This is a fun World Cup for strange permutations. Group G could create the unprecedented situation of three teams being level on goals and points. I give no guarantees that I have worked out everything correctly, of course. But Russia and Uruguay are definitely through...
GROUP A
Russia and Uruguay are through, and will play off for top spot. Uncertainty about the outcome of Group B makes tactical shenanigans unlikely, but given that Spain is likely to top the group, and that Iran might still finish second, winning the group seems the best option. For that, Russia need to draw or win.
GROUP B
Nobody is through, though Morocco are out. Basically, if both games produce a winner, the winners are through. If both are draws, Spain and Portugal go through.
Spain are through if they avoid defeat to Morocco. They can lose by a goal, provided Iran and Portugal draw in a lowish-scoring game (at present, a 2-2 would be OK), or if Portugal beat Iran. If Spain lose and Iran win, then Spain needs the margin of Portugal's defeat to be higher than the margin of Spain's defeat.
Portugal are through with a draw or a win. If they lose, they must hope that Spain lose by a higher margin. Or if the margins of the Iberian defeats are equal, Portugal will need to have scored more goals. If Spain and Portugal are equal on goals and points (on 1st and 2nd, or 2nd and 3th), Fair Play kicks in.
Iran must win. A draw would suffice if Spain lose by two goals (or by one goal, but then Iran's draw would have to make up Spain's higher number of goals scored, which presently is 3)
GROUP C
France are through regardless. Peru are out.
Denmark go through if they avoid defeat against France or Australia fail to beat Peru. A defeat against France and an Australia win could still work, depending on goals scored.
Australia go through if they win and Denmark lose. Ideally, at least one of the scores would be by a margin of two goals, in which case Australia go through level on points but with a better goal difference. If both games finish with a one-goal margin, goals scored will kick in. If scores are equal, Australia go through on goals scored. If Denmark lose by a higher one-goal margin than Australia's win (eg 1-2 and 1-0), GD would be equal, and Fair Play kicks in (since head-to-head was a draw). Results of 1-0 and 3-2 would produce a clear winner.
Yeah, minds can go swimming...
GROUP D
More complicated permutations fun, even as Croatia are through, most likely topping the group.
Nigeria go through if they win against Argentina. A draw will suffice, provided Iceland don't win by two goals or more. A defeat will see Nigeria eliminated, regardless of the Iceland score.
Iceland might go through if they beat Croatia, and (a) Argentina beat Nigeria by the same margin as Iceland's victory or (b) Nigeria and Argentina draw, and Iceland win by three goals.
Argentina must beat Nigeria, and hope that Iceland fail to beat Croatia. If Iceland win, Argentina's winning margin must be a goal better than Iceland's.
GROUP E
Costa Rica are out.
Brazil go through if they avoid defeat to to Serbia. If they lose, Switzerland must lose by the same or higher margin.
Switzerland go through if they win. If they draw and Brazil vs Serbia produces a winner, they go through. If Serbia beat Brazil, and Switzerland lose, GD will kick in; presently Brazil are a goal better than Switzerland.
Serbia go through if they beat Brazil. If they draw, Switzerland must lose by a higher margin than one (or they might finish level on goals and points, in which case the rigmarole of Group B comes in).
GROUP F
The most complex group.
The teams that win their games will go through — provided the scores are not identical.
For Mexico, a draw is enough. If they lose, they must hope that Germany don't win.
For Sweden, a win will see them through regardless (at least by virtue of head-to-head against Mexico). If they draw, they must hope Germany fail to beat South Korea. And Germany's draw will be with fewer goals than Sweden's draw. If both teams finish level on points and goals, Germany go through on head-to-head. If Sweden lose and South Korea win, they might go out.
For Germany, a win by two-goals is enough. A win by a one-goal margin might not be enough if Sweden beats Mexico by a higher0-scoring one-goal margin. So if Germany beat South Korea 1-0, and Sweden beat Mexico 2-1, Germany are out on goals scored. If the results are identical, it gets really complicated (see below). If they draw, they must hope that Sweden lose or draw (scoring no more goals than Germany). A defeat might still work, provided it is by a margin of one goal, and Sweden lose by more than a goal (or by a one-goal margin scoring fewer goals than Germany)
South Korea go through if they beat Germany by two goals or better, and Sweden lose.
