2024 Republican Primaries

[Wouter D]

I think Haley will stay in until Super Tuesday

It might be a little more difficult now that she lost to "none of the candidates" in the Nevada primary.

[ursus arctos]

By more than two to one

[San Bernardhinault]

Yeah, that might be it for her. I had thought she might want to exist as the lightning rod, like John Kasich did in 2016. But there's no evidence that she does. It's very dead-end stuff now.

[caja-dglh]

The desperation of her SNL appearance - both from NBC and Haley - was a deathknell.

[ursus arctos]

AP calls South Carolina for Trump less than 60 seconds after the polls close

[Nocturnal Submission]

I had no idea about Gabbard's "journey": https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68388154

[Sean of the Shed]

I had no idea about Gabbard's "journey": https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68388154

Looks like someone who will align themselves to whatever ideology gives them the most political gain and bollocks to principles or genuine beliefs. Strong Liz Truss vibes.

[Patrick Thistle]

AP calls South Carolina for Trump less than 60 seconds after the polls close

The short BBC news report last night included footage of Trump literally kissing a flag. He is beyond ludicrous.

[Satchmo Distel]

The Guardian quotes a poll suggesting Haley would have a better chance of beating Biden* so in the event Biden did beat Trump there would be a "what if" there for the GOP, just as the Dems will have a "what if" if Biden is more unpopular than an alternative may have been. I know the counter would be that counterfactuals are pointless and there really was never a plausible path after Jan 6th 2021 to avoiding these two being the candidates, but it's worth having as a footnote that such a poll existed.

*She has a 16 point lead versus 4 in Trump's favour. OTOH polls have caveats and for this one it's that saying you'll vote Haley is easy when you know she's not going to be on the ballot.

[scratchmonkey]

I had no idea about Gabbard's "journey": https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68388154

She inspires a special kind of political adulation as well, I had one interaction with a wild-eyed Brazilian telling me that Gabbard "was the most left-wing member of Congress".

[ursus arctos]

The pundit reaction to SC has been interesting.

They are using words like "trounced", "humbled", "clobbered", etc. for a 60-40 outcome in which Trump was effectively running as an incumbent.

One can imagine what the same people would be writing if Biden won any state by the same margin.

Haley also won the wealthier and better educated parts of the state, which will be relevant for the general election, especially as more than two-thirds of Trump voters told exit polls that they wanted a national abortion ban, which would be an electoral disaster for the party nationally.

[San Bernardhinault]

Yeah, I find that media response interesting. Haley overperformed expectations a little, and despite a lot of articles saying "Trump won every part of the Republican Party", Haley was winning 90%+ in some Charleston districts.

It's - of course - humiliating for Haley to get beaten in her home state, but it's not a particularly compelling story of a Trumpy triumph anywhere other than upstate in the hills and in icky Myrtle Beach.

[Cal Alamein]

I know it's extremely hypothetical as desantis bailed very early, but what do you reckon the margin of trump's FLA primary victory would have been?

[San Bernardhinault]

It's a difficult counterfactual because we need to work out what the other variables are - would Haley have stayed in if DeSantis did? And if DeSantis stayed in would he have taken enough Trump votes to give Haley a possible victory in New Hampshire?

But if it were an equivalent Trump-DeSantis Florida two-person match up, same as Trump-Haley in South Carolina, I think DeSantis would have done worse than Haley, probably 70-30 to Trump or worse.

[ursus arctos]

Yes, there are too many counterfactuals for me to have any confidence in a prediction, but I think "worse than Hailey" is very reasonable.

[Satchmo Distel]

I think Haley had more "policy"* differences from Trump than Desantis does, and there's a centre-right vote that Haley gets that DeSantis doesn't. On those bases I think Trump beats Desantis by a far wider margin, based simply on DeSantis not having a different constituency or platform*.

*probably the wrong word for the largely incoherent stances that primaries always involve but it's shorthand for positioning herself closer to the traditional GOP.