[anton pulisov]

May came up with a deal that was good enough for half the Tories and nearly all of Labour. It was the only deal that had any chance of making it through the House of Commons. It agreed with Labour's stated red lines: stay in single market and customs union. Labour chose to use the split in the Tory party to humiliate May and try and force an election. Which, you know, fair enough. But let's not pretend that any of this is about Brexit anymore.

[Lucy Waterman]

I don't think extending Article 50 is politically palatable for the Conservatives.

[ursus arctos]

It's either that, No Deal or a General Election

[Snake Plissken]

It wasn’t even close to being acceptable to Labour.

[anton pulisov]

It wasn’t even close to being acceptable to Labour.

I still don't get what they want that wasn't in it. Can somebody explain?

[Diable Rouge]

May now says she has no intention of ever contemplating a customs union.

[Moonlight Shadow]

Nothing has changed essentially, neither leader wants a referendum, neither wants to change their (very similar) red lines, neither leader wants to collaborate.

No point talking about extensions, etc, as things stand it's all speed ahead for No Deal

[Benjm]

Indeed.

So forum protocol now is, when someone asks a question, to be a supercilious prick about it rather than offer an answer? Duly noted.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Bazza Gardiner says Seven months minimum for a People's Vote, hence their GE call.

If that's right, it's not happening this year, if ever.

Well then that suggests that last august was the latest moment to switch to asking for a second referendum, and that any policy arrived at after that point, that involved trying the other options exhaustively first was simply a fudge to keep the members happy, while ensuring that a second referendum couldn't happen.

Which is exactly what it looked like at the time

The reason that most people here are giving out about labour is that a) the Tories are fucking insane b) their position on Brexit is impossible, but is being implemented c) there is no way of influencing them or getting them to change course as a lump. But they're the tories, that's what they're like. Their MPs are either too Deluded and crazy, Too nakedly evil, or too craven to do anything about it. But they are at the very least being true to their core values.

The Labour party is the only meaningfully large group in the UK that can change their policy on Brexit. It is the party that most people on here would be broadly expected to support, and it is supposed to be the one providing opposition to the fucking shitshow that the Tories are running. Instead it simply seems that a leadership made up of "Eurosceptics" has managed to use procedural means to thwart the will of their party members into running down the clock until their preferred choice of a second referendum is off the table.

See the problem here is that there are people on here, and throughout Britain who are counseling patience, or loyalty to the Party Line on the grounds that they hope that the leadership will ultimately do the right thing, and more importantly is motivated to achieve the same outcome that you desire. When labour party members realize the degree to which they have been fucked by their leadership, it's going to be much worse than the fallout from the Iraq war. (well the fallout in the UK anyway)

[Lucy Waterman]

Entirely correct.

[Tubby Isaacs]

It's essentially the same. You are either in a Customs Union or not. And to keep an open border, they have to be in the Customs Union. Any change to the status has to be agreed bilaterally according to the May deal. Ireland or the EU are never going to agree to the UK leaving the CU, so it is de facto permanent.

Thanks, that's my understanding.

I'd be extremely wary of voting the "deal" down on that basis.

[Moonlight Shadow]

Our best hope is that May really is motivated by the good of the country rather than the Tory party (I know...) and revokes Art 50 before resigning and quitting politics. Preferably on the 28th of March. Absolutely nailed on "Jezza" will blow a fuse if that happens...