The Brexit Thread

[Tubby Isaacs]

Nef, how far does Corbynism fly in Germany? He'd be in Die Linke if he was German.

Obviously, Labour and the SPD have some kind of "sister party" thing going on, but even so. And being in government with Merkel, if that indeed happens, isn't the best situation for a Corbynite rebirth.

[E10 Rifle]

Some of them are a bunch of establishment fools, mind. Nonetheless, it's not something you can issue pithy soundbites about, but it's screamingly obvious to all concerned that a Labour government would be easier to negotiate with over all this than the current shower. Precisely because Europe isn't the hill-to-die-on obsession for the Labour leadership that it is for others, notably the Conservative party itself

[Nefertiti2]

Nef, how far does Corbynism fly in Germany? He'd be in Die Linke if he was German.

Obviously, Labour and the SPD have some kind of "sister party" thing going on, but even so. And being in government with Merkel, if that indeed happens, isn't the best situation for a Corbynite rebirth.

The German situation is complicated. Corbyn wouldn' be in Die Linke, because they come out of the East German SED with all that goes with that. the Spd made the same journey as Blair with a corrupt New Labour under Gerhard Schröder- though they were in the Coalition with the Greens -notably Joschka Fischer who kept Germany out of Iraq. They now need to redefine themselves if they aren't to be fully Pasokified. but unions are still strong(ish) in Germany and companies like Bosch have union and works councils representation on boards. which protects them against short termism and takeover. and a greater percent of profits go to workers in wages and shorter hours. which means its more likely to remain in the economy. There's a rent culture, too. and decent public transport in most citites. And museums theatres and art galleries.

Schaueble brought in very tight fiscal controls but Germany still iinvests. it has been investing in the East for almost 30 years

But even the CSU in Bavaria are at state level far more pro state support and local banks than the tories are. internally the CDU and Labour's politics are not that dissimilar. there is also ( thank God, so far) a readiness to try and lock out the far right.

[johnr]

Aye. If not now, when?

What would it achieve to do it right now (in actual 'making a difference' terms), instead of a later date?

[johnr]

In fairness, we know from the Referendum how hard it is with the media for Labour to cut through "Tory on Tory" Brexit stories. But if Labour aren't getting properly stuck in, the Tories can get votes from Rees Mogg headbangers ("at least they've got people like him in there"), and votes for May for looking moderate and statesmanlike by comparison.

When the time comes, they'll have an argument to both.

Edit: I know this comes across as me operating in a sort of 'blind faith', and I might - we all might - live to regret that. But I have to say, I think it's working. The Tories are pulling themselves apart; Labour - mostly - isn't. Polls, schmolls - when it matters, it'll change.

[Lang Spoon]

What would it achieve to do it right now (in actual 'making a difference' terms), instead of a later date?

There’s a giant Damocles exit date hanging over us. I don’t get how it’s credible to keep saying no CU or SM and then suddenly switch if there’s an election and you have to show your hand.

[Snake Plissken]

Campbell is as connected with the media and as non-Corbyn Labour as you can possibly get. He's available at all times to spout forth on Brexit, and he straight talks as much as a Farage or a Johnson. Yet even he can't get a regular platform where Leave has a rotating media-available carousel of dicks - C4 had Hannan and Peter sodding Bone earlier in the week. To be fair, there was a Tory Baroness - Evans? Evesham? - who basically called Bone and the rest of them out as pure fantasists misleading the public. Bone Did Not Like That.

[Nefertiti2]

as Starmer hinted, in htat tweet they're planning. Labour has not only to have a comprehensive plan for the next stage, It also has to ensure there's an election. and then it has to win it.

They will face the worst shit we've ever seen. Think of the last election and double it. Anything that can be read as backing the EU against Britain will be spun as disloyalty. Anything that they can present as supporting Foreigners against Brits will be distorted and lied about by a media ready which just yesterday has show its readiness to be out and out fascist now. Corbyn's Labour can't be guaranteed even that the right of Labour will support them let alone the Ken Clarkes and Anna Soubrys. It's very tough. It needs very smart people with very good analyses and equally good political instincts. Are they up to it? they've done a reasonable job so far. But more important Labour is all we've got. Nothing else is going to save us.

