Grand Slam No.4

[Janik]

Grand Slam No.4

Talking of stats, this is a good one that the Eurosport commentator has dug up; Kerber is 53/53 converting first sets taken into wins in 2016. Pliskova almost certainly doesn't know that stat, though she probably feels it or something similar subconsciously.

[Janik]

Grand Slam No.4

Janik wrote: Pliskova is actually playing pretty well, and is getting well beaten.

No longer, but she can't afford to throw that break straight away again...

[Janik]

Grand Slam No.4

She didn't.

Pliskova's serve stats are interesting. She is 26/31 behind her first serve, but only 8/23 on the second. That just shows Kerber's ability to time a ball from a defensive stance; Serena was nothing like that successful against the Pliskova second delivery in the Semi. And Serena is a great returner.

So it's very important for Karolina to get first balls in in the game coming up - 5-4 up and serving for set two.

[Janik]

Grand Slam No.4

Three first serves in from 15-30 down, and we are going the distance. Good. The match has deserved lasting for a chunk of time, the quality has been high throughout.

[Janik]

Grand Slam No.4

That experience gap, small given Kerber's own relative newness in these huge matches but distinct due to the complete absence of such for Pliskova, told in the end. Pliskova had it in her hand at 3-1 up in the deciding set, but played a tight service game to lose the advantage and then did the same at 4-5 down. Kerber, by contrast, steeled herself after losing it a little around the end of set two/start of set three.

[Gerontophile]

Grand Slam No.4

I enjoyed that, although would have preferred Pliskova to win, mainly to give her the confidence to win again.

[Janik]

Grand Slam No.4

When stated like on the court like that, $3.5million sounds sn enormous amount for playing Tennis. But if you had offered Kerber the cheque or the trophy, I'd have my money on her opting for trophy.

[Janik]

Grand Slam No.4

Men's final is indeed at 4pm New York time/9pm British. Here is how I think it will go:-

Men’s Singles Final

Novak Djokovic Srb [1] vs Stan Wawrinka Sui [3]

Few secrets here. Maybe one – Djokovic’s fitness. If there is something to keep quiet about, it could be the crucial element of the whole piece.
One thing that can be as-near-as-dammit relied on is that this match will be gruelling. These guys have been butting heads in Slams for the past three years, and on every occasion there has barely been anything in it. In fact, they have often produced classics of the sort that the Big Four used to provide against each other. This is now the most reliable source of such encounters.
Those past meetings are worth listing.
2013 Aussie R4: Djokovic wins in 5, 12-10 in the deciding set.
2013 US SF: Djokovic wins in 5, coming back from two sets to one down.
2014 Aussie QF: Wawrinka wins in 5, 9-7 in the decider.
2015 Aussie SF: Djokovic wins in 5, running away with the last 6-0.
2015 French F: Wawrinka wins in 4, in probably his best ever performance.
The overall h2h remains 19-4, but it’s very clear from the above that Stan simply isn’t intimidated by Nole anymore. He knows he can compete on an even basis. It appears that five setters afford him the time to get comfortable with the level required, as he keeps on losing the best-of-three encounters. Which matter... only a bit, really. It’s the five-set matches that define careers, and in their entire careers there has only ever been one over in straight sets, and that was by retirement (Wawrinka pulling out). Five of their seven matches over the longer distance have gone the full nine yards.
Why is that? The game patterns are not a good match-up from Djokovic’s point of view, basically. His own groundstrokes, which normally dictate play, just give the pace for Wawrinka to redirect with his own thunderous shots. Wawrinka can time the ball whilst standing up near the baseline, and fire it down the line simply too quickly for even a master defender like Djokovic to cover. We are probably talking less than 10 rallies in a match when this happens, but those 10 are enough to flip it from the usual situation of Djokovic being a strong favourite to it being a knife-edge encounter.
Wawrinka also serves bombs, again taking away a key strength of the Djokovic game, his usual ability to get returns into play and not just live but with good depth that negates the serve. That makes Djokovic take more cuts at things on the edge of reach, and spray it more often than normal.
It all says that winning this is tough for Djokovic, which returns us to the opening question of just how close to full fitness he currently is. If he is not 100% then he surely can’t win. The worry would be that he looked tired in the humidity of Friday during sets three and four against Monfils, and that was an unusually straightforward match for a Slam semi in Tennis (as opposed to conditions) terms. If his endurance was lacking there... Wawrinka by contrast looked very hot but also strong against Nishikori in his Semi. In fact it was his conditioning that arguably won him that match.
Given the questions, given the knife-edged element of the match-up anyway, I have to side with Wawrinka. Given the history it would be a fool who said any less than five, so in that many.

