The Brexit Thread

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

Having now seen May's speech this morning and the renewed evidence of her fanatical devotioon to the lie that "the British people want us to get on with delivering Brexit" (for which in fact most polls no longer show a majority), I'm not sure we're any better off with her than with one of the nutters as PM.

One very scary ride with a possibly happy outcome: the cunt in twat's clothing (c. Purves Grundy) becomes new leader, prompting a sufficient number (say 4 or 5) of extreme sane-wing Tory MPs to leave the party in protest that the Government no longer has a parliamentary majority even with the DUP bigots' support.

[Moonlight Shadow]

No other reason for this than to make it even harder to stop the default No Deal to happen.

[NHH]

I can't see May losing for a moment; the issue is how many vote against her and damage her credibility. I can easily see her getting 75% which would count as resounding, but that leaves 25% opposed to her, and the 75% will be utterly fractious.

This best bit is that this avoids Labour wasting a no-confidence motion which the Tories then have to rally round. It gives the Tories the chance to rally round but to do so in a way without consequence for them. In a week's time, they'll be at each other's throats all over again, and the intensity of the desire to stay in Government could well decrease with the constant furious whipping and sniping, so that when the no-conf motion is tabled, it's much more in play, rather than - as Kinnock did in 1990 - a way for the Tories to remember who their real enemy was.

[Ginger Yellow]

Having now seen May's speech this morning and the renewed evidence of her fanatical devotioon to the lie that "the British people want us to get on with delivering Brexit" (for which in fact most polls no longer show a majority), I'm not sure we're any better off with her than with one of the nutters as PM.

We're much better off with one of the nutters as PM, as that makes it much more likely that the choice before MPs is no deal or remain. With May or someone like her, the tactic is going to make it be bad deal or no deal/revoke, and I reckon bad deal wins that unless a lot more Tories have a spine than have heretofore demonstrated possession of one.

[Lucy Waterman]

I can't see May losing for a moment; the issue is how many vote against her and damage her credibility. I can easily see her getting 75% which would count as resounding, but that leaves 25% opposed to her, and the 75% will be utterly fractious.

She doesn’t really have any credibility to damage though. That’s not just snark, it’s actual fact. Which perversely makes it easier for her to cling on even if she wins it by one. That and she can assert that even in those circumstances, she’ll be enjoying the confidence of a far greater proportion of her parliamentary party than Corbyn does of his. Which I’d expect her to bang on about at PMQs today.

[ad hoc]

We're much better off with one of the nutters as PM, as that makes it much more likely that the choice before MPs is no deal or remain. With May or someone like her, the tactic is going to make it be bad deal or no deal/revoke, and I reckon bad deal wins that unless a lot more Tories have a spine than have heretofore demonstrated possession of one.

Except that it's not just Brexit. Think about the carnage that Mordaunt or Johnson would inflict on the country. It will make the last 5 years look like a picnic

[Ginger Yellow]

My assumption is that a nutter prime minister doesn't last long past the end of March, because either they go no deal and get kicked out by MPs when the country grinds to a halt, or, much more likely, they resign or get kicked out by the Tories when MPs vote to revoke article 50. There's not enough time to do much damage, especially with Brexit consuming all parliamentary time.

[Benjm]

I'm not sure that anything we've seen regarding May's mindset makes that a given.

She reminds me of Pope John Paul II in his final years; doggedly dragging herself towards her personal Calvary, her supposed selfless sense of duty more a manifestation of colossal vanity.

[Diable Rouge]

And even at the eleventh hour, she still manages to trounce Corbyn at PMQs.

[johnr]

Well, we all see the world through our own prism, I suppose...

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

I'll at a Wedding Present gig when the result is announced tonight and it does feel like The Moment Before Everything's Spoiled Again - we're all hoping this will all be so divisive they end up splitting in two (one of the moderates is already talking about resigning the whip if either Johnson or JRM gets it), but we all know they'll elect some grey suit least-worst (for them) option and rally round. It's the hope that kills you.

[johnr]

There was a fair chance that I was going to be the Wedding Present's drummer for a European tour about 10/12 years ago, but couldn't do it.

As you were.

[ad hoc]

Apparently she's implied that she will quit in April, or at least after Brexit and before the next election

The PM’s spokesman said she “doesn’t believe the vote today is about who leads the party to the next election. It’s about whether it’s sensible to change leader at this point in negotiations.”

[Satchmo Distel]

Thatcher did that just before she went, though.

[Lucy Waterman]

Well, we all see the world through our own prism, I suppose...

I thought he did reasonably well, though not bringing up the no confidence vote seemed an astounding miss. Though for the reasons I mentioned above, it's hard for Corbyn to make much out of it politically. In fact, the result of his own 2016 no-con vote may have ensured May's ability to cling on with a wafer-thin victory.

[Satchmo Distel]

It would make sense from a Tory POV for her to go now so that the leadership election would produce someone who had legitimacy in having won a recent contest rather than an old contest that has been discredited by her subsequent shit performance.

Her clinging on helps Labour but also the Hard Brexiteers.

[Tubby Isaacs]

She doesn’t really have any credibility to damage though. That’s not just snark, it’s actual fact. Which perversely makes it easier for her to cling on even if she wins it by one. That and she can assert that even in those circumstances, she’ll be enjoying the confidence of a far greater proportion of her parliamentary party than Corbyn does of his. Which I’d expect her to bang on about at PMQs today.

She was leading Corbyn 42-22 on Brexit, mainly I expect because she looks prime ministerial by virtue of being the prime minister. So there's important credibility to be damaged here.

[Tubby Isaacs]

World class bait and switch by Bernard Jenkin, making out that Hammond (who called people like him extremists) was referring to the "52%" who voted Brexit.

[Logan Mountstuart]

At a time of enormous political and economic jeopardy for the country, and while her party has more than pissed about for 30 months, she apparently wins question time by joking about gardeners.

Corbyn was serious, angry and factual about the pulled vote.

But May wins?

It's not just politicians ans that are stupid. The whole country and system and media is insane. Laughing stock.

[Tubby Isaacs]

John Major "won" the corresponding PMQs with a gag about privatized BT putting in Michael Portillo's extra phone lines very quickly.

[SouthdownRebel]

What do we think happens if May wins? I suspect it significantly increases the chances of her deal being passed on the basis that the Brexiteers will have shot their bolt. Does it make her position safe from a Labour no confidence motion? And what's the best outcome for remainers, if we assume that Tory members are all rabid europhobes who will vote in an ardent no-dealer given the chance?

[ursus arctos]

I would think that the margin is important.

Actually getting fewer than 48 votes for No would be humiliating for the vast majority of humans, but perhaps not for the Hard Brexiteers.

[Lucy Waterman]

The margin will be important insofar as it shows how isolated (or not) the hard Brexiters are. I don't think she will resign even with a small margin. Corbyn stayed on with 40, she can definitely stay on with 158, though both would have been unthinkable historically.

[ursus arctos]

Agreed

[Benjm]

At a time of enormous political and economic jeopardy for the country, and while her party has more than pissed about for 30 months, she apparently wins question time by joking about gardeners.

Corbyn was serious, angry and factual about the pulled vote.

But May wins?

It's not just politicians ans that are stupid. The whole country and system and media is insane. Laughing stock.

Today was a shocker, even by the usual standard of these things. Smirking buffoons. It's just a game to far too many of the participants and commentators alike. Having unwisely tried to watch Newsnight yesterday for the first time in a long while, I ended up turning it off because all the reports were soundtracked with binky-bonk comedy music of the kind that usually accompanies the unfunny bro-banter in Hawaii 5-0. What a chuckle it all is.