The Brexit Thread

[Nefertiti2]

https://twitter.com/Shambles151/status/1063024656641331205

[Ginger Yellow]

Gah, parliament.tv is down.

[Kevin S]

Graun YouTube has it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pNCSrIl2Co

[Ginger Yellow]

Soubry pointedly not committing to vote against the deal: "there is no majority for it".

[Ginger Yellow]

Hey, Bill Cash is right for once.

[Ginger Yellow]

Ha, JRM going full Mark Antony.

[Duncan Gardner]

An ex-colleague's wife is Braverman's cousin. Hopefully Sue Ella bought her currency in advance before the next trip to Mauritius to see family.

[sw2borshch]

Is that called a carashed? I have a new want.

[Duncan Gardner]

Cara-shed, carcra-shed, whatever

[Ginger Yellow]

Supposedly 84 Tory votes against, not sure what the sourcing is.

[Ginger Yellow]

Sounds like Nicky Morgan is an aye.

[Etienne]

Mark Francois (is the source of the 84 claim)

[Ginger Yellow]

Sure, but I'm not sure where he's getting it. Is there an anti-deal whatsapp group? Or is the ERG, or what?

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Is Theresa May trying to prove that words are merely signifiers with no inherent meaning?

[Nefertiti2]

she's been doing that since her two slogans were "Brexit means Brexit" and No deal is better than a bad deal"

[johnr]

Is Theresa May trying to prove that words are merely signifiers with no inherent meaning?

It is all very meta, isn't it.

As for the pound going down as Raab resigned, just goes to show how dumb the markets are - you would have thought its value would double...

(I know, markets hate instability, etc...)

[Etienne]

Well, both, I'd guess.

[Nefertiti2]

Martin Wolf in the FT

Congratulations! UK Prime Minister Theresa May has succeeded in uniting her deeply divided nation. Everybody agrees on one thing: the deal she has come up with is terrible.

For Remainers, it is evident that this quasi-permanent halfway house, which will keep the UK inside the EU’s customs area and divide Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK indefinitely, would be far worse than continued EU membership. For Leavers, it is equally evident that this very same halfway house would be far worse than a clean break.

Unity is achieved at last in the midst of Britain’s civil war over its future relationship with Europe: both sides oppose what has been agreed.

There are two possible reactions to this outcome.

The first is to argue that a deal which unites the country in horror is exactly what should have been expected and is, in fact, the least unsatisfactory imaginable outcome. It allows the UK to leave, without crashing out, and leaves room for subsequent negotiations on the future relations with the EU. The very fact that nobody is satisfied makes it the least unreasonable compromise on how to move forward. Nobody wins completely; and nobody loses completely.

The second reaction is that this deal should not and — more importantly — will not be ratified. It should not be agreed, because everybody agrees it is unsatisfactory. It will not be ratified, for the same reason.

If so, a way will need to be found to move forward that avoids a brutal rupture with the EU, with all the damaging economic and political consequences of that outcome. But that way, whatever it turns out to be, must also preserve the UK as a functioning constitutional democracy.

Squaring that circle would, in the event of a rejection of the deal reached with the EU, necessarily be the dominant focus of British politics. It would also unavoidably reopen the issue of Brexit for the other 27 members of the EU.

This might mean another referendum, a general election, a request for postponement of the departure and an attempt at a re-negotiation, or some combination of these. The one certainty is that, one way or the other, Brexit will haunt the UK’s economy and politics for the indefinite future.

Britain cannot at present resolve its relationship with the continent. This is the one clear truth. Comparisons with the 1956 Suez crisis do not get close to the mark. This is a far more significant mess than that.

[Nefertiti2]

https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/1063044537159991297

[Nefertiti2]

https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1063048135004639232

[Nefertiti2]

https://twitter.com/MehreenKhn/status/1063048201274560512

[Moonlight Shadow]

The GE thing is bizarre, if (big if) Labour were to scrape in, they would be faced with the same options. Provided Labour would not consider No deal a sane option, it leaves them either withdrawing the notification outright (by then we will know if it's possible) or going back to the people with a referendum. Both options are not considered by the leadership of Labour and however much we hear about clever strategies, they do want Brexit imo. The offer by the EU won't be improved, what is left...EEA + or otherwise which is just as pointless as the WA.

It's very enjoyable to see the Tories implode like that but it would change bugger all to the Brexit paradox if Labour got into power.

[Satchmo Distel]

There has to be a referendum with (at least) three options:

1) accept EU deal currently on offer

2) crash out

3) stay in

I think "crash out" will win because people really are that stupid and the others are divided between 1 and 3, but there should at least be a vote.

On the GE, I suppose I'd be happy with a Labour government handling that mess than a Tory one, as Labour wouldn't just cut everything and may try to use the power of the post-EU state to institute a slow recovery via investment.

[Flynnie]

There has to be a referendum with (at least) three options:

1) accept EU deal currently on offer

2) crash out

3) stay in

I think "crash out" will win because people really are that stupid and the others are divided between 1 and 3, but there should at least be a vote.

On the GE, I suppose I'd be happy with a Labour government handling that mess than a Tory one, as Labour wouldn't just cut everything and may try to use the power of the post-EU state to institute a slow recovery via investment.

You would be insane not to offer a two-stage referendum in that instance. Utterly insane.

[Flynnie]

The GE thing is bizarre, if (big if) Labour were to scrape in, they would be faced with the same options. Provided Labour would not consider No deal a sane option, it leaves them either withdrawing the notification outright (by then we will know if it's possible) or going back to the people with a referendum. Both options are not considered by the leadership of Labour and however much we hear about clever strategies, they do want Brexit imo. The offer by the EU won't be improved, what is left...EEA + or otherwise which is just as pointless as the WA.

It's very enjoyable to see the Tories implode like that but it would change bugger all to the Brexit paradox if Labour got into power.

The EEA is miles less stupid than the withdrawal agreement. The current basically turns the UK into a ruletaker while simultaneously hollowing out the services sector. At least that won't happen in the EEA.