[Antepli Ejderha]

Grand Slam No.4

Very interesting first set so far, Djokovic dominated the opening games and then Wawrinka hit back. Heading for a tiebreak at the moment.

[Janik]

Grand Slam No.4

It's now in that breaker, which has already included some incredible points. 5-1 Djokovic at the change of ends...

[Antepli Ejderha]

Grand Slam No.4

You're right about the incredible tennis Janik, some of it has been breathtaking and of a standard I've rarely seen.

Djokovic wins the tiebreaker to 1.

[Janik]

Grand Slam No.4

7-1 to Djoker. Wawrinka won a jaw dropping point to claw 0-2 back to 1-2. But then Nole returned the favour with a backhand pass down the line that even had Stan applauding. But it also seemed to beat him up mentally.

[Janik]

Grand Slam No.4

Probably good for the match that Djokovic won that opening set. If he had dropped it after being 5-2 up it might have seem him tail away. Wawrinka seems likely to last the course, not sure that's true of Novak.

[Janik]

Grand Slam No.4

Djokovic chunks in two double faults to be broken from 40-15 up. His serve is all over the place suddenly. But a busted shoulder might do that to a player.

However Stan is currently handing the break straight back...

[Janik]

Grand Slam No.4

Or not. Holds from 0-40 down.
This feels like a big period of the match. Djokovic has messed with Andy Murray's mind by playing possum before, but is he doing that here or is this for real this time?

[Janik]

Grand Slam No.4

Not playing possum, because Novak broke back. However a break for Stan at 5-4 means we will go at least four. Time to settle in for the long haul. Not that I'm going anywhere as the cat is asleep on my lap and he definitely isn't moving.

[Various Artist]

Grand Slam No.4

How's the circulation in the old legs, Janik? The haul doesn't look like getting shorter any time soon.

[Gerontophile]

Grand Slam No.4

I was going to slate Djokovic for getting the trainer on again, but the camera showed his foot, and it is not pretty.

[Janik]

Grand Slam No.4

Various Artist wrote: How's the circulation in the old legs, Janik? The haul doesn't look like getting shorter any time soon.

I stood up. He nicked the armchair. I'm now sitting on the floor. Not comfortable, but more so than Stan is feeling serving for the match...

[Janik]

Grand Slam No.4

Done.

Wawrinka 3-0 in Slam Finals. Big match player.

[Various Artist]

Grand Slam No.4

Brilliant stuff, so pleased for him.

Again we should be asking the question, when do we include Stan in a Big Five, Three, or whatever? That's him once again level with Andy Murray for Slams, and at 3-0 in finals he's got there a damn sight more efficiently too.

And you should worry Janik, here it's my bed the cat's nicked. Have attempted to open negotiations over territory but repeatedly failed to win any concessions. Just forced ingress down one side to start warming my feet up, so he's attempting to consolidate control of the middle ground by hopping onto my stomach and - owch - kneading away with his claws.

[Various Artist]

Grand Slam No.4

Truce has broken out, cat now curled up by my feet while I catch up witt US Open live blogs. His is a tactical withdrawal, however: for comfortable sleep I'll need space to move, being genetically unable to catnap remotely as effortlessly as him in a confined spot, so he's still winning. Pins and needles already, but toes may get attacked if I wriggle.
Cunning blighter. This went on until 4:30 last night after he sneaked in here late evening. Must shut him downstairs earlier tomorrow.

In the meantime, must say a huge thank-you to you Janik for all your knowledgeable and insightful previews and reports on here throughout the tournament. I've probably said before, I learn twenty times more from your musings at Slam times than I do through other osmosis all the rest of the year, so thanks again for sharing them.