Yes, I wasn't exactly sticking my neck out with that prediction. To my mind Kittel is as awesome and protean as Sagan, but in a slightly more conventional way.
A rest/transfer day tomorrow before the riders hit Italy for Tuesday's stage 4, which runs from Catanzaro (right at the arch of Italy's foot) up the west coast to Praia A Mare. This will likely be a sprint, but with some late bobbly hills there looks definite potential for puncheur attacks.
I embarrassed myself earlier today watching this in a pub with a mate (who's right into his cycling, his missus competes for Britain at triathlon) enthusing about how I too love watching the cycling on telly, just as much for anything as watching the places they go through and the countryside, as much as the race tactics and anything else.
After watching for a bit I suggested "This looks pretty flat for Italy, are they in the Veneto?" "No", he replied, "They're in Holland".
Pleasantly surprised to find myself top of the fantasy league, as I forgot to do any transfers for the weekend so missed putting Kittel in. But then I noticed that there's no Toro :-(
Dillier is out as well as Peraud but getting through two early sprint stages with only a couple of abandonments is not bad going for a GT.
Virtual GC (times referenced to Dumoulin):
0:00 Dumoulin
0:06 Amador
0:13 Jungels
0:19 Nibali
0:22 Kruisjwijk
0:24 Valverde
0:28 Fuglsang
0:30 Chaves
0:32 Zakarin
0:33 Hesjedal, Uran
0:36 Majka
0:38 Monfort
0:40 Landa
0:47 Pozzo
----------------------
1:58 Geniez
2:41 Niemiec
2:52 Anton
7:30 Cunego
delicatemoth wrote: the riders hit Italy for Tuesday's stage 4, which runs from Catanzaro (right at the arch of Italy's foot) up the west coast to Praia A Mare. This will likely be a sprint, but with some late bobbly hills there looks definite potential for puncheur attacks.
Yeah, this looks really interesting. Something you would hardly ever see with the bookies is a race where Kittel is the favourite, but 7/1 against!
Basically it's a punt as to whether or not the group will stay together, get selective, or the day's break will take it, or a late attack will come off. There are a few km of flat run in too, for the sprint teams to try to pull it back perhaps as well.
I noticed that Valverde was 33/1 for today so have some pennies on him each way. There is a ramp of 18% on that final climb and the chance for Valverde to get a time gap plus some bonification on the GC contenders is one he doesn't usually pass up. Similarly I have also taken Ulissi and Moser, but just for the win in each case there.
Given the interesting finale and it not being entirely clear who might chase I imagine there will be quite a bunfight to get in the morning break. There's about 70 riders who are more than five minutes down on GC and there's quite a few of them who can win from a breakaway - Navardauskus, Plaza, Capecchi, Wellens as examples.
Kittel dropped on the coast road before they reach the final climb. There's a rather shapeless move dangling off the front of what's left of the peloton.
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