Romanian election

[Diable Rouge]

Early exit polls suggest the "Social Democrats" (who nowadays echo Voltaire's pithy commentary on the Holy Roman Empire) could win most seats, though the diaspora vote, which is absent here, traditionally favours liberal parties, while the USRPlus grouping is theoretically the least corrupt of the major blocs. The biggest surprise is the showing of AUR, which favours union with Moldova, while the PMP are also reportedly in favour of the idea, which would increase tensions with Russia and excite nationalist sentiment.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1335661117784338435

[ad hoc]

AUR are a bunch of fascist cunts and them getting over the threshold (if results reflect the exit polls) is a fucking disaster.

Turnout was the lowest since the revolution which is the biggest story here.

(PSD won't form a government. It'll be a PNL - USR+ coalition

[Nefertiti2]

only just over 30 per cent!

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1335669600969748485?s=20

That's astonishing. Does that exclude the diaspora vote, too ad hoc?

[Duncan Gardner]

Early exit polls suggest the "Social Democrats" (who nowadays echo Voltaire's pithy commentary on the Holy Roman Empire)

See also 'Londonderry: UK City of Culture'

[ad hoc]

only just over 30 per cent!

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1335669600969748485?s=20

That's astonishing. Does that exclude the diaspora vote, too ad hoc?

It doesn't include the diaspora vote*
but at most that will bring the final number up to 33.5%

(*obviously some of the diaspora haven't finished voting yet - in the UK for example, and especially in North America)

[Gangster Octopus]

I remember walking past the Harrow Civic Centre during the last election and being impressed by the large number of people queuing to vote.

Actually, I may have been on a bus...

[ad hoc]

Results are worse than the exit polls. More or less 96% counted now, and AUR (the ultra fascist party) have nearly 10% of the vote. Only 5 parties have got over the 5% threshold, with PSD (the corrupt party that still holds sway - by dint of its infrastructure inherited from the Communists - in the villages) having the biggest share by some distance. Still think that the governing coalition will be PNL-USR+ (possibly with the UDMR - the Hungarian party).

USR+ are the only party of them 5 I have any time for.

[ursus arctos]

A friend in Bucharest said that AUR's success (first time in Parliament) was largely due to their capture of ant-mask/lockdown/vaccination sentiment

Dies that ring true to you?

[ad hoc]

Not sure. I mean they have targeted that vote, but I think it's more the usual far-right agenda of "Christianity" and hatred of gays and minorities. They got a lot of votes in the diaspora, which is the troubling part - it's not just rural people scared of Muslims.

[ad hoc]

This is the fairest analysis I've seen (not sure how much it will mean to the outsider, but hopefully give some pointers)

https://twitter.com/Miyhnea/status/1335892465618972675

[Diable Rouge]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1335914499493277704

Presumably much of the diaspora vote was from Moldovans with dual citizenship.

[ad hoc]

It might account for some (though afaik unification of Romania and Moldova is not really a hugely popular position in either country). More I would suggest that much of the diaspora has taken on some of the anti-Muslim discourse that is prevalent throughout Western Europe, plus that kind of stratification of the oppressed that you get ("we're the victims of discrimination, but we're not quite as discriminated against as those people, so we need to keep putting them down too, so that we retain our position not quite at the bottom of the pile")

[WOM]

They got a lot of votes in the diaspora, which is the troubling part - it's not just rural people scared of Muslims.

Who among the diaspora can vote? ie, are there restrictions if you take citizenship elsewhere, etc? Also, are rules around diaspora voting similar across the EU?

