The Brexit Thread

[Nefertiti2]

Richard Seymour before todays events

I suspect, then, that the DUP would be happy to collapse both the government, and the Good Friday Agreement. The coalition is an alliance of convenience: the DUP are not Tories in today's sense. They may hate Corbyn, but they hate a border in the Irish sea even more. Meanwhile, the Agreement is based on communal power-sharing, when the DUP and Sinn Fein cannot agree on such points as: recognition of the Irish language, marriage equality, the Bill of Rights, legacy inquests and so on.

I don't think the DUP can give in on this and remain the same party. Even if Foster wanted to cut a deal behind some arse-saving casuistry, any attempt to do so would create a new schism.

Which means that either May has to accept that the coalition is falling apart, and call a new election; or she has to brazenly dare her own MPs and cabinet colleagues to collapse the government and force a new election. Right now, we're waiting to see which she has actually chosen.

Ian Dunt's analysis

May has three choices, all of which break her. If she insists on a border in Ireland, the talks break down and she is finished. If she insists on a border in the Irish sea, the DUP pull the plug on her parliamentary deal and she is finished. If she accepts regulatory alignment for the whole of the UK, the Cabinet hawks revolt and she is finished. Whatever happens, it's hard to see how she survives.

Whilst Laura Kuennsberg in an extraordinary contribution
"If you're not into Brexit politics this is going to sound completely mad but... May might agree today that N Ireland can basically be like Norway (high alignment model) before the cabinet has decided if the rest of the country is going to be Norway or Canada (low alignment)


3. Johnson/Gove want a looser arrangement (Canada), others want closer ties (Hammond/Rudd) - crucial thing is the cabinet hasn't yet had full discussion, let alone a decision


4. So if May (either today or next week) gives headsup that NI is going to be Norway, how can rest of UK be anything but?


5. Altho, this we are a long, long, way from a final deal and the words that oil the wheels for progress at this stage, are words, not reality - here ends mad, niche thread

That she calls basic factual analysis of the underlying issues "mad" and "niche" indicate what the real problems of Breixt have been.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Replacing the leader without a general election again isn't a runner, I don't think. That means May survives, I think.

[Nefertiti2]

the Taoiseach has just said the Irish were told by the EU an agreement had been reached.

[anton pulisov]

Yep so Arlene Foster held her press conference and May pulled out. Tail wagging the dog.

[Nefertiti2]

'Varadkar: 'I’m surprised and disappointed that the British Government now appears not to be in a position to conclude what was agreed earlier today.'

[Nefertiti2]

Varadkar confirms that the Irish Cabinet agreed to the wording, as did rest of a Irish political parties... says squaring off DUP and Conservatives was matter for PM May

[Duncan Gardner]

Nef: as I said on a Parallel thread Hoey and I aren't that pally. I even turned down the NI London supporters club party at Milwall Fc on Saturday to enjoy a pub lunch in Dave cameron's local

AP: I accept the Place Apart/ Special Status argument for NI and always have- I don't accept it need be a permanent ghetto outside other politics as you are suggesting.

Generally the DUP are backed into a corner There will likely be a demand for a Unionist Party of some sort for a while yet but their handling of both Brexit and the Rights issues has been so bad that they need big changes internally.

[Nefertiti2]

: 'The responsibility of any prime minister is to ensure that they can follow through on agreements that they make and we are surprised and disappointed that they haven’t been able to.'

[anton pulisov]

Nef: as I said on a Parallel thread Hoey and I aren't that pally. I even turned down the NI London supporters club party at Milwall Fc on Saturday to enjoy a pub lunch in Dave cameron's local

AP: I accept the Place Apart/ Special Status argument for NI and always have- I don't accept it need be a permanent ghetto outside other politics as you are suggesting.

Generally the DUP are backed into a corner There will likely be a demand for a Unionist Party of some sort for a while yet but their handling of both Brexit and the Rights issues has been so bad that they need big changes internally.

In my opinion the only viable long term solution for NI is for it to be an independent state outside both the UK and ROI. With a fully sovereign parliament that sorts its own stuff out. In that way you take sectarianism off the table and force people to take sides on more productive issues, like economic and social stuff. But that particular solution was only going to ever work within the framework of the EU.......

[Tubby Isaacs]

Wahey, here's Andrew Rosindell!

[Snake Plissken]

May tried the same bullshit trick she pulled post election, telling everybody that she could form a Government without actually having agreed a deal with the DUP to enable her to do so. This time she claims a deal is reached without checking she has support from the DUP. She's a fucking shit poker player.

[Nefertiti2]

"Brexit is proving to be immensely complex & difficult, exactly as was predicted a year ago & ruthlessly disregarded" by Leavers, says Dominic Grieve

[Tubby Isaacs]

Andrew Rosindell says "Brussels are behind it all". The EU are "fighting for survival". And Ireland's being silly because it's not thinking global.

His solution to the hard border isn't yet forthcoming. Kay Burley said "You've got to suck it up, haven't you?"
the
It's quite handy for May that she's got the DUP, as very obvious blockers. Rosindell and other backbench goons would have blocked it.

