Trump's Card

[Tubby Isaacs]

Some Trumper called Steve Rogers on CNN saying "Let Robert Mueller do his job".

[San Bernardhinault]

The more I think about this, the more it feels like a Profumo type situation.

A person in a position of massive influence - Trump's campaign chairman when he got the nomination - was massively compromised. He had been doing illegal work for Russian agents (Yanukovich) and laundering $18m of money he got paid. The Russians must have known it was illegal and the money was being laundered, and thus Manafort must have been exceptionally susceptible to blackmail.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Trump tweets out a picture of himself and a bunch of folk round a table, including Papadopolous.

Ah that was an old tweet the news dug up.

[ursus arctos]

SB, that's definitely part of it, but I don't think it is close to all of it.

It's also important to keep in mind that Manafort volunteered his services and did not take a salary from the campaign. His reasons for doing so are becoming more and more clear.

Papadopolous pleaded guilty three and half weeks ago. Further evidence for those of us who believe that any leaks about the investigation haven't been coming from Mueller or his team.

[Nefertiti2]

The more I think about this, the more it feels like a Profumo type situation.

A person in a position of massive influence - Trump's campaign chairman when he got the nomination - was massively compromised. He had been doing illegal work for Russian agents (Yanukovich) and laundering $18m of money he got paid. The Russians must have known it was illegal and the money was being laundered, and thus Manafort must have been exceptionally susceptible to blackmail.

Think it goes way beyond Profumo.

[San Bernardhinault]

I only just rediscovered that Roger Stone used to work with Paul Manafort. It had slipped my mind. Their ex-company, Black, Manafort and Stone, has an astonishing Wikipedia entry.

Former clients include:

Mohamed Sia Barre, Ferdinand Marcos, Sese Seko Mobuto and Jonas Savimbi

To work with one vile dictator might be considered misfortune...

[San Bernardhinault]

I'm sure it's much more than Profumo - it reaches far higher and there's more to it.

But this particular indictment only reaches to the heart of the Trump campaign because it shows that Manafort was in an utterly compromised position thanks to the Russians.

[Nefertiti2]

Yes but Papadaopoulos is the story today. He's pleaded guilty and is cooperating. he's flipped. They're toast.

[anton pulisov]

Looks like Hillary's e-mails are going to take out another presidency.

[Nefertiti2]

Papadopoulos says the Trump campaign approved a meeting with the Russians in July 2016.

[ursus arctos]

AP, we are a very, very long way from that outcome, and there is absolutely no certainty that we will ever get there.

[ursus arctos]

A federal District Court Judge in Washington has enjoined 45’s attempt to reverse the US miltary’s policy on transgender employees.

[Nefertiti2]

AP, we are a very, very long way from that outcome, and there is absolutely no certainty that we will ever get there.

True of course. But Trump now has an approval rating in the low 30's it seems to me that faced with the scale of corruption & incompetence on so many fronts things may move faster than you think. how long can the US have a lame duck president in reponse tothe Coronation of Chairman Xi

As Marcy Wheeler blogs here Papadopoulos' guilty plea increases the pressure on Manafort to flip. Sessions is shown to have lied.

[ursus arctos]

Nef, I'd love to agree with you, but I currently don't see a mechanism that would bring that about before the mid-term elections (13 months from now).

That could change, but the last couple of weeks strike me as having made invocation of the 25th Amendment and/or impeachment even less likely than they were before, as those Republican Congresspeople who are thinking of running for re-election appear to have doubled down with 45, rather than picking up on what McCain, Corker and Flake have said. If they can't get their tax cuts, that may change, but no one is going to give up on that before the first quarter of next year at the earliest.

[San Bernardhinault]

Yep. If Trump's going down at all, it's probably still over a year out. I think there's a chance that terrible poll ratings for Republicans might convince a load of sitting House members in marginal seats to not run again. And this would allow them to go a bit rogue. But the numbers are not going to be enough to bring down the Presidency.

[Nefertiti2]

But presumably none of the Republican congresspeople knew about Papadopoulos. They do now.

[Tubby Isaacs]

How popular are the tax cuts going to be with the wider public? Not very, surely?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Yep. If Trump's going down at all, it's probably still over a year out. I think there's a chance that terrible poll ratings for Republicans might convince a load of sitting House members in marginal seats to not run again. And this would allow them to go a bit rogue. But the numbers are not going to be enough to bring down the Presidency.

Incumbents retiring would be very bad news for them, wouldn't it?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Daniel Dale
@ddale8
Papadopoulos is described as "proactive cooperator." Former prosecutor tells me that sometimes means "wore a wire."

Sounds a bit hopeful.

[San Bernardhinault]

Incumbents retiring would be very bad news for them, wouldn't it?

It would.

That said, I think incumbency in the house is less beneficial than incumbency in the senate.

Also, the number retiring because of scary polling numbers would have to be pretty high.

[Nefertiti2]

Barton Gellman's twitter feed

"Mueller may have pitched his message today to specific targets he knows and we don't. Other points, not all obvious, apply more broadly.

"1/8 What stands out for me is Mueller's strategic use of implicit threat. Not only the ones he names. Not only against Manafort and Gates."

2/8 "Count 35 against Manafort hits at risk of bank fraud charges against his son in law, with potential financial drain on his daughter too."

3/8" Counts 38 & 41 share ominous phrase "together with others." People may fear he's thinking of them & they won't find out in time to deal."

4/8 "Mueller's team controlled the selection of facts in the Papadoupolous plea. Three messages, at least, shaped their choice."

5/8 "One: Mueller knows things, some of them about Russia, and has proof. He's warning other campaign witnesses against perjury."

6/8 "Two: He's not saying exactly what he knows or how. Uncertainty there inspires dread, may flush out evidence he doesn't even know about."

7/8 "Three: Early cooperation will save you from the worst. Mueller could have taken a lot harsher approach to the Papadopoulos facts."

8/8 "Classic leverage.. He may know what you're hiding. He'll scorch you & yours if you lie. Spill and he'll go easier. Don't wait too long."

He alos retweets this "U.S. District Court for D.C. has four sealed cases in its docket with case numbers between Papadopoulos' (182) and Manafort's (201)."

[MsD]

I love that Melania's tweeting about decorating the White House for Hallowe'en. With predictable, but nonetheless funny, responses.

[ursus arctos]

That said, I think incumbency in the house is less beneficial than incumbency in the senate.

In part because of gerrymandering, which has made many Congressional districts virtually impossible for the GOP to lose.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Anything happening with the court cases?

[ursus arctos]

Nothing new of note,

The judicial process is much slower than television would have you think.