[ad hoc]

I think anyone who is still a Romanian citizen can vote. I think most countries in the EU, work this way, though there might be one or two more that like the UK disqualify you after you've been out the country for a set length of time (15 years in the case of the UK)

[ursus arctos]

That is the general rule within the EU. Countries can make it easier or more difficult (usually through regulation of where and when one can vote from out of the country), but the UK disqualification rule is unusual

Interesting to me that the diaspora has been traditionally right wing, which I don't think is generally the case elsewhere.

ad hoc's theory in that respect sounds right to me, at least with regard to xenophobic appeals. There may also be a general sense among the diaspora that taxes should be kept at a minimum, even if that impacts social services which are generally not available to the diaspora,

[Sporting]

there might be one or two more that like the UK disqualify you after you've been out the country for a set length of time (15 years in the case of the UK)

Except for:

"Members of the armed forces and their spouses and civil partners; Persons employed in the service of the Crown or by the British Council in a post outside the UK."

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegDa...)564379_EN.pdf

[Sporting]

Further detail:

United Kingdom In the UK, in order for voters to be entitled to vote at a parliamentary election, they need to be registered in the register of parliamentary electors for the constituency in question (Section 1(1) of the Representation of the People Act 2000).27 According to Section 4(1)b), in order to register in the register of parliamentary electors, citizens need to be resident in the constituency. British citizens living overseas are entitled to be registered to vote in national parliamentary elections for up to 15 years subsequent to their departure from the UK (Section 1(3) and (4) of the Representation of the People Act 1985. They regain their voting rights upon return to the UK. Persons who have never been registered as an elector in the UK are not eligible to register as an overseas voter unless they left the UK before they were 18 years old, and within the preceding 15 years (Section 1(4)b) of the Representation of the People Act 1985). The 15-year rule does not apply to members of the armed forces and their spouses and civil partners, and to persons employed in the service of the Crown or by the British Council in a post abroad. Overseas electors need to submit a declaration in order to be registered as such on the Electoral Roll (section 2) and can vote by post or proxy. Any person submitting an overseas elector's declaration knowing that they are not entitled to, and making false statements, will be committing an offence liable on summary conviction to a fine of up to ?5 000 (Section 12 of the Representation of the People Act 1985). There is ongoing discussion about extending voting rights for British citizens resident abroad, including cases brought before the courts (e.g. the Preston case).

[ad hoc]

Interesting to me that the diaspora has been traditionally right wing, which I don't think is generally the case elsewhere.

Yes, I'm not really sure about this. The majority of the diaspora is less educated and from villages (which is probably slightly unusual compared to other countries), and that tends to be a fairly right wing demographic. However in the past few years, the diaspora has typically voted against corruption (to be honest as with all Eastern European countries the divide is not really right vs left but old/corrupt vs anti-corruption). I think there will be an extent to which AUR have made a case for themselves as anti corruption (they've only really existed for a couple of months, so they don't yet have a history that would suggest that this is not true)

[ursus arctos]

A significant part of the diaspora in Italy is employed as domestics, cooks, drivers and home health care aides, and it would be fair to assume that their employers are more right wing than the population as a whole.

[ad hoc]

„I don’t admire the fair sex,” he wrote. “Admiration comes from superiority. You admire someone you think is above you. A woman can be desired but in no way admired.”
https://universul.net/far-right-roma...are-a-scourge/

[Diable Rouge]

Good to know the Irish, British, American and Australian Romanians appear to be progressive:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1336759473059336196

[DCI Harry Batt]

This is the fairest analysis I've seen (not sure how much it will mean to the outsider, but hopefully give some pointers)

https://twitter.com/Miyhnea/status/1335892465618972675

Thanks. What does

Maany of their voters see PNL as just "yellow PSD"

mean?

[ad hoc]

USR+ are (at least presented as) the party of anti corruption and a break with the past. The PSD are very much the symbol of the old ways (made up of the infrastructure and many of the people left over by the communist party after 89). Corrupt, rural, old basically. The PNL also contain a number of the old guard and are a bit of a fixture these days. They're not as corrupt as the PSD, but they're not exactly a fresh start. So USR voters (in large part young & urban who want Romania to move forward) see the PNL as not much better than the PSD

[Diable Rouge]

Basically, that both parties are seen as corrupt and dividing up the spoils of power when respectively in office.

[Nefertiti2]

Would be interested in your take on this article, ad hoc

https://twitter.com/openDemocracy/status/1343512049591185408?s=20