Trump's Card

[ursus arctos]

If you want a fair democracy, surely you decide what's fair and use that system.

The fundamental issue at the moment is that the GOP are fundamentally opposed to fairness, as it is contrary to their interests.

[Ginger Yellow]

It's more than federalism though, or it seems to be to me. There's nothing inherent about federalism (as opposed to the US incarnation) that says statewide elections should have different standards within the state, or federal elections should have different standards between states. States should (subject to say the 9th and 14th amendments) be able to have different standards for statewide elections, and counties can have different standards for county-wide elections, but why on earth, in principle, should elections to the higher body be subject to multiple standards? It's just an artefact of the way the modern US was cobbled together. It's not how you would design a federal republic de novo, either on grounds of fairness or exepience.

[ursus arctos]

Including the long history of fiddling elections and using the election apparatus as a patronage honeypot that formed part of that process.

[San Bernardhinault]

Yes, it's not really federalism - I sort of understand that BC has different rules to Ontario. And that Virginia has different rules to California. But I don't really get why Loudoun county has different rules to Fairfax county when you're directly voting for the governor of Virginia.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The fundamental issue at the moment is that the GOP are fundamentally opposed to fairness, as it is contrary to their interests.

Like you were saying before, a proper civil rights law is needed.

[ursus arctos]

Well, we had a Voting Rights Act that protected against some of the most grievous violations until the Supreme Court decided that racism was a thing of the past here.

Fingers crossed for the Wisconsin gerrymandering case, then.

[Kevin S]

Sorry if this big story came up on here yesterday. Could go in the WTF thread I suppose:

Cyst in beagle's ear looks like Trump.

[Eggchaser]

I see another anti-science climate change denier is up for the head of NASA.

[San Bernardhinault]

More on Rand

The senator grows pumpkins on his property, composts and has shown little interest for neighborhood regulations.

Competing explanations of the origins of the drama cited stray yard clippings, newly planted saplings and unraked leaves.

[ursus arctos]

Funny, I was absolutely certain that it was The Fountainhedge.

[San Bernardhinault]

I see another anti-science climate change denier is up for the head of NASA.

I always find this fascinating - how long can a politician who originally knew nothing and was deliberately sitting with his fingers in his ears, actually continue to hold that viewpoint when working primarily with scientists who actually deal in facts. I can see how a Congressman from Oklahoma could get away with being an idiot for political purposes, but once he's head of the EPA I'd think that at some point realisation would begin to dawn.

The real danger with NASA, by the way, is not just the Director, but the fact that Congress is shifting its entire purpose to manned space travel, so the entire global monitoring aspect of the organisation is at risk of being destroyed. I think the argument is that the USGS will take over. But USGS has nothing like the budget to do what NASA has been doing.

[San Bernardhinault]

Ha! Gold star for Ursus!

[San Bernardhinault]

All in all a good night for Democrats so far. Looks like Northam will win Virginia by 7% or so. That is an absolutely cracking result for a Democrat in an odd-year election, I think. It also looks like they'll win the other statewide races.

Democrats have also won a substantial number of seats in the Gerrymandered Virginia Legislature. Probably not enough to get a majority; but perhaps not far off - they appear to have won 12 of the 17 they need so far.

Meanwhile, unsurprisingly the Dems win in Jersey. And they're winning a bunch of mayoral races.

It's possible, too, that the Maine Medicaid expansion might pass, from very early results.

[Satchmo Distel]

Is it possible to infer a percentage swing since Nov 2016?

[Lang Spoon]

It’s Bigly.

[ursus arctos]

It’s a fools’ errand to compare odd year results to those in even years, given that there is zero overlap in the offices in play.

[San Bernardhinault]

Not really possible to imply as swing - there are too many variables: it's a state, not national election so not directly comparable. It's a low turnout year that should help Republicans. Gillespie held no events with Trump and is historically a standard business Republican so should be less toxic in NoVa. The Charlottesville statue thing could have influenced things in all directions.

But any swing towards the Democrats in Virginia in an odd-year election is a big deal.

NYT is now predicting a win of 9.6%, which is absolutely huge. 538's current analysis has the Democrats already picking up 12 seats in the Va House; and ahead in another 6 or 7. If they swing the Va House, it will be an astonishing outcome. That would be a "wave" level win. Republicans will seriously begin to freak out.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Crikey, I got something right. Fairfax much bigger margin than in 2013 or 2014. Plus lots of other good results.

I think it's easier to turn your voters out if they live so near to DC, but excellent nonetheless.

[Tubby Isaacs]

So is Medicaid expansion on?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Gillespie wins "Isle of Wight", which is better than John Major in 1997.

[Femme Folle]

So much winning.

[ursus arctos]

We need to see where the House of Delegates ends up before we can talk about Medicaid expansion.

[San Bernardhinault]

It's going to be a couple of seats either way in the Va House. It's a massive win for Democrats - before today, people were saying that a 6 to 10 seat swing would be a very good day for them.

But it might not be enough for a Medicaid expansion.

The Maine Medicaid expansion looks almost certain to win now, though. And that might put pressure on if Va Republicans do hold the house.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Yeah. But the Republican controlled Senate can't block, no?

Maine's Medicaid ballot initiative looks like a win. Any reason why other states haven't tried that before?

[ursus arctos]

I’m not sure what the process is in Virginia and can’t find the answer quickly.

As to Maine, many states are less accommodating to popular initiatives, particularly those that don’t amend the state constitution