[Nefertiti2]

That point about Campbell is a really good one. If IanDuncan Smith or Farage can be on the BBC anytime they want and Campbell can't it shows the nature of the lock out.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Good point about Die Linke, Nef, my bad.

I don't know anything like enough about Germany.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Campbell is as connected with the media and as non-Corbyn Labour as you can possibly get. He's available at all times to spout forth on Brexit, and he straight talks as much as a Farage or a Johnson. Yet even he can't get a regular platform where Leave has a rotating media-available carousel of dicks - C4 had Hannan and Peter sodding Bone earlier in the week. To be fair, there was a Tory Baroness - Evans? Evesham? - who basically called Bone and the rest of them out as pure fantasists misleading the public. Bone Did Not Like That.

Not Baroness (Natalie) Evans, for sure, she's the Tory leader in the lord. A hack from the New Schools Network and a Brexiter.

I can't think who it might have been.

Excellent point about Campbell. You could add quite a few people who know their Brexit stuff to the list of invisibles, without looking beyond Westminster.

This is outrageous media bias, not Labour's fault. The "opposition" they're interested in hearing from is Peter Bone. I can see, with John and Nef, that there might be good reasons to be cautious. But maybe the Opposition need to be bolder because of this media crap.

[Snake Plissken]

It was Baroness Ros Altmann.

https://www.channel4.com/news/ros-al...-game-of-bluff

[Nefertiti2]

The Bundesbank speaks - via Faisal Islam, being attacked on twitter for not tweeting good news about the fishing industry

Yet I am sceptical as to whether such a mutual recognition framework is actually possible. Moreover, a future agreement may very well be quite limited - for example, to the exchange of goods. Labour migration is likely to be excluded; at least, this has been mentioned as a red line for the UK government. And free trade in services also seems less and less likely. To quote the negotiator for the EU, Michel Barnier: "There is no place [for financial services]. There is not a single trade agreement that is open to financial services. It doesn't exist

Thus, it is not that unlikely that there will be no free trade agreement for financial services - or other services sectors, for that matter.

What would that mean for financial transactions between the UKand the EU? It would mean that the EU and the UK would trade under rules set by the World Trade Organization - where services sectors are only thinly covered.

Service providers would then have to apply for comprehensive licenses in both jurisdictions and have all the necessary elements of a fully functioning bank ready in both places.

I am very much aware that this sounds like a worst case scenario. And I very much do understand that. We are coming from a highly comfortable position: the single market and the passporting rights allow free trade in services without much legal and regulatory friction. After more than two decades of this freedom we have gotten used to it; it has become our point of reference in debates and for policy proposals.

But it is time to face the facts. The point of reference has changed since the Brexit vote. Where it was the single market and passporting, it is now trade agreements with third countries that do not accept the EU's legal jurisdiction - we all know Mr Barnier's stairway to Brexit.5 In these arrangements, the free exchange of workers and services tends to be very limited.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Fishermen were our equivalent of Appalachian coal miners. Not all that numerous, but we sure heard about them.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Year now passed since "the real fight starts here".

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Right now, the Northern irish border issue is starting to terrify me.

Essentially it boils down to this. The EU accepts that the UK voted to leave the EU. A question that simple leaves open all forms of possible relationship. For instance, it's consistent with staying in the Single Market and customs union. It's also consistent with dying of starvation, and everywhere in between. The EU doesn't particularly care, as long as the UK abides by its international agreements, and from their point of view, the Good Friday Agreement is an international agreement with an EU member state. The Good Friday agreement hinges on there being no border between the north and south, and the only way this is possible is for Northern Ireland to remain in the Customs union and the single market. (Again, this is entirely consistent with the referendum, which made no mention of such matters)

Unlike UK red lines, which are simply a matter of preference and government policy, this is an EU red line founded in law. This is an entirely different type of red line. The EU doesn't really care what the Rest of the UK does, Northern Ireland has to effectively remain in the Single Market. From the EU's point of view the UK can either treat NI as a separate region, or stay in the Single Market and CU as a whole, those are their two options.