If Mexico, Sweden and Germany will finish level on goals and points if Germany and Sweden win their final games by the same score. In that case there will be a head to head table (eliminating the results against South Korea).
In that case, the table presently is:
Germany Pl 2 GD 2-2 Pts 3
Mexico Pl 1 GD 1-0 Pts 3
Sweden Pl 1 GD 1-2 Pts 0
It then would depend on the numbers of goals scored in the respective games (remember, they must be identical).
The results are both 1-0: Germany and Sweden go through (Germany and Sweden having a GD of 2-2 each and Mexico 1-1; Germany top the table on head-to-head)
The results are both 2-1: Sweden and Mexico go through (Sweden 3-3; Mexico and Germany 2-2; Mexico go through on head to head)
The results are both 3-2 (4-3 or higher): Sweden and Mexico go through (Sweden 4-4, Mexico 3-3, Germany 2-2)
If there's nothing to separate the three teams, Fair Play points kick in.
GROUP G
Belgium and England are through. Winner tops the group. In case of a draw, our old pal Fair Play kicks in. Depending on how the earlier Group H games end, this group final could be keenly contested, or it could be a feast of tragi-comedy to see who can lose this to avoid Colombia in the next round.
GROUP H
Japan go through if they avoid defeat to Poland. Japan can lose if Colombia beat Senegal by a higher score (or by an equal score-margin, with fewer goals scored). If both games end in an identical draw, good old Fair Play kicks in.
Senegal go through if they beat Colombia. A draw is enough if Japan lose, or if Japan also draw, but score fewer goals. Senegal can lose if Japan also lose by a higher margin, or (or by an equal score-margin, with fewer goals scored). If both Senegal and Japan play to identical scorelines, Fair Play kicks in.
Colombia go through if they win. A draw will be enough if Japan lose.
Poland are out.
GROUP A
Russia and Uruguay are through, and will play off for top spot. Uncertainty about the outcome of Group B makes tactical shenanigans unlikely, but given that Spain is likely to top the group, and that Iran might still finish second, winning the group seems the best option. For that, Russia need to draw or win.
GROUP B
Nobody is through, though Morocco are out. Basically, if both games produce a winner, the winners are through. If both are draws, Spain and Portugal go through.
Spain are through if they avoid defeat to Morocco. They can lose by a goal, provided Iran and Portugal draw in a lowish-scoring game (at present, a 2-2 would be OK), or if Portugal beat Iran. If Spain lose and Iran win, then Spain needs the margin of Portugal's defeat to be higher than the margin of Spain's defeat.
Portugal are through with a draw or a win. If they lose, they must hope that Spain lose by a higher margin. Or if the margins of the Iberian defeats are equal, Portugal will need to have scored more goals. If Spain and Portugal are equal on goals and points (on 1st and 2nd, or 2nd and 3th), Fair Play kicks in.
Iran must win. A draw would suffice if Spain lose by two goals (or by one goal, but then Iran's draw would have to make up Spain's higher number of goals scored, which presently is 3)
GROUP C
France are through regardless. Peru are out.
Denmark go through if they avoid defeat against France or Australia fail to beat Peru. A defeat against France and an Australia win could still work, depending on goals scored.
Australia go through if they win and Denmark lose. Ideally, at least one of the scores would be by a margin of two goals, in which case Australia go through level on points but with a better goal difference. If both games finish with a one-goal margin, goals scored will kick in. If scores are equal, Australia go through on goals scored. If Denmark lose by a higher one-goal margin than Australia's win (eg 1-2 and 1-0), GD would be equal, and Fair Play kicks in (since head-to-head was a draw). Results of 1-0 and 3-2 would produce a clear winner.
Yeah, minds can go swimming...