[Tubby Isaacs]

May tried the same bullshit trick she pulled post election, telling everybody that she could form a Government without actually having agreed a deal with the DUP to enable her to do so. This time she claims a deal is reached without checking she has support from the DUP. She's a fucking shit poker player.

I wonder if she has properly seen the Hard Brexit shitfest coming. I was amazed that the bill got settled.

The DUP being seen to fuck up her deal gives her a way to go for a "reluctant, don't have the votes" Soft Brexit for the whole UK.

[Snake Plissken]

I think that you are ascribing a level of cunning to her that she simply doesn't have. She is all about the short-term, where the short-term is no longer than about 12 hours.

[Lang Spoon]

@AP-

Blame for collapsing the NIA is almost entirely with Sinn Fein. The Cash for Energy scandal even gave them an excuse, which they soon abandoned in favor of a 'rights' campaign. To speak what AP calls Klingon and so on. Basically because although almost anywhere else RHI would be easily understood as a political corruption story, but it doesn't fulfil the main NI requirement of the 2 blocs being on distinct sides. SF are just as potentially embarrassed by such issues as DUP are.

So the sacred GFA is as dead as a Tottenham title bid. NI Nats are in thrall to a party uninterested in deals, while the DUP are likely to win nearly all the Unionist seats in a mirror image 'Fear of a Fenian Planet'campaign.

As local hack Newton Emerson points out an effective sea border wouldn't be new- it applied fro 1939 to the early 50s and then again under the Terrorism Acts fro the 70s. OK only for movement of people not goods but the principle is there

Well the GFA is an international Treaty. Eejits on the ground may have rendered it moot but one half of the Govts that signed up to it can’t just unilaterally abandon it to keep the votes of that eyebrows bastard. Well it can, but unilaterally tearing up treaties tends to have consequences. Like no one will trust you at all.

And like it or not there is a GFA obligation to put the Irish language on a statutory footing. It will barely cost fuck all, the only reason I can see for this being a deal breaker at Stormont is pure taig baiting. SF’s sudden concern for gay marriage and reproductive rights also seems high cynical but is also right. A less supine bench in the Nordie courts would probably have agreed divergence on Gay Marriage breaches the rights of Nordies and teh married gays from marginally more civilized parts of the UK who somehow decide to move to Liliput.

And in a halfway at all functioning govt, the fucker would have stood down as FM as soon as the incompetence at best/institutional approved nod and wink corruption for fermers story broke.

Now May looks fucking pathetic and broken. And Arlene has turned down the North’s only chance ever to become a productive economy. Youse could have stolen so much GB FDI. Still, there’s always the chicken farms.

[Tubby Isaacs]

edit to Snakey.

I don't know if that's always true. She tried to address social care and pension costs in the election campaign. They weren't short term strokes to boost her majority, whatever their faults.

That "brave" stuff apparently came from Nick Timothy. One thing she's done with Brexit is get the main adviser (can't remember his name) out of DEXEU and into her office. I wouldn't be surprised if he'd put her in the picture properly, or that she'd consider acting on it. She'll have had more than a few business Tories on the phone too, of course.

You don't have to think she's turned into Garry Kasparov or anything.

[Ginger Yellow]

She tried to address social care and pension costs in the election campaign.

And backed down on it as soon as it had been announced. Because whatever its merits, the social care policy was a massive hit to the Tory base, which as a campaign strategy is insane. She's a terrible politician who lucked into the leadership by being slightly less hateable and nakedly careerist than everyone else.

[Nefertiti2]

I'm wondering if this is theatre. To find a way to stay in the single market and force out Gove et al.

[Tubby Isaacs]

And backed down on it as soon as it had been announced. Because whatever its merits, the social care policy was a massive hit to the Tory base, which as a campaign strategy is insane. She's a terrible politician who lucked into the leadership by being slightly less hateable and nakedly careerist than everyone else.

I'm not disputing that. I'm just saying you can't explain everything about her in terms of acting for short term partisan advantage. I also don't think she'll want to fight another election. Get out with a business friendly Brexit will help her retirement.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I'm wondering if this is theatre. To find a way to stay in the single market and force out Gove et al.

Yeah.

The Guardian talked about her people meeting Rees Mogg and all, and nodding along sagely how it was unacceptable to treat NI as different. I wonder if they were thinking "You really won't like the implications of your own logic". Nobody believes in drones flying along the border, knocking out electronic invoices, that bollocks has got to crumble surely.

Nobody's gone from the front bench so far. I really thought Baker would. I think Gove will hang on because he needs to show he can do loyalty.

[Nefertiti2]

Guardian saying that Gavin Barwell told Tories that any talk of regulatory "alignment" was only in relation to what happened if there was no deal on trade - an outcome they insist v unlikely. Jonathan Portes pointing out this would only make sense if the trade deal envisaged is that the UK to accept "regulatory alignment" - "ie shadowing Single Market"

[Lang Spoon]

They are in knots. Chaos.

[Diable Rouge]

How long until another GE - can Corbyn be convinced on staying in SM and CU?

[Lang Spoon]

Well it will be the Brexit election whenever it happens. There’s no getting away from it now.