Theresa May can't choose either option without a) pissing of the DUP, or b) being lynched in the street by Dacre's brexit brownshirts. The Problem is that if she doesn't disappoint one of these groups, then the UK will be in breach of an international agreement with an EU member state, and there will be no transitional period, and there will immediate, ultra hard brexit on the day you leave the EU. I don't know if very much attention is being paid to this issue in the UK, but this is how its all going to go wrong, because May can't go against either the DUP or her own hardliners.

This is why Labour need to say something. The tories are going to run out the clock on this, and it will be too fucking late.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Lots of people are aware of the Irish border as a problem, and a few recall Major and Blair flagging it up in the campaign. But the government have a good change of making people think it's the EU being unreasonable.

Labour having a top 2 who can't mention Ireland without being bottled off like Deacon Blue at Reading doesn't help. But somebody needs to be getting the message out.

[Tubby Isaacs]

In other news, John Mann, scourge of Labour anti-semitism, doesn't seem to have noticed the Telegraph Soros stuff.

[Moonlight Shadow]

According to a Janet Daley in the Telegraph, this is a master stroke by May, the delaying tactic and all...She also thinks the EU is like a cult/mafia/secret society and Barnier is a tool from the Germans.

This is why it's all going to end up badly, the sheer amount of nutters in a position of influence...

[Snake Plissken]

This is why Labour need to say something.

And what, exactly can they say? This is a Conservative Party civil war, all the options are contradictory and you are suggesting that Labour wade in and help one side... somehow... for some undefined benefit.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Trying to preserve the Good Friday and agreement and stop economic ruin is "helping one side in a Conservative Party civil war" is it? The sensible 20 Tory backbenchers, plus more than likely the Chancellor and a couple of others, aren't contradictory, they're right on this.

[Nefertiti2]

Labour saying something is meaningless. Labour needs to come to power.
Will the "sensible" Tory backbenchers vote against their party? I don't think so. They've had every opportunity.

[Tubby Isaacs]

We've waited years for Labour to get its straight talking, campaigning, not scared of the media, brave leader.

What rotten luck that just as we get him, the main issue before us.... requires Labour and him to lay low.

I never put too much trust in Tory rebels. Nonetheless they showed up last time, and they got a debate on EFTA this week. There are reasons to think too that the "party of business" are getting business in their ears, and more of them are amenable.

Let's assume though that they're entirely untrustworthy and won't stir. They won't be bringing Theresa May down then, will they?

[Tubby Isaacs]

That sounds a bit sarcy but I genuinely admire Corbyn and others who've created this campaigning force. Use it.

[Nefertiti2]

I think the problems are tactical and strategic.

how does Labour bring down this rotten government?

what line should Labour adopt around the EU?

I believe the only way Labour will be able to do (1) is by having an enormously detailed proposal in place for (2) whilst also retaining and building public support for what had been enormously successful policies.

The press is trying a different tack, now they're not attacking Corbyn directly any more. rather they are ignoring him. Chipping away at Labour ideas, and trying to bring back the idea that they're all the same. This 7 year old Oxfam story dominating the airwaves is a case in point.

I heard an interesting point on the radio this evening. Joe Queenan's brief history of cunning. Apparently when blair was elected in 1997 Private Eye circulation plummeted - The public wanted to believe he really stood for change. That's why when he was discovered to have taken a . million quid donation from Bernie Eccleston to allow Formula 1 to keep taking tobacco advertising it was enough for Tony to say "i'm a regular kind of guy" people so wanted to believe he was different.

perhaps that's why so many of a certain age remain so wedded to Blair. they're like old Communists who couldn't accept the crimes of Stalin because they had so much invested in the dream they'd signed up to.