MLB 2018

[Gerontophile]

Is that the 8-walk, no-hitter? Bollocks to that, if so.

*Worse, he already gave up a hit. Fuck him, and fuck the Orioles**.

** Yes, they did nothing wrong (other than stinking the place out), but I dislike them, so you know...

[ursus arctos]

Another frustrating loss for the Baby Bears

[Ginger Yellow]

Not the best start to the season, this weekend.

[Ginger Yellow]

The first week of the season, and one team is already trying to manufacture beef by making up one of their own unwritten rules of the game...the Twins upset that the Orioles bunted down the third base line down 7-0 in the 9th...after the Twins shifted towards first.

I'm struggling to understand the umbrage here. I know baseball has various unwritten sportsmanship rules about running up the score and spoiling no-hitters (which I think is bullshit - a perfect game should be earned, dammit) and so on, but this seems insane.

[ursus arctos]

It's quite extreme, and is seen as being such even by many of those who are obsessed with "playing the game the right way".

[Ginger Yellow]

But what is the principle even supposed to be? It's not fair to exploit the shift?

[San Bernardhinault]

"Not the best start to the season" is probably underselling it, right now. We currently are one of only 4 teams with a 100% record, but 2 of those have 100% winning records. The pitching looks absolute garbage so far. The hitting side doesn't look *that* bad yet, although it's just not come off properly. I fear that if we win any games, they'll only be lucky 9-7 scorelines when the hitters are hot, rather than games where the opposition is contained.

[ursus arctos]

The "principle" appears to be that one shouldn't bunt against the shift when the game is a blow out. In isolation, it can be seen as a not particularly logical extension of other things one isn't supposed to do in blow outs (stealing bases, sliding hard to break up double plays, etc).

Just how the Twins distinguish between the wrongness of the bunt and the rightness of the shift itself (against a light hitting backup catcher, no less) is a question one would have to ask them.

Jayson Stark wrote a terrific piece on The Athletic yesterday that is paywalled, but here is the bit on the current effectiveness of shifting (which tells me that offenses have to start trying to frustrate it)

THE MAGIC NUMBER: 19,823

WHAT IT MEANS: Would you believe there were an astounding 19,823 more shifts last season, on balls in play, than there were just five years ago in 2013? Yep. I said 19,823.

Here is the raw shifting data, according to Sports Info Solutions:

Shifts last season: 26,705
Shifts in 2013: 6,882
And (just for fun) shifts in 2010: 2,463

Digest those three items one more time. The use of shifts has more than tripled just over the last five seasons – and multiplied 10 times over the last eight seasons. So it’s hard to comprehend sometimes that there are still fans out there waiting for this whole shift thing to blow over. Heck, there are still pitchers waiting for this whole shift thing to blow over.

Well, the assignment for everyone predicting the Death of the Shift is to type our latest magic number on their iPads 19,823 times, until they get the message. The shift isn’t going to evaporate into the ozone, gang. Not. Going. To. Happen.

In fact, if anything, there’s an excellent chance we could see even more shifts this year. Why? Because we have four managers – Alex Cora in Boston, Mickey Callaway in Mets-ville, Gabe Kapler in Philly and Ron Gardenhire in Detroit – who just left teams that shift a lot and took over teams that ranked near the bottom of the sport in shifts last year.

So all that really matters is: Do shifts actually work? And speaking of that question…

THE MAGIC NUMBER: .197

WHAT IT MEANS: If you’re a left-handed hitter who pulls a ground ball these days, that’s your chance of reaching base, either via a hit or some sort of fielding mishap. That number is about 40 points lower – yessir, 40 points – than it was as recently as 2011, according to Sports Info Solutions.

So maybe you’ve heard this expression lately at a ballpark near you, possibly to explain the modern infatuation with launch angle:

“In the 21st century, ground balls are outs.”

So is that true? Oh, yeah. It’s totally true.

I was chatting with the hitting coach for a data-driven team last season when he casually blurted out a number that set off sirens in my head.

“If you pull a ground ball right now, with all these shifts,” he said, “you’re a .193 hitter.”

That doesn’t sound too promising, does it? But in fact, if you do that, you wouldn't even have that high an average.

