The Brexit Thread

[Tubby Isaacs]

He'd be stupid because, if he's trying to get to the top but fronting up such a terrible strategy, he'd be harming his own career.

Could be thinking Labour will benefit electorally, as Janik suggested could be the calculation.

[Etienne]

I think it's very easy to say Labour should back the second ref because Brexit will be a disaster, but (while fully agreeing it will be) I don't think it is that easy.

The fundamental fact is that the vote in 2016 said we should leave, and it takes something extraordinary to ignore that. The "it was only advisory" doesn't work, everyone worked on the basis that it would be implemented. The "it was based on a tissue of lies and fantasies" argument is true, but insufficient. The 2015 General Election (to choose only the most egregious recent example) was won on a tissue of lies and fantasies too and had disastrous consequences but we still had to let Cameron form a government. The "it was based on an almost wholesale disregard for electoral law" is by far the strongest argument, morally, but I don't think would have much traction politically or electorally. I don't think that the "democracy didn't come to an end in 2016" is as strong an argument as those making it seem to think - it's perfectly democratic to have a second ref after the results of the first have been implemented if people think that it was a mistake, I'm not sure it's democratic to reverse the result before they have been put into practice, and I think one of the reasons support for the 2nd ref remains low is that lots of people who want to remain acknowledge on some level that it is not particularly democratic to set aside the results of the first referendum.

So I don't think Labour have any choice but to accept the result (at least rhetorically) no matter how fucking stupid it is (and it's very fucking stupid), unless they want to be in a position of rejecting a democratic vote.

Which leaves them three main avenues
i) enthusiastically accept the result and try to create a Brexit that fits with their political priorities (eg a Labour equivalent of May's Lancaster House). This is a very bad strategy because a) Brexit is fucking stupid, b) they aren't in govenment c) they would alienate a large number of their members
ii) follow a strategy of rhetorically accepting the result while hoping that a combination of a) the fucking stupidity of Brexit, b) the colossal negotiating incompetence of the government and weakness of its negotiating position and c) reality might persuade sufficient Leave voters to swing round to allow them to reverse the vote without alienating a sizeable swathe of their electorate.
iii) follow a strategy of accepting the result, while arguing that it was misguided and advocating for all the good things about the EU (FoM, SM, CU, workers rights, environmental protections etc) hoping that telling people they were wrong would for the first time in history persuade them that they were wrong, with the goal of either a) an overwhelming surge in public opposition to Brexit bringing it to a halt (most likely via a 2nd ref) or support for a referendum to rejoin as soon as possible following departure.

The Lib Dems and the Greens have obviously both followed the third option, with little impact, which suggest that Labour have probably chosen wisely to go with option ii. This isn't to say that the Lib Dems and Greens have chosen unwisely, they are trying to appeal to different constituencies.

Basically David Cameron, the Tory press, the supine BBC and the xenophobes have landed us in a situation where every route involves copious amounts of shit, and Labour are in an uneviable position in having to navigate it while ensuring that 40% of the electorate will consider voting for them at a future election.

Sorry for all the subordinate clauses.

[Duncan Gardner]

Well set out by Etienne. Whatever Labour or other parties do the result will be widespread anger including disillusion with government and politics.

However...the Ref while hugely important isnt the only fundamental issue. Weve faced down such anger before. And also seen politics re-align...

[ad hoc]

I think Etienne's post is the clearest and best explanation and outlining of the possibilities available to Labour and the overall context in which they fit

[Nefertiti2]

Agreed- there's a further context where large elements of the People's Vote Campaign seem to be more committed to attacking Corbyn's Labour party than finding a workable solution to the referendum result.

[Etienne]

I think that the by and large the People's Vote people's motives are more honourable than you and Snake think. For the vast majority of them, I'm sure that their concern for who leads the Labour party is a long way behind their concern for stopping a disastrous Brexit by the most obvious mechanism possible. I do think that, as above, they don't give sufficient credit for the difficulties of Labour's position and the fact that mostly their personal politics are different from Corbyn naturally influences their willingness to abuse him for not supporting their preferred course of action.

[Nefertiti2]

Alistair Campbell?

[hobbes]

I would love to be able to say that that indiscriminate ridicule against Britain and the British as a whole is unfair on the 48%. But actually, given that most of the 48% have been showing that they barely grasp the magnitude of the disaster, by sticking with "jobs first Brexit" Labour rather than supporting one of the political parties which have been working hard to try to reverse the castastrophe, it's pretty fair to much of the 48% too.