GROUP D
More complicated permutations fun, even as Croatia are through, most likely topping the group.
Nigeria go through if they win against Argentina. A draw will suffice, provided Iceland don't win by two goals or more. A defeat will see Nigeria eliminated, regardless of the Iceland score.
Iceland might go through if they beat Croatia, and (a) Argentina beat Nigeria by the same margin as Iceland's victory or (b) Nigeria and Argentina draw, and Iceland win by three goals.
Argentina must beat Nigeria, and hope that Iceland fail to beat Croatia. If Iceland win, Argentina's winning margin must be a goal better than Iceland's.
GROUP E
Costa Rica are out.
Brazil go through if they avoid defeat to to Serbia. If they lose, Switzerland must lose by the same or higher margin.
Switzerland go through if they win. If they draw and Brazil vs Serbia produces a winner, they go through. If Serbia beat Brazil, and Switzerland lose, GD will kick in; presently Brazil are a goal better than Switzerland.
Serbia go through if they beat Brazil. If they draw, Switzerland must lose by a higher margin than one (or they might finish level on goals and points, in which case the rigmarole of Group B comes in).
GROUP F
The most complex group.
The teams that win their games will go through — provided the scores are not identical.
For Mexico, a draw is enough. If they lose, they must hope that Germany don't win.
For Sweden, a win will see them through regardless (at least by virtue of head-to-head against Mexico). If they draw, they must hope Germany fail to beat South Korea. And Germany's draw will be with fewer goals than Sweden's draw. If both teams finish level on points and goals, Germany go through on head-to-head. If Sweden lose and South Korea win, they might go out.
For Germany, a win by two-goals is enough. A win by a one-goal margin might not be enough if Sweden beats Mexico by a higher0-scoring one-goal margin. So if Germany beat South Korea 1-0, and Sweden beat Mexico 2-1, Germany are out on goals scored. If the results are identical, it gets really complicated (see below). If they draw, they must hope that Sweden lose or draw (scoring no more goals than Germany). A defeat might still work, provided it is by a margin of one goal, and Sweden lose by more than a goal (or by a one-goal margin scoring fewer goals than Germany)
South Korea go through if they beat Germany by two goals or better, and Sweden lose.
If Mexico, Sweden and Germany will finish level on goals and points if Germany and Sweden win their final games by the same score. In that case there will be a head to head table (eliminating the results against South Korea).
In that case, the table presently is:
Germany Pl 2 GD 2-2 Pts 3
Mexico Pl 1 GD 1-0 Pts 3
Sweden Pl 1 GD 1-2 Pts 0
It then would depend on the numbers of goals scored in the respective games (remember, they must be identical).
The results are both 1-0: Germany and Sweden go through (Germany and Sweden having a GD of 2-2 each and Mexico 1-1; Germany top the table on head-to-head)
The results are both 2-1: Sweden and Mexico go through (Sweden 3-3; Mexico and Germany 2-2; Mexico go through on head to head)
The results are both 3-2 (4-3 or higher): Sweden and Mexico go through (Sweden 4-4, Mexico 3-3, Germany 2-2)
If there's nothing to separate the three teams, Fair Play points kick in.
GROUP G
Belgium and England are through. Winner tops the group. In case of a draw, our old pal Fair Play kicks in. Depending on how the earlier Group H games end, this group final could be keenly contested, or it could be a feast of tragi-comedy to see who can lose this to avoid Colombia in the next round.
GROUP H
Japan go through if they avoid defeat to Poland. Japan can lose if Colombia beat Senegal by a higher score (or by an equal score-margin, with fewer goals scored). If both games end in an identical draw, good old Fair Play kicks in.
Senegal go through if they beat Colombia. A draw is enough if Japan lose, or if Japan also draw, but score fewer goals. Senegal can lose if Japan also lose by a higher margin, or (or by an equal score-margin, with fewer goals scored). If both Senegal and Japan play to identical scorelines, Fair Play kicks in.
Colombia go through if they win. A draw will be enough if Japan lose.
Poland are out.
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