Trump's Card

[San Bernardhinault]

Which is why it's a big deal that Cohen said that the payout was for the purpose of helping the campaign.

Giuiliani (I think) had claimed that it was to protect the marriage. This s obvious bollocks, but unprovable, and is not illegal.

Even worse, the money came from the Trump organisation, not from Trump himself, which makes it an illegal corporate contribution to the campaign. Trump can give as much of his own money as he wants - but has to declare it. If it came from Trump personally it would be a legal but undeclared contribution which (I think) would just result in a chunky fine.

[Ginger Yellow]

Even worse, the money came from the Trump organisation, not from Trump himself

Depending on how you read the plea agreement, it may even have come from the foundation. It's not explicitly stated by the prosecution, but there's a quote from "Executive 1" saying it should be paid from "the Trust".

[ursus arctos]

It became obvious that the payments were for campaign purposes when it came out that Cohen had told Daniels and McDougal to pound sand during the summer, only to quickly offer them settlement deals after the Access Hollywood tape came out.

GY, my understanding is that the Trust referred to in the information and the Foundation that is the subject of the NY AG proceedings are separate entities.

[Ginger Yellow]

Yeah, they may well be. But it would be irresponsible not to speculate!

[MsD]

Steve Tyler is really not happy with Trump using his music in his rally.

[pebblethefish]

Although Love in an Elevator is the sort of thing that Trump would get up to

[ursus arctos]

So, it was indeed a single stubborn holdout that kept Manafort from being guilty of all 18 counts.

[Etienne]

Pecker granted immunity.

[ursus arctos]

There was no way that he was going to co-operate without it, and yesterday's Journal story made it clear that he provided significant co-operation in the Cohen case.

[caja-dglh]

...and so the world refreshes twitter to see how soon the U.S. President goes on a fervent, testosterone fueled rampage for Pecker.

[The-Reverend]

goes on a fervent, testosterone fueled rampage for Pecker.

I though Republicans were generally aghast at that sort of thing, especially if baking a cake is involved.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Isn't speculating on who a possible democratic presidential nominee for AG might be in the potential future in which there is a president from that party even if at this stage we don't have the slightest clue of who might even be standing in 2020, even more jumping the gun/a waste of energy than Tubbs putting up polling for Congressional seats 6 months in advance?

Oi!

[anton pulisov]

Steve Tyler is really not happy with Trump using his music in his rally.

He was using John Deutschendorf's music as well. Not sure if he'd be pleased.

[anton pulisov]

I dunno about the porn star payoff thing. If I was defending Trump I'd say, yes, the payment didn't happen until election season, but it was made to protect his private life. You could equally say that his private life was being exposed because of the election. Chicken and egg situation. The burden is on the prosecution to prove the egg came first. And they can't.

Unless they have him on tape saying, "Michael, we gotta pay off Stormy or Crooked Hillary will be all over it." Which wouldn't surprise me.

[ursus arctos]

And you would lose, just as Cohen concluded he would before he plead guilty.

Cohen's guilty plea also makes that defence more difficult.

Though it is worth keeping in mind that 45 will never face that single campaign finance charge in a standalone court proceeding. He isn't going to be charged with a crime as long as he is in office. And if impeachment ever occurs, it is extremely hard for me to imagine a scenario in which fewer than 34 GOP senators refuse to convict, no matter what the charges are.

And should he be indicted after he leaves office, I would expect that there will be a host of more serious charges to choose from.

[Femme Folle]

Prediction: Broidy is going to jail.

He is a scumbag, even by GOP standards.

[Satchmo Distel]

Trump:

"A large number of counts, ten, could not even be decided in the Paul Manafort case. Witch Hunt!"

Er, no, it was just one juror holding out.

I'm surprised that jurors can be interviewed on TV even though the judge has not yet passed sentence.

[Satchmo Distel]

Can the GOP do anything to stop Trump running in 2020? It doesn't seem so. He will blackmail them (as in 2016) by threatening to run as a third candidate.

Then, assuming the Dems choose a good candidate this time (big assumption I know) it becomes about trying to prevent the loss of both House and Senate.

Sessions seems to be hitting back at Trump's attacks on his refusal to stop the prosecutions. I could see Sessions finally being fired, maybe after the Manafort sentencing?

The Dems are hoping this can stall the Supreme Court confirmation process but of course the GOP will now give that extra urgency. A named co-conspirator in a felony being able to pick SCOTUS judges who can in theory protect him in future proceedings seems to be rather a big Constitutional flaw that the founders did not anticipate.

One big negative this week is that the tabloids and Fox are all over a murder in which the suspect is undocumented. Expect some very ugly GOP campaigning on the back of that story. Worst case scenario is that it negates all electoral GOP damage inflicted by Manafort and Cohen.

[Gerontophile]

Can the GOP do anything to stop Trump running in 2020? It doesn't seem so. He will blackmail them (as in 2016) by threatening to run as a third candidate.

Alternatively, Mittens could run, lose, and force a Trump defeat.

[Gerontophile]

Sorry, Hervé Villechaize and Ricardo Montalban have just called, and asked me not to be such a fantasist.

[Patrick Thistle]

Yesterday the radio newsreader read out Trumps tweet about how if he got impeached the economy would crash and everyone would become very poor. I literally giggled. It's just so ridiculously pathetic.

The sad thing is the committed supporters are probably really worried that could happen.

[Jah Womble]

Pathetic, and painfully transparent - there's nothing here that doesn't parallel with the logic and retaliation of a scolded child. Trump also uses the word 'enemies' a lot, to describe those in opposing professional and political positions: the unsophisticated language of the emotionally immature and the over-entitled. And his supporters re-convince themselves on a daily basis that this is how a great leader should present himself.

[Gerontophile]

Pathetic, and painfully transparent - there's nothing here that doesn't parallel with the logic and retaliation of a scolded child. Trump also uses the word 'enemies' a lot, to describe those in opposing professional and political positions: the unsophisticated language of the emotionally immature and the over-entitled. And his supporters re-convince themselves on a daily basis that this is how a great leader should present himself.

Jah, you're wonderful, and this is not about you.

408 pages, and nobody knows anything, except what they already knew. Mr Trump is a card-carrying cunt.

There is not an ending to this. He will be replaced by someone who seems sane, but it's too late: their sacrificing babies will be commonplace. And everyone will be standing around going "Wh'appened?"

And getting on with their/our lives. America is only an idea. And some people have the sheer effrontery to make it work. For them. The problem "we" have, is the piss will never flow uphill (without VERY strong magnets), so we get on with it, whatever the value of "it", is.

Good luck with that horse wearing a cone.

[anton pulisov]

To be honest I think it is bollocks that Trump would be brought down for paying off a porn star, just as it was ridiculous to impeach Bill Clinton about the Lewinsky scandal.

When a candidate runs for office or is in office their personal lives come into focus and people try to dig dirt on them. If they then try to protect their private life by paying people off, then surely it is not a crime?

As long as the payoff ultimately came from Trump's funds, all of this rests on Cohen's interpretation that this was done to 'influence the election'. And we don't know how much pressure Cohen was on to utter those words in a deposition in exchange for a deal.

It's all a bit borderline Ken Starr.

Interesting Politico article here.

[Gerontophile]

I am not sure that 45 can afford Ken Starr.


I just paused for about 8 seconds, and realised that OJ Simpson would be a better president than this mulligatawny-soup personified.