The fucking brass balls of it. It's the Lib Dem's fucking fault we're in this mess. Them and their craven toadying to the Tories for a couple of crumbs from the table. Pathetic, supine, homophobe tolerating cunts each and every one.
I hate the Tories as much as anyone, but they are and were just following their fundamental nature. Hyenas gotta hyena. But the Lib Dems talked a good game convincing a lot of good people they were a decent punt, but at the first hint of a Tory jangling some keys they rolled over and begged. I hate the Tories, but I wouldn't piss on a Liberal Democrat if they were on fire.

[Gert from the Well]

Etienne is spot on here, Labour are damned if they do and damned if they don't.

Maybe, just leaving it to the Tory party to implode under the weight of its own stupidity is the only path?

My main concern it that whatever they do it does not unwittingly help the rise of a far-right populist movement. Therefore they have to keep their leave supporting voters on side. As to what they will inherit is up to anyone's guess.

[Tubby Isaacs]

If the public doesn't want and won't wear a second referendum undoing Brexit, why are they going to want and wear yet another general election that undoes Brexit?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Etienne is spot on here, Labour are damned if they do and damned if they don't.

Maybe, just leaving it to the Tory party to implode under the weight of its own stupidity is the only path?

My main concern it that whatever they do it does not unwittingly help the rise of a far-right populist movement. Therefore they have to keep their leave supporting voters on side. As to what they will inherit is up to anyone's guess.

The trouble is that real time Tory implosion will likely bring No Deal, which will be good for the far right too.

I'm not being very encouraging, am I?

[Flynnie]

The trouble is that real time Tory implosion will likely bring No Deal, which will be good for the far right too.

I'm not being very encouraging, am I?

That goes both ways, plenty of them will be like pigs in shit at no deal and when the consequences are felt, there will be a backlash towards rejoining the EU. Ending up in the greatest self-own they'll ever make, the UK supinely accepting the euro and consigning sterling to history.

[Nefertiti2]

Theresa has a plan

https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1074716019200061445

[Gert from the Well]

The trouble is that real time Tory implosion will likely bring No Deal, which will be good for the far right too.

I'm not being very encouraging, am I?

There's not much to be encouraged about - we can just hope the bonfire of the Tories occurs after they fail to get a no-deal. I'm becoming depressingly resigned to the belief that the least worst outcome is some form of soft Brexit. But then again, you could argue that ultimately all elections are a matter of choosing the lesser of two evils.

[Lang Spoon]

Holy moley. Youse all really ought to stock up on the tinned goods right now.

Good faith means shafting the Irish, doesn’t it?

[Gert from the Well]

Certainly risks in a referendum. Could the government pursue Remain or even the Single Market if there was mass abstention by Brexiters?

Me and you in a tank is genuinely the best option.

If there's room in the tank can you swing past Cambourne on the way?

We will need a name for our insurgent outfit - can I suggest The Luther Blissett Brigade?

[Moonlight Shadow]

I wonder if at some point the EU will simply take the deal off the table and let things run its course...

[Nefertiti2]

Corbyn says he'll table a motion of no confidence in May as Prime Minister,

[ursus arctos]

For the second time today, though evidently this time it counts.

Though not really, because it isn't a motion of No Confidence in the Government.

[Nefertiti2]

Of course it means that those Conservatives who support her yet voted against her in the confidence motion last week have a higher standard of leadership for the Conservative Party than they do for the country...

[Lang Spoon]

What larks.

[Nefertiti2]

Either the ERG backs her- which means that May's recent attempts to portray herself as "sensible" and run down the clock fail- or they don't- in which case she's that much closer to Mexit

[anton pulisov]

That goes both ways, plenty of them will be like pigs in shit at no deal and when the consequences are felt, there will be a backlash towards rejoining the EU. Ending up in the greatest self-own they'll ever make, the UK supinely accepting the euro and consigning sterling to history.

At various times I've thought that this is the EU plan

[SouthdownRebel]

I suspect Corbyn believes the deal has to be off the table before a proper motion of no confidence can be won. Today was about forcing May to set another date for the vote.

[Nefertiti2]

May has to decide whether to allocate time for the debate.

https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1074732057975291904