Sports Info Solutions charts a metric it calls the Reached Base Rate. It’s basically On Base Percentage, except it also includes reaching via an error. And what we’ve learned from that metric is that, over the last two seasons, a left-handed hitter’s chances of reaching base on any ground ball between the first-base line and halfway to second base are under 20 percent.

That’s not his batting average. That’s not his On Base Percentage. That’s his chance of reaching base, period, even if it’s because the second baseman clanks it. Yikes!

That’s also not just against the shift. That’s against any defensive alignment.

Here is how that rate has changed over the last seven seasons:

2017 – .197
2016 – .193
2015 – .207
2014 – .208
2013 – .222
2012 – .221
2011 – .235

So it’s a funny thing. I hear skeptics cite all kinds of numbers to “prove” that shifts aren’t working. Really? Ask any left-handed hitter. Consult the chart above. Got it? Next!

[ursus arctos]

No clue why the Yankees are playing this, the weather has been awful all day?

Lots of good seats available, though

https://twitter.com/bsmile/status/981265494731870208?s=21

[Incandenza]

The shift is going to look tame compared to what the Astros did recently, putting on the shift and also sending their 3B into the outfield to have 4 outfielders.



It's a very situational play, but it will be interesting to see if other managers try it as well:

Soon, this won’t be as much of a novelty. As Jake Kaplan of The Athletic notes, when a bunch of conditions are met, the Astros are going to use a four-man outfield this year. Those conditions include: no runners on, a road game (the left field in Houston’s park isn’t big enough), a non-ground ball pitcher (so no Dallas Keuchel), and most importantly, a left-handed power hitter at the plate. In spring training, the Astros tried it against Jay Bruce, Justin Bour, Logan Morrison and Matt Adams.

I see that the Giants are playing their home opener against...the Seattle Mariners. An interleague matchup for your home opener is just not right (as are interleague matchups this early in the season to begin with).

[ursus arctos]

Ohtani with a three run homer in his first at bat at home.

[San Bernardhinault]

. I fear that if we win any games, they'll only be lucky 9-7 scorelines when the hitters are hot, rather than games where the opposition is contained.

8-4 with Christian Villanueva hitting 3 HRs. Close enough. It's good to be off the mark.

[Patrick Thistle]

Ah fuck, Myers is on the DL already.

Padres will be bottom and 40 games behind I reckon.

[Incandenza]

Stanton, Judge, and Sanchez all homered for the Yankees today.

[ursus arctos]

Stanton's was emphatic

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/981606414543024129

[Incandenza]

I'm afraid for how good the Yankees could be.

[ursus arctos]

https://twitter.com/mlb/status/982454613436653568?s=21

[Ginger Yellow]

That was a squeaker

[Ginger Yellow]

Woo, Happ finally delivers.

[ursus arctos]

First time that I’ve seen a team run out of mound visits.

The last few innings have been the antithesis of a defensive masterclass.

[Ginger Yellow]

Brewers have been pretty shocking defensively all series.

[danielmak]

Cutch with 6 hits including a walk off home run against the Dodgers in extra innings. I don't know where I would find this stat but it seems to be that there have been way more extra inning games in the first week+ of this season than any other season in recent memory. And many of these extra inning games aren't ending in 10 or 11 but seem to be going on and on.

[ursus arctos]

dm, I've had the same sense about extra innings, but haven't run the numbers. I do know that recent seasons have been higher than usual over the last 25 years or so.

Quite a satisfying series for the baby bears in the end.

Highly promising outings from Darvish and Quintana

[ursus arctos]

BTW, Ohtani's start against Oakland is the free game of the day on MLB.TV

Just no hits and six strikeouts in three innings so far

[danielmak]

BTW, Ohtani's start against Oakland is the free game of the day on MLB.TV

Just no hits and six strikeouts in three innings so far

Perfect game into the 7th? He's having quite a start, but it does seem to be big starts or bombs for Japanese players with high expectations. I was in LA when Nomo arrived and that was a very thrilling season.

EDIT: And I found this story about extra inning games but will need to do some more digging:
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/2...